Výnosy a straty TOP investorov sveta

[jonatanus]

[jonatanus]

Peter Schiff Was Right
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

[jonatanus]

Peter Schiff Was Right
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

happy end? ne tak celkom
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kW64YYcUso

akosi nechapem. zase niekdo co presne vedel co sa stane, akorat skoncil tak isto jak zvysok sveta co nevedelo nic...

[jonatanus]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Citadel Investment Group LLC, the Chicago-based hedge-fund firm run by Kenneth Griffin, lost 13 percent in November, bringing the decline for the year to 47 percent, according to two people familiar with the matter.

http://www.marketfolly.com/2008/11/hedg ... mbers.html
Steven Cohen's SAC Capital was -12% for October and now find themselves -18% year (to je este relativne slusne, aj ked cohen je top 1-2 co sa tyka dlhodobeho performance)
Bruce Kovner's Caxton Associates is faring decently this year. Their Global Investment fund was up 2.6% for October and sits up 7.25% year-to-date.
Paulson & Co's dominance continues. Their Advantage Plus fund is up 29.4% for the year after posting a +3.8% gain in October

[jonatanus]

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/r ... 17-in.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Renaissance Underperforms S&P by 17% In April

Demonstrating just how massive the ongoing quant (and market) dislocation is, the most recent performance numbers for Jim Simons monster RIEF fund, which is arguably one of the largest quant funds in the world with $100 billion in total capacity (comps being BGI, Getco and Highbridge, the last of which incidentally was responsible for the massive market spike on Thursday afternoon as it force-deleveraged through its owner JP Morgan), indicate that it is underperfoming the S&P by almost 17% Month To Date. One can only imagine what is going on at the internal-only Medallion Fund. The astrophysicists have failed. Hopefully not terminally, although as RIFF is also woefully below its benchmark, these may be dark times for secretive, chainsmoking Jim.

As Zero Hedge has warned, when it comes to quant funds, the performance distribution is not a simple zero sum: the market's very topology is held in place by a smoothly functioning quant sector. Its absence results in abnormal and outsized index gyrations, incidentally like the one experienced by the S&P500 in the last 5 minutes of trading on Friday.

It would be critical for the MSM to pick up on this topic, as the last time RIEF underperformed so poorly was the summer of 2007, which as everyone knows culminated with the global quant implosion in early August that year. The last thing the current jittery market needs right now is a repeat event of that scale.

ps. clanok+interview so simonsom (z 2000):
http://chinese-school.netfirms.com/abac ... imons.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[radvan]

pekne ... no na kazdeho raz dojde ... jasne ze sa z toho pozbieraju, ale pekne ich to nachytalo ... tento april vyzera, ze sa chova rovnako ako v august 2007 ...

[JUGGLER]

Pred deviatimi rokmi povedal, že v 65 pôjde do dôchodku a bude cestovať. Teraz má 70.
Tak mu treba.
Je a bude legenda, ale mohol odísť na vrchole ako najväčší boh.

[jonatanus]

Combined with the 18.7% underperformance for the month of April, RenTec's external fund is
now down 27% versus the S&P since April 1.

[jonatanus]

Combined with the 18.7% underperformance for the month of April, RenTec's external fund is
now down 27% versus the S&P since April 1.

RIEF Underperforms S&P 4.72% In May, 31.81% Since March

[jan]

$132 billion mutual fund.
The fund, managed by Los Angeles-based Capital Group Cos., is the biggest U.S. stock mutual fund, with 60 percent more assets than its closest rival.

Growth Fund’s assets peaked at $202 billion in October 2007, falling 35 percent through June 30 as the S&P 500 dropped 38 percent.
Growth Fund outperformed 96 percent of similarly managed funds in the past 10 years, rising 3.3 percent annually, according to Morningstar. It’s also beaten the S&P 500 over five years, 10 years and 25 years

Growth Fund is led by 11 managers, called portfolio counselors, and roughly 50 research analysts, all of whom make their own decisions on investments rather than seeking consensus

Size No Problem as Capital Group’s Growth Fund Beats S&P 500
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... E8aZLFuNXo" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[jonatanus]

tak to snad neni ani pravda.. za posledne 2 roky sa "vygumovali":
griffin 2008 -55%
lampert 2008 ? ale hoooooodne (shld, c, azn..)
pabrai 2008 -59.1%, -60.9%, and -60%
najlepsi mutual fund manager miller (fre..)
madoff
simons 2009 drawdown cez 30% (neviem jak je ytd..) (btw. 2008 +80%)
buffett uz tiez nic moc, 2008 -32%, 2009 je zatial underperform

tak nam z tych TOP uz ostava snad len cohen (2008 len okolo -18% tusim)... akorat citam..
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5B31YT20091204" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Of course, no one knows for sure. But court documents and interviews with many industry sources familiar with the case show that agent Kang may be focusing in on Steven A. Cohen and his $12.9 billion SAC Capital Advisors, L.P.

Reuters has learned that Kang investigated allegations of trading irregularities at SAC two years ago, though the inquiry concluded with no charges being filed against the firm.
...
The Galleon investigation has potentially produced a new lead for Kang to pursue against SAC, one of the world's largest and most successful hedge funds. A cooperating witness, Richard Choo-Beng Lee, is expected to provide prosecutors with alleged evidence of insider trading he may have committed between 1999 and 2009 -- a period that includes a five-year stint at SAC, according to the court documents.

ked skonci cohen v base koli insider tradingu, tak prakticky cela hedge fund smotanka skoncila... uplne cela... miliardy im sice ostatnu (tym co neskoncia v base), ale uz to bude definitivny konec prupovidok o genioch..

[JUGGLER]

Simons podľa mňa ožije.
Je to génius.

Arbitráže jednoducho prestali fungovať, on nájde súvislosti a preprogramuje sa, alebo to nabudúce včas zastaví.
Drawdown 30% nie je fatálny, zrovna taký som mal aj ja v 2004.

Aj iní na špici to asi rozchodia, len už nebude dôvera.
Ale presne to trebalo špekulatívnemu kapitálu.
Keď už nemajú koho požierať, musia sami seba.

[jonatanus]

Simons podľa mňa ožije.

On October 10, 2009, Simons announced he would retire on January 1, 2010 but remain at Renaissance as nonexecutive chairman.

Aj iní na špici to asi rozchodia, len už nebude dôvera.

no -50% je prakticky bankrot, pretoze aby brali peniaze zo zisku musia spravit +100% na new high.. a to sa nikomu nechce..
griffin napr. zaklada investicnu banku, chce konkurovat GS.

a s tou doverou to bude fakt zle. lebo -50% v najlepsich hedgefondoch, to fakt mozes miesto toho radsej nakupit SPY... nemali byt te hedge fondy alternativa k akciovemu long only riziku... mali.. nesu.. do ktoreho by si dal peniaze? do amaranth? k madoffovi? alebo poctivemu geniovi "buffett-wannabe" co spravi -50%?




preco je peter lynch dodnes povazovany mozno za najlepsieho mutual fond menezera (29% p.a.)? lebo stihol vcas odist..
simons aj buffett to mali davno zabalit a uchovat si status majstra galaxie..

Two friends were at a party held at the mansion of a billionaire. One said, “Wow! Look at this place! This guy has everything!” The other said, “Yes, but I have something he'll never have: enough.”

[jan]

Tento rok chlapikovi vysiel:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1261358 ... s_business" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Mr. Tepper's hedge-fund firm has racked up about $7 billion of profit so far this year—with Mr. Tepper on track to earn more than $2.5 billion for himself, according to people familiar with the matter. That is among the largest one-year takes in recent years.

[jonatanus]

simons
http://www.marketfolly.com/2010/06/rena ... -fund.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[JUGGLER]

simons
http://www.marketfolly.com/2010/06/rena ... -fund.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Parádna kariéra Simonsa - jeho zhodnotenie z miliardami:

1993: 40%
1994: 70%
1995: 38%
1996: 31%
1997: 21%
1998: 41%
1999: 24%
2000: 98%
2001: 31%
2002: 29%
2003: 25%
2004: 28%

2008: 80%
2009: 39%
odchod do dôchodku

[jonatanus]

Medallion (insider fond, kde mal prachy on a zamestnanci)
1988 30%
1989 -4%
1990 56%
1991 39%
1992 34%
1993 39%
1994 71%
1995 39%
1996 28%
1997 31%
1998 31%
1999 30%
2000 99%
2001 34%
2002 26%
2003 22%
2004 25%
2005 30%
2006 44%
2007 79%
2008 80%
2009 39%

penaze pre outside investorov boli v RIEF fonde, ktory zas nebol az taky zazrak.

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/ ... port-says/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The discrepancy comes after the $5.5 billion fund RIEF also lost money in 2008 while the internal Medallion fund jumped 80 percent, The Journal said.

Renaissance managers told the newspaper that the two funds strategies are different and that RIEF never was advertised to provide the same returns as Medallion. RIEF invests in United States stocks, generally holding its positions for a year, while Medallion makes much faster trades, dipping in and out of stocks around the globe, The Journal said.

[jonatanus]

[jonatanus]

niederhoffer
http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/thewro ... wrong.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[jonatanus]

ked skonci cohen v base koli insider tradingu, tak prakticky cela hedge fund smotanka skoncila...

SAC Capital gets government subpoena

[spoty]

SAC Capital gets government subpoena

čo ty vieš, možno idú za svedkov

[jonatanus]

Former SAC Capital portfolio manager pleads guilty to insider-related charges
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-i ... iteid=bnbh" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[jonatanus]

RT @zerohedge: Game over Paulson: YTD -31%

[radvan]

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/08/10/ ... &seid=auto" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

... tych 31% je cislo k piatku, takze to este nezahrna pondelnajsi selloff ... este zavysi jak bude finishovat year ...

[Rokosák]

Prilis sa nemusi obavat o dalsie straty. Fond zavrie a otvori novy. Predsa nebude dobiehat 31 percentnu stratu. V novom fonde zacne od nuly a brat 20% od prveho centu zisku.

[filip glasa]

bohužial keď ten starý zatvorí, tak do nového sa mu investori až tak nepohrnú.

[Rokosák]

az tak sa hrnut nebudu, ale ide to zvladnut. Databazy zavretych fondov nie su zverejnovane a ich (obycajne slabe) vynosy nie su do historickych vynosov zapocitane. Po roku ci dvoch priazniveho trhu je za vodou.

[filip glasa]

Paulsona každý dobre pozná v médiách je každú chvíľu. A ak by tento fond zatvoril, tak by si to každý dobre pamätal.

[Rokosák]

To tvrdis na zaklade skusenosti, konkretnych faktov, studii, alebo predstav o mysleni investorov v hedzovych fondoch?

[JUGGLER]

Prilis sa nemusi obavat o dalsie straty. Fond zavrie a otvori novy. Predsa nebude dobiehat 31 percentnu stratu. V novom fonde zacne od nuly a brat 20% od prveho centu zisku.

To tvrdis na zaklade skusenosti, konkretnych faktov, studii, alebo predstav o mysleni investorov v hedzovych fondoch? Pokladáš ich za idiotov?

Paulson je najsledovanejší investor na svete. Nikdy by sa k tomu neznížil.

[jonatanus]

no vzhladom na to ze niederhoffer dokazal vygumovat 2 fondy (podstatne vacsie straty jak -31%), paulson ma este minimalne jednu sancu

analytici z internetovej bubliny okolo roku 2000, co mali skoncit v base, v lepsom pripade chodit kanalmi - blodget, meeker, grubman.. su veselo dalej aktivni a mozte si citat ich analyzi a su velice respektovani... (grubman neviem presne co robi, ale tiez sa nejakym sposobm vratil, meeker je vysokopostavena analyticka v MS a blodget - the business insider....)

firmy typu GS aspol PRAVIDELNE DLHODOBO odrbavaju verejnost ale aj vlastnych klientov (CDSka na ktorych zbohatol paulson)... komu to vadi? nevsimol som si ze by ta firma mala nejaky zavazny problem s ich imageom.

a nakonec ved netreba chodit ani tak daleko, staci sa pozret na slovensku politiku.. co napr. taky pan meciar.. koho dneska trapi co robil 94-98? nikoho... za fica si veselo politikoval.. keby sa teraz dostal do parlamentu tak si dalej veselo politikuje...

=> ludia maju velmi kratku pamat

[kolega]

verim ze ako tradera ma nemusia zaujimat uspech ci neuspech inych.... ludi nezmenime a trapit ma to nebude (asi som na take veci rezignoval)

[JUGGLER]

Mňa to vcelku zaujíma. Inšpirujem sa lepšími.
Viacerí sme videli problémy pred 2008, ale len málokto dokázal na tom zarobiť.
V kríze sa vyrojili tisíce, ktorí problémy zrazu videli jasne...ale kde boli predtým?
Po kríze sa stal Paulson legenda. Pretavil svoju analýzu do trejdu v ktorom zarobil miliardy.
Zarobil na poklese a pokial viem aj na raste.
To, že je momentálne v strate, nemusí nič znamenať. Uvidíme na konci roka.

[jolaus]

vedeli by ste niekto aspon priblizne napisat akym sposobom si portfolio manzery beru poplatky za svoju spravu? beru si len nejaku cast z nadvynosu ktory dosiahnu oproti nejakemu benchmarku alebo si vzdy beru percenta z celkoveho vynosu ktory dosiahnu. myslim ze buffett ked mal este svoje partnerstva tak si bral podiel iba z nadvynosu ktory spravil oproti indexu ale nie som si na 100% isty. napriklad spominany paulson to ma ako neviete nahodou?

[filip glasa]

majú stanovenú tzv. hurdle rate napríklad nad 5%, alebo nad 6% a podobne - dovtedy poplatok za výkon neberú. Ale poplatok za správu zvyčajne áno.

[Rokosák]

Poplatky portfoliovych menezerov zavisia od organizacie. U hedzovych fondov existuje zakladny spravovaci poplatok typicky vo vyske 2% rocne. Okrem toho zo zisku su poplatky typicky 20%. Ako spomina Glasa, zisky mozu byt pocitane od hurdle rate, ale aj od nuly. Dolezity je vsak aj High Water Mark, to znamena, ze zisk musi byt kumulativny. Ak strati fond prvy rok 6% a dalsi rok ziska 10% tak su polatky iba zo zisku vo vyske 4%. Niekedy vsak fond strati tolko, ze je neobycajne tazke doviezt ho do kladnych cisel. Vyhodnejsie je fond zavriet a otvorit novy. Je to obycajne uspesna taktika, ako spomina Jonatanus.

Juggler, odpoved je "zo skusenosti".

[Ladis]

Nějací mladí žurnalisti, asi se zabývají akciemi prvním rokem, nebo vůbec ne, píšou v novinách, že je John Paulson považován za hrdinu té krize. Ovšem kdo vidí dál, ten ví, že John Paulson je zločinec, který čeká na trest za to, že ruinoval podvodem největší pojišťovnu světa AIG, za pomoci několika dalších gaunerů z Goldman Sachs a Detsche Bank a jiných. Zatím žádá AIG miliardy dolarů náhradu za podvody od Bank of America. Jesli vedeni AIG není spřáteleno s vedením banky Goldman Sachs a není spřáteleno s Johnem Paulsonem, musí pak AIG žádat soudem miliardy dolarů náhradu za škody i od GS a od Paulsona.

Hedgefondy si berou jako poplatek každý rok manažerský poplatek 2-5% z celého kapitálu a dalších 20% až 44% z výnosu za rok, jestli výnos byl dosažen. Ten lump 70-letý James Harris Simons si roku 2008 vzal asi 49% z kapitálu klientů.

Warren Buffett si bral jako poplatek v 60. letech 25% z výnosu nad 6% z kapitálu klientů, ten výnos 6% ročně z kapitálu klientů byl bez poplatku.

[JUGGLER]

Závisí od výkonnosti fondu a rizika straty. Takže od kvality manažéra.
Simons nemá problém brať 45/4,5 ( 45% zo zisku, 4,5 za správu).
Pri takých výnosoch a nízkom riziku je ,,king,,..je k nemu nával a môže si klásť podmienky:

1988 30%
1989 -4%
1990 56%
1991 39%
1992 34%
1993 39%
1994 71%
1995 39%
1996 28%
1997 31%
1998 31%
1999 30%
2000 99%
2001 34%
2002 26%
2003 22%
2004 25%
2005 30%
2006 44%
2007 79%
2008 80%
2009 39%

Takí, čo robia 20-30% p.a. berú približne 30/3, 20/2
Takí, čo 10-20%: 10-20/2

A sráči, ktorí sú priemer ( a priemer je úbohý - len trochu vyšší ako benchmarky), alebo len začínajú ( takže si musia urobiť meno), môžu byť radi ked dostanú 10/2, 10/1
Po kríze podľa mňa väčšina pýta 10/2 a môžú byť radi, že majú klientov.

P.S. Neviem prečo nepoužívajú progresívne modely. Napr., že poplatok za správu je fixný, ale podiel na zisku stúpa/klesá s výnosom. Takisto by som rád videl na trhu machrov, ktorí si vypýtajú 50/50 ale zagarantovali by investorovi vklad. To by však nesmeli byť takí pažraví, spravovať menšie fondy a v stabilite výkonov by museli byť takí vyrovnaní ako Simmons. Hold - na trhu je pretlak špekulatívneho kapitalu, ale nedostatok špičkových traderov.

[jonatanus]

výnosom. Takisto by som rád videl na trhu machrov, ktorí si vypýtajú 50/50 ale zagarantovali by investorovi vklad. To by však nesmeli byť takí pažraví, spravovať menšie fondy a v stabilite výkonov by museli byť takí vyrovnaní ako Simmons. Hold - na trhu je pretlak špekulatívneho kapitalu, ale nedostatok špičkových traderov.

simonsovi sa dari len v tom malom uzavrenom fonde, v tych verejnych to neni ziaden zazrak...

v podstate neexistuje velky fond co by generoval dlhodobo (velmi)nadpriemerny vynos s nizkou volatilitou.. TOP je simonsov maly fond (~$5b).. ale inac... vacsina borcov zahucala v 2008... a nova hviezda - paulson - vydrzalo mu to 2 roky...

=> proste to s velkym kapitalom nejde.. pri nakom $100mil fonde este mozno hej, lenze ak ten zacne mat nadpriemerne vysledky tak mu rychlo vyskoci AUM a stane sa zase velkym.. a velke uz nedokazu generovat zajimave zhodnotenie...

[Rokosák]

Nepresne som sa vyjadril vyssie, kde som tvrdil, ze: "Ak strati fond prvy rok 6% a dalsi rok ziska 10% tak su poplatky iba zo zisku vo vyske 4%" nahradte percenta absolutnymi cislami.