Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Trading, tipy na obchody a investície, zverejňvanie pozícií, denníky traderov a investorov

Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Pon 11 18, 2013 8:09 pm

BTU out na SL z 19,37
+4,4%
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Uto 11 19, 2013 12:05 pm

TSLA in 10ks za 119.05
SL 115,34
PT 129,05
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Uto 11 19, 2013 4:55 pm

TSLA SL posunute na BE.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Pon 11 25, 2013 10:05 am

TSLA out na BE za 119.
Skoda, PT bol 129,05 a max 129
http://goo.gl/y6TK5
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Uto 12 03, 2013 5:38 pm

RHT SL za 44.56
-4,3%
http://goo.gl/y6TK5
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Uto 12 03, 2013 11:48 pm

ERJ out na SL za 29,97
-1,28%
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Štv 12 05, 2013 10:14 pm

GSVC in 100ks za 10,47
pri pripadnom poklese este dokupim. 1-2 dopkupy.

Neviem, ci ma niekto na tuto akciu nejaky nazor.
Zda sa mi celkom zaujimava. Takmer ako ETFko sa 20% cenou pod NAV.

http://gsvcap.com/charts/
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gsv-capit ... 36492.html

AK by ste mali k nej nejaky postreh, budem rad za kazdy komentar.
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Sob 12 07, 2013 7:03 pm

Skusim este nieco o GSVC:

http://tradingblog.esignal.com/2013/12/ ... s-rush-in/
Taking Down GSV Capital
Michael Comeau

I just took down a slug of GSV Capital (NASDAQ:GSVC), a publicly-traded technology investment fund. I’ll give a hat tip to TechStrat author Sean Udall who’s been discussing the huge discount to NAV.

GSV is trading at about $10.36, which is a 22% to its last reported NAV of $13.26. However, that was as of September 30. Since then, Twitter (TNYSE:WTR), which accounted for 17.6% of assets then, came public and added at least $2+ per share in NAV, which more than offsets the disappointing performance of holdings Chegg (LON:CHGG) and Violin Memory (NYSE:VMEM).

Additionally, as Sean pointed out recently, GSV has big stakes in two pre-IPO properties: Dropbox, which is going to be an absolute monster deal, and Palantir Technologies, which just raised money at a huge valuation.

So while GSV is uber-risky considering that it is heavily concentrated in Twitter and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), and holds so many relatively illiquid stakes in private companies, the risk-reward looks pretty good here.

I’d also point out that GSV has taken a huge nosedive while tech stocks, including social media names, have been doing just fine.

Check out the chart below, which shows a comparison between GSV and the social media ETF (NASDAQ:SOCL). Either the IPO market’s about to die or GSV’s got some catching up to do. I’m speculating on the latter.


Obrázok

http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=2 ... ,TWTR,VMEM

TWTR: 17,6% z portfolia. (podla mna ten NAV bol pocitany z IPO ceny TWTR)
CHGG: 5,6%
VMEM: len 3,2%

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2 ... -miss.aspx

With the large first-day gains made by Twitter, the market probably expected a larger net asset value (NAV) increase by GSV Capital. Unfortunately, all of the gains in Twitter took place during November, so the company can't include those increases by the end of the third quarter. The good news is that the listed NAV of $13.16 at the end of September has Twitter valued at only $23.56. The current price for Twitter is around $42


Na druhej strane:
One of the biggest concerns with this investment concept continues to be the large management fees. The fees are 2% of assets and 20% of profits. In the latest quarter, the investment management fee hit $1.3 million while total operating expenses hit $3 million. This amount was without even hitting the incentive fees of 20% that should kick in with the huge gains from the Twitter shares.

Two major reasons NAV only gained $0.29 during the third quarter were the high fees and the losses mentioned below with Violin Memory. The unrealized appreciation during the quarter was a decent $8.9 million, but the above-mentioned $3 million in expenses took a huge bite out of those gains. At the current annual run rate of over $12 million in operating expenses, the company has to generate 5% investment gains in order to just cover its operating costs. In addition, the recent $69 million convertible note and gains from Twitter will only increase the 2% management fees each quarter.


Co sa tyka obchodu, uvazujem este s jednym-dvomi dokupmi do straty, celkovy SL tesne pod 9.
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
tilbur
 
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod Matej1992 » Ned 12 08, 2013 10:41 am

Vyzerá to v pohode, len podľa mňa bude stále cena pod NAV, nakoľko niektoré akcie sú ešte len v pre-IPO fáze čiže možno NAV pôjde nižšie(a možno vyššie kto vie) ked ich uvedú na burzu a druhá vec je že zisk bude stále záporný kvôli odmenám manažmentu, predsa len vlastnia firmy ktoré nevyplácajú temer žiadne dividendy takže príjmy nemajú mať odkiaľ, pokiaľ budú len držať akcie. Rovnako všetko sú to firmy ktoré majú PE strašne vysoko a sú to len "stávky na budúci rast a schopnosť manažmentu vytĺcť z toho zisk." Tieto akcie sa môžu v priebehu jedného dňa zrútiť o 20% a viac podľa mňa preto tá neistota a podhodnotenie na trhu. Ale zase podhodnotenie 20% je tiež dosť, čiže možno by stálo za hriech aspoň vypísať nejakú putku so strikom 10.
Aké boli v minulosti podhodnotenia k vtedajšej hodnote NAV? Ideálne by bolo porovnať týchto 20% s maximálnou hodnotou podhodnotenia, aby sme vedeli kam až by to mohlo padnúť (taký "záchytný bod," nemyslím 0$ :-D ).
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Pon 12 09, 2013 11:08 am

Je dost dolezite vediet, na zaklade coho pocitali NAV.
Pri TWTR kupovali za 17,21 v objeme 1,83mil. ks. Fair value akcie uvadzaju 23,56. Trhova je nieco pod 43$

Net assets totaled $254.3 million or $13.16 per share at September 30, 2013, an increase of $0.29 per share from net assets of $12.87 per share at June 30, 2013.


Z tohoto to vyzera, ze pri vypocte NAV beru do uvahy cenu TWTR 23,56.
Pri VMEM utrpeli investicnu stratu cca 10,65mil USD.
Ich druha najvacsia investicia Palantir Technologies. Ti navysuju kapital dost casto. Cize aj tam by sa mala dat relativne dobre ocenit hodnota ich investicie.

Pozeral som, ako sa vyvyjala ich investicia vo FB. Zrejme tiez kupovali v pre-IPO faze. Neskor, ked bol FB obchodovatelny na burze, predali polovicu investicie vo a tym aj dosiahli zisk z uzavretej pozicie.

To iste mozu spravit s TWTR.

Ked si to takto nahrubo zratam (len poziciu v TWTR). Na konci prveho stvrtroka odhadovali fair value TWTR na 18,53$
Maju 1,83mil. ks. Teraz je cena 44,95. Co predstavuje nerealizovany zisk: 48,5mln $. Pred pol rokom sa akcia obchodovala za cca 8, teraz je to 10,30. Celkovo je emitovanych 19,32mln ks akcii.
Co by cca sedelo. Celkove portfolio bude hlavne ovplyvnovat strata pri VMEM a pripadny zisk z investicie Palantir Tech.

K 31.3. ich NAV bolo 12.69$ a cena akcie 8$/ks. Teraz je cena akcie 10,3 a NAV 13-15$. Cize akcia vyzerala skor predrazena pred par mesiacmi ako teraz podhodnotena.

Ako je tu vidno, aj pri nejakej triezvej uvahe o hodnote ich investicneho portfolia a snahe odhadnut hodnotu firmy je vela otaznikov.
Zo skusenosti mozem povedat, ze vobec nie je jednoduche najst nejaku vyhodu na trhu oproti ostatnym, pre nas malych investorov. Ak by to bolo tak, ako si myslim, vstupovali by do pozicie omnoho vacsie fondy. V poslednom case vsak vidno skor zbavovanie sa akcie. Je to vsak myslienka obchodu, na zaklade ktorej do pozicie vstupujem a vobec nemusim mat pravdu, preto je nutne pouzit SL a takisto spravne odhadnut velkost pozicie v portfoliu.
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
tilbur
 
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Uto 12 10, 2013 11:43 pm

GSVC dnes +7,7%
SL posunuty na BE
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tilbur
 
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Uto 12 17, 2013 9:40 pm

TMO in 60ks za 102,24
SL 99,8
http://goo.gl/y6TK5
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Štv 12 19, 2013 11:56 am

TMO SL posunuty na BE.
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Str 01 01, 2014 11:01 pm

Zacnem tu zverejnovat obchody.
Chcel by som skusit, ci system bude fungovat. Akcie nebudem zatial realne obchodovat, bude to cisto len paper trading.
Casovy horizont:1rok. uvidim, ci vydrzim.
Tu su pravidla, nad ktorymi som zatial uvazoval:
ciel:prekonat S&P500


Hlasim ukoncenie modeloveho portfolia.
Tu je vysledok:

Obrázok

Obrázok

Celkove zhodnotenie:
Dodrziavanie pravidiel:
Celkom dobre, aj ked som niekedy daval tipy, kde som isiel podla svojho nazoru, nie podla screenera, ktory som sa rozhodol testovat.(napr.short TSLA)

V druhom polroku som uz daval do jedneho titulu viac % z celkoveho kapitalu, lebo som nechcel mat zbytocne vela titulov v portfoliu a vela obchodov vo vlakne.

Celkovo bol rok vynikajuci. Cize ziadna vacsia korekcia. Napr. Ladis pasivnym investovanim dosiahol 19%. (gratulujem mu aj k tomu)

Podarilo sa mi prekonat SPY, i ked nie o vela. Prvy polrok som bol zbytocne pesimisticky. Tam sa dalo vytazit viac vyssim celkovym zainvestovanim.

Ako dalej:
Rozmyslam, ze budem zverejnovat tipy aj nadalej. Len ich nebude vela a nebudem to riadit ako komplexne portfolio.
Nieco podobne, ako GSVC. Kde som rozpisal myslienku obchodu. Cize budu to take moje poznamky na papier.
Este kratko ku GSVC. Titul od vstupu do obchodu narastol o 15,47%. Stale si myslim, ze ma potencial ist este hore.
Ja som v pozicii cez long januarove call opcie so strike 10. (kupoval som ich vtedy, ako som daval obchod tuto) Ocakavam zverejnenie NAV fondu k 31.12.2013, co by este mohlo sposobit kratkodoby rast.

Celkovo som asi 80% titulov aj realne zaobchodoval, podobne ako som pisal.
Neslo o hladanie svateho gralu, skor o realny trading. Ukazat, ako by sa mohlo riadit cele portfolio hlavne pre novacikov.

Vsetko dobre v 2014 Vam prajem.
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Pia 01 10, 2014 4:18 pm

Myslienka tazko shortovatelnych akcii sa mi velmi paci.
Skusim preto tuto davat obchody s akciami, ktore maju tazko pozicatelne akcie na short.
Je to len test, takze to berte s rezervou. Budu to divokejsie tituly ako doteraz. Casovy horizont 1/2rok, potom uvidim, ako dalej.

Zacnem tymto:

RSOL in 400ks za 4,16. SL 3,5
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Štv 01 16, 2014 4:44 pm

RSOL posunuty SL na 3,74
URRE in 300ks za 3,84
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Štv 01 16, 2014 4:48 pm

URRE SL na 3,38
Podla mna toto budu velmi nebezpecne tipy.
Ak ich niekto nahodou bude obchdovat,len na vlasne riziko.
http://goo.gl/y6TK5
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Štv 01 16, 2014 9:47 pm

RSOL : breakout. SL posunuta na 3,98
Zisk nevyberam, zatial.
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Pia 01 24, 2014 4:38 pm

RSOL out na 3,94
-5,3%
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Pia 01 24, 2014 4:49 pm

Skusime takto:

nakup 1ks JAN 31 '14 182 Call Option za 1,12
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Pia 01 24, 2014 5:41 pm

Sa mi to mozno podarilo dostat aj do tabulky: (oneskorene opcne data)

http://goo.gl/y6TK5
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Pon 01 27, 2014 9:44 am

URRE SL v piatok na 3.38
-12%
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Uto 01 28, 2014 5:20 pm

short LIVE 30ks za 22,85
SL 25,2
Prílohy
LIVE2.jpg
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Uto 01 28, 2014 5:32 pm

Je to dost rychle. SL posunuta na 23,5.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Uto 01 28, 2014 10:19 pm

LIVE akcia pekne ide. momentalne -20%. Pri vstupe bolo 100K akcii na short, teraz 84,4K.
Drzim minimalne do zajtra. SL na BE.
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Uto 01 28, 2014 11:40 pm

Nakoniec som LIVE ukoncil v AH za 15
cize daytrade, zisk 34%
pricina poklesu, zrejme tento clanok: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1973861 ... oted-stock

http://goo.gl/y6TK5
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod JUGGLER » Str 01 29, 2014 12:20 am

Pekne! Chcel som tiež naskočiť, ale prišiel som pozde.
In the stock market, timing is everything...
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Templeton
"be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," Buffett
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Str 01 29, 2014 5:09 pm

Moze sa podla tych obchodov zdat, ze si vymyslam. (lebo som trafil aj vrchol aj dno)
Ale hlasim, ako to obchodujem.
Prílohy
LIVE1.jpg
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
tilbur
 
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Str 02 12, 2014 10:13 pm

ECA 350ks nakup za 18,42
SL 16,6
Dlhodobejsi trade
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Štv 02 13, 2014 3:02 pm

ECA:Q4 EPS $0.31 vs $0.19 estimate; Guides 30% growth in 2014.

Encana set capital investment target of $2.4-billion-$2.5-billion for the year, lower than the $2.7-billion it spent in 2013.


Encana’s cash flow, a key indicator of its ability to pay for new projects and drilling, fell 16 per cent to $677-million in the fourth quarter.

The company’s net loss widened to $251-million in the quarter from $80-million, a year earlier.

Excluding most one-time items, Encana posted an operating profit of $226-million, or 31 cents per share, down from $296-million, or 40 cents per share, a year earlier


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... e16846797/
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Pia 02 14, 2014 10:04 am

Neviem, cio to niekto sleduje, ale myslim, ze sa opat blizi cas na short.
Ak nieco zaobchodujem, dam to tu.

LiveDeal Inc. (NASDAQ: LIVE) ("LiveDeal" or the "Company"), a publicly traded company that operates livedeal.com, an innovative platform using geo-location to enable businesses to communicate real-time and publish instant offers to nearby consumers, today announced that it has launched livedeal.com in New York City. With over 42,000 eating and drinking locations and $33.6 billion in revenues, New York City represents a massive marketplace to leverage the livedeal.com platform


Obrázok
Prílohy
LIVE.jpg
LIVE.jpg (39.12 KiB) Zobrazené 5732 krát
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Pia 02 14, 2014 7:37 pm

RMTI in 100ks za 13
SL 11.98
http://goo.gl/y6TK5
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Uto 02 18, 2014 11:12 am

LIVE:
klasicka manipulacia. Najskor PR http://finance.yahoo.com/news/livedeal- ... 00255.html, potom upis akcii oznameny v piatok po close: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/ ... eal_s3.htm
Ani v piatok, ani teraz sa nedaju akcie shortovat, tak som do shortu nemohol ist.
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Uto 02 18, 2014 3:41 pm

ECA news:
Blackstone (BX) is in talks to purchase some assets of Encana (ECA), including the $1B Deep Panuke natural gas project off Nova Scotia's coast, NY Post reports.Deep Panuke is a $1B project that benefits from higher gas prices when the cold grips the northeastern U.S., as is happening now.ECA said last week that it was not actively trying to sell Deep Panuke.

http://seekingalpha.com/news/1573831-ny ... -purchases
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Štv 02 20, 2014 4:59 pm

Aby som nerozpraval o FB len tak naprazdno tak takto:
Nakup 1ks FB Sep19'14 60 Put. Uvidim, ale zrejme az do expiracie.
cena: 5.25$

http://goo.gl/y6TK5
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Pia 02 21, 2014 4:28 pm

GGB 250ks in za 6.44
SL 6.18
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Pia 02 21, 2014 4:47 pm

Este update k FB.
Dost dlho som nad tym rozmyslal. Ked vytvori nove high nad 70, idem vonku aj z opcie.
My number one job as a trader is to manage risks not make money.
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod peter.cmorej » Pia 02 21, 2014 4:54 pm

GGB drzim ako hluchy dvere uz mozno aj viac ako 3 roky :) Najprv to vyzeralo ako velmi dlhe buy, hold and pray :) .. aj ked tu som sa krachu nikdy neobaval. Potom ked sa zacala odrazat od dna, tak som vzdy prikupoval a pri obrate zasa odhlahcoval .. take pristipkarenie :) .. ale tymto pristipkarenim som sa dostal k terajsej priemerke nakupu mierne nad 7, takze som celkom spokojny :) To len taka funny prihoda na neskore popoludnie
peter.cmorej
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Uto 02 25, 2014 4:45 pm

TSLA short 5ks za 242,5
SL 257,9
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Re: Tilbur-modelove portfolio

Poslaťod tilbur » Uto 02 25, 2014 5:12 pm

TSLA dalsi predaj mam nastaveny na 252,2 (ak tam dojde)
SL ostava nezmeneny
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