CMG, CF a SRCL

Výber akcií, fundamentálna a technická analýza, obchodovanie vs. investovanie

Re: Hedžový fond Infinity Enhanced Equity Class A

Poslaťod JUGGLER » Štv 05 04, 2017 12:23 am

pbalint píše:Momentalne CMG je high conviction pozicia. 40% upside v priebehu 9 mesiacov je target. SRCL uz drzim nejaky cas, sme mierne v pluse a je tam upside. Na CF sme boli uz 50% v pluse na akciách a na opciach asi 200%, teraz sa dost vratila.


Zobral som CF po 26,11 po earnings. Vcelku dobré oproti tomu, že zvykne sklamať:

CF Industries beats by $0.05, beats on revs (25.51 -0.86) :

Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.05 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.00); revenues rose 3.3% year/year to $1.04 bln vs the $0.99 bln Capital IQ Consensus as record sales volumes were partially offset by lower average selling prices across all segments
Highest sales volume for any quarter in company's history, 4.75 million tons
Largest production volume for any quarter in company's history
Sales volumes for the quarter were significantly higher compared to Q1 of 2016 as increased supply available for sale met strong early season demand for ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) in the Southern Plains and lower Midwest

Additionally, exports of ammonia and UAN were significantly higher year-over-year as the co continues to leverage its North American platform and develop a global portfolio of customers in order to optimize the overall businessAverage selling prices in Q1 of 2017 were lower than average selling prices in Q1 of 2016 due to greater global nitrogen supply availability
The average selling price for ammonia was $307 per ton in Q1 of 2017 compared to $362 per ton in Q1 of 2016.
The average selling price for urea was $248 per ton in Q1 of 2017 compared to $256 per ton in Q1 of 2016
The average selling price for UAN was $171 per ton in Q1 of 2017 compared to $213 per ton in the first quarter of 2016

Outlook:
CF believes nitrogen demand remains strong during the spring application season for nitrogen-consuming crops, including the ~90 million acres of corn expected to be planted in the United States
Wet and cold weather in the Midwest that lasted from March into late April stopped field work and delayed ammonia applications there, with activity having accelerated more recently. Additionally, upgraded products such as urea and UAN will be required to make up for ammonia not applied during the fall or early spring application seasons
The global nitrogen supply surplus continues to pressure marginal producers in China and other regions. Chinese urea production costs are estimated to be $15-$20 per metric ton higher than the middle of 2016 due primarily to higher anthracite coal prices
Published operating rates in China during the first quarter averaged 57%, and there have been significantly lower Chinese urea exports so far this year. Urea exports from China during the first quarter were ~1.2 million metric tons, the lowest quarterly volume since the second quarter of 2013. CF continues to expect 5-6 million metric tons of total urea exports from China in 2017, a decline of up to 44 percent compared to 2016 and up to 64 percent compared to 2015
CF anticipates this uneven pricing environment to continue through 2017, with a spring increase possible before prices return to seasonally low levels during the summer...

U mňa beat by 0,03 (uznávam len Reuters cons. ). Uvidíme zajtra, či sa pohne. Je pekne vyklesaná. Ináč zverejnenia sú slabé ako čaj...pýcha Ameriky je von a nebol to zrovna víťazný tanec. Nikto nechce nakupovať. Som zvedavý na SRCL zajtra večer.
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Re: Hedžový fond Infinity Enhanced Equity Class A

Poslaťod JUGGLER » Štv 05 04, 2017 4:09 pm

Celkom fajn krátkodobý pohyb. Mne stačí. Som vonku. Podržal by som dlhšie, ale trhy a komodity sa nejak tlačia dole...
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Re: Hedžový fond Infinity Enhanced Equity Class A

Poslaťod pbalint » Pia 05 05, 2017 12:07 am

CF budem drzat dlho, uz to bolo na 36, ja som za 24 nakupil, a teraz mam husenkovu drahu s nou. Opcia bola 200% v pluse, teraz je v minuse (strike na 30), ale je to leader v dusíkatých hnojivach, spolu s Yara Internatonal. Maju edge v lacnom plyne z bridlic voci celemu svetu, co je ich feedstock. Cinan nevydrzi dotovat vyrobu z drahych zdrojov donekonecna a ceny hnojiv pojdu hore ked zatvoria kapacity, co sa uz vlastne aj deje.

EUR 1.10 pomaly, takze v EUR merane US indexy to budu mat tazke :-)

SRCL si zahral?
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Re: Hedžový fond Infinity Enhanced Equity Class A

Poslaťod JUGGLER » Pia 05 05, 2017 12:26 am

SRCL som čakal na zverejnenie, lebo ona vie padnúť aj 20%. Posledné 2 zverejnenia mala OK, ale to nestačí.

Zobral som niečo po 87,75..a som ochotný zobrať viac nižšie... je dosť nelikvidná.

Je vcelku fajn, prekonala sa:

Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.09 per share, $0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.05; revenues rose 2.1% year/year to $892.4 mln vs the $874.34 mln Capital IQ Consensus.
Organic revenues grew 2.1%, or 3.6% when adjusted for Manufacturing and Industrial Services.
Adjusted gross profit was $368.7 million, an increase of 0.5% from $366.8 million in the first quarter of last year. Adjusted gross profit as a percentage of revenues was 41.3% compared to 42.0% in the first quarter of last year.

A na tlačovke o chlp dvihla:

Stericycle slightly tweaks FY17 EPS of $4.55-4.75 vs $4.62 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; also tweaks rev guidance of $3.53-3.66 bln vs $3.57 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate (85.73 +0.14) : This compares to prior FY17 guidance for EPS of $4.54-4.74 and revs of $3.51-3.64 bln

Minule slightly znížila , takže ten rast tržieb sa mi páči. Uvidím zajtra, či sa bude dať dokúpiť nižšie. Mala by ísť hore..len zajtra sú payrolls a bude možno trochu nervozita pred volbami vo F.
In the stock market, timing is everything...
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Templeton
"be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," Buffett
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Re: Hedžový fond Infinity Enhanced Equity Class A

Poslaťod pbalint » Pia 05 05, 2017 12:33 am

Hej, presne ten revenue growth bol klucovy, pretoze tam boli obavy, vycerpali si svoj tradicny biznis, a horizontalna expanzia nebola presvedciva, tak ich de-ratli na PE pod 20. Do toho prisiel pricing pressure lebo ich tradicna rozptylena klientska baza sa zacala spajat aby mala silnejsiu vyjednavaciu poziciu. Ked boli na mid 70, tak Goldman Sachs prisla s downgardom a targetom na 63 a celkom tlak vyvolali. Potom sa to neudialo, tak sa prepli zo sell rovno do buy. Ten sell side research je nenormalna pseudoveda. A GS je konzistentne kontrarian indikator. Ale mozno to robia naschvál.
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Re: Hedžový fond Infinity Enhanced Equity Class A

Poslaťod JUGGLER » Sob 05 06, 2017 12:34 am

pbalint píše: Ked boli na mid 70, tak Goldman Sachs prisla s downgardom a targetom na 63 a celkom tlak vyvolali. Potom sa to neudialo, tak sa prepli zo sell rovno do buy. Ten sell side research je nenormalna pseudoveda. A GS je konzistentne kontrarian indikator. Ale mozno to robia naschvál.


Tak dnes vyvolali tlak hajzlíci Bairdíci. A dali si načas . Skoro ráno, ked Amerika ešte spí...Samo, že to robia naschvál.Videl som už tolko kontraverzných up/down, že sa ani nedivím, ked jeden dá strong sell a druhý strong buy. Najviac ma rozčulujú upgrady po vyslovene zlých zverejneniach, alebo downgrady po vyslovene dobrých. A Goldmani to sú exoti. Napr. do AMD podľa mňa budú búšiť, lebo im vyhovuje monopol Intelu.

Stericycle downgraded to Underperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt lowered to $73 (85.73 ) : Robert W. Baird downgrades SRCL to Underperform from Neutral and lowers their tgt to $73 from $74 as the stock is nearly 20% off its lows, driven entirely by multiple expansion as earnings continue to flat-line. They believe secular revaluation is not yet complete, based on their sum of the parts view, and also see continued risk to ests, which they view as low quality overall. Net, firm envisions a slow bleed lower as valuation and investor sentiment re-calibrate to reflect the new realities at SRCL.

Nákup som mal 87,75 a predával som 86,50 a 85,50. Padla až na 84 a nakoniec sa vrátila späť...

P.S. CF dnes krásnych +5% po upgrade. Je späť v hre. Škoda, že včera padali komodity, podržal by som ju dlhšie. Na takých akciách sa zarába najlepšie ... padnutý anjel, nezvykne zverejňovať dobre a zrazu zverejní pekne. Investori berú, shortselleri utekajú...otoči sa do uptrendu a ten vydrží...Unfortunately, takých je teraz strašne málo...Drvivá väčšina dobrých je strašne vysoko a prekúpená...neznášam tento stav.


UBS upgrades CF to Buy from Neutral and sets target price at $33 as they view CF as a top pick to play the eventual ag recovery as there is limited nitrogen capacity coming post 2017. They view 2017 as a transition year from cash flow negative in 2016 to UBSe FCF yield of ~9% in 2018. UBS expects U.S. natural gas prices to remain relatively low, while oil prices rise over time. This should widen the cost advantage to CF. Firm believes nitrogen product pricing will bottom in 2017 and improving cash flow supports a secure dividend. They think CF should be valued at a peak multiple of~9.5x on their 2018e EBITDA estimate based on longer term natural gas advantage and their view that nitrogen fertilizer prices are bottoming.
In the stock market, timing is everything...
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Templeton
"be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," Buffett
JUGGLER
 
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Re: Hedžový fond Infinity Enhanced Equity Class A

Poslaťod JUGGLER » Ned 05 28, 2017 12:02 am

CMG update. Firma updatovala výsledky vyšetrovania.

To, čo vyzeralo ako nič môže mať negatívny vplyv. Nemusí, ale môže.

Chipotle Hacked In Massive Breach - Customer Payment Data Stolen From Thousands Of Restaurants
.

Chipotle announced late Friday that Hackers used malware to infiltrate Chipotle Mexigan Grill Inc's ($CMG) payment system over a three week period beginning in late March - stealing sensitive customer banking information, including account numbers and internal verification codes that could be used to drain debit-card linked bank accounts.

The announcement was made following an investigation into an incident first reported on April 25th of "unauthorized activity" detected in some of their Canadian restaurants.

No word on how many customers are affected, however Chipotle said most of their 2,250 or so restaurants were hit between March 24th and April 18th.

The breach could mean big trouble for shares of Chipotle, which have only partially recovered from an E.coli outbreak in late 2015. According to Reuters, security analysts say Chipotle will likely face a fine based on the size of the breach and number of records compromised.


"If your data was stolen through a data breach that means you were somewhere out of compliance" with payment industry data security standards, Julie Conroy, research director at Aite Group, a research and advisory firm.

"In this case, the card companies will fine Chipotle and also hold them liable for any fraud that results directly from their breach," said Avivah Litan, a vice president at Gartner Inc (IT.N) specializing in security and privacy.


A supi sa už zbiehajú:

CHIPOTLE INVESTIGATION INITIATED by Former Louisiana Attorney General: Kahn Swick & Foti

On May 4, 2017, a class action lawsuit was filed against Chipotle by a proposed class of more than 100 financial institutions alleging that its negligence in maintaining adequate data security measures to prevent the breach resulted in closed accounts, stopped payments and other costly damages exceeding $5 million, including expenses for canceling and reissuing cards compromised in the data breach and for refunding fraudulent charges. The suit also alleges that Chipotle had decided in 2015 “that it would not upgrade its terminals to EMV [chip card] technology, claiming that it would slow down customer lines” and that a prior breach had cost the company approximately $4.3 million between 2004 and 2006.

Som zvedavý, či to bude mať vplyv. Cena stále 480. Od zverejnenia ide len do boku..

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In the stock market, timing is everything...
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Templeton
"be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," Buffett
JUGGLER
 
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Re: Hedžový fond Infinity Enhanced Equity Class A

Poslaťod JUGGLER » Pon 07 17, 2017 7:00 pm

Nevie niekto výsledok fondu k 30.júnu (polrok )?

P.S.
CMG klesla a začína byť zaujímavá z hladiska TA.
Fundamenty neutrálne, perspektíva mierne schladená, ale potencia na rast vyzerá OK..
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CMG strednodoby.png
In the stock market, timing is everything...
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Templeton
"be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," Buffett
JUGGLER
 
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Re: Hedžový fond Infinity Enhanced Equity Class A

Poslaťod JUGGLER » Uto 07 18, 2017 5:14 pm

ďalší úder pre CMG:

Shares dive -7% on heavy volume back to its December low of $362 on reports of restaurant in Virginia shutting down after customers' complaints of illness making rounds. Next level of interest below that is the November low at 352/353.
In the stock market, timing is everything...
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Templeton
"be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," Buffett
JUGGLER
 
Príspevky: 6639
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Re: Hedžový fond Infinity Enhanced Equity Class A

Poslaťod JUGGLER » Ned 07 23, 2017 5:19 pm

Pripravujem sa na zverejnovanie CMG, CF a SRCL a toto mi vyrazilo dych..Potkany v reštaurácii CMG pri plnej prevádzke...a nie jeden - hned tri..Samozrejme, hned to prebrali média...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVyjZM_ ... nnel=YUxxY

CMG pekne vyklesaná. Také akcie mám rád. Dobré zverejnenie a letia hore..

P.S. Stále nemám výsledky fondu...akurát, že k 23,6 bol stav NAV 125,1 čo je 5,18% za 2017. Ked niekto máte, ozvite sa.
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CMG aktual.png
In the stock market, timing is everything...
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Templeton
"be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," Buffett
JUGGLER
 
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CMG, CF a SRCL

Poslaťod JUGGLER » Ned 07 23, 2017 5:23 pm

Nechcem zahlcovať Petrove vlákno ohladom fondu, tak som presunul diskusiu o tých troch akciách tu.

P.S. CMG je zaujímavá na bottomfishing a momentum play po earnings, ale najviac z tých troch sa mi páči CF, ktorá bude zverejnovat 2 augusta. Tá urobila pekný pohyb, od minulého zverejnenia vyše +20%.
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In the stock market, timing is everything...
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Templeton
"be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," Buffett
JUGGLER
 
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Registrovaný: Štv 04 17, 2008 8:39 pm


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