50-tiletý a delší graf zlata je nesmysl.Ladis napísal: Nevíte , kde najít graf ceny zlata za asi 50 let , překrytý grafem indexu S&P500
Jen 5-10 let je na http://www.bigcharts.com ani http://www.comdirect.de ani http://www.onvista.de
Jak známo , velký expert Kenneth Fisher od http://www.fi.com Fisher Investment pravil : zlato je mizerná investice a nechrání portfolio proti poklesu hodnoty , žádný hedging !
Ale byl by hezký obrázek grafu zlata a S & P 500 za 30 - 50 - 90 let.
Jak těžaři nyní těží méně kvalitní rudu:2006 gold production actually fell in many of the world’sbiggest gold-mining countries. South Africa’s output fell to277 tonnes last year, down 8%. Unbelievably this proved tobe an 84-year low, this country’s lowest gold output since amassive mining strike in 1922! Gold hits a 26-year high yetits largest producer mines less gold than in any single yearsince the early 1920s? Crazy! Yet this trend is not South-African specific. US production fell 1% to 260 tonnes. TheAussies saw production fall 5% to 251 tonnes. Peru’s totalgold output fell 2% to 203 tonnes and Russia’s was off 3%to 152 tonnes. Canada was hit the hardest, a big 11% slideto 104 tonnes. When demand is rising yet mined supply allover the world is falling, prices can only continue to rise.
Old mines depleting and the seemingly-endless time thatit takes to bring new mines into production isn’t the only rea-son why mined supply is contracting. Miners are also work-ing to maximize their mines’ lives by “low grading”. In bear years when gold prices are low, mine managers are forcedto mine the best ore they have just to survive. The mills thatcrush the mined rock have fixed capacities, so high-grading when prices are low ensures the most daily gold production.
But as gold prices rise, they don’t need to mine the best oreanymore. They can mix in lower-grade ore. The more low-grade ore they can mill, the more gold the mine will produceultimately and the longer its useful life will last. As the low-grade ore passes through the fixed-capacity mills, less gold is produced on a daily basis. Thus in order to maximize theoverall mine life, gold companies tend to produce less whenprices are high so they can afford to crush lower-grade ore. This low-grading is unlikely to radically change. The higher the gold price goes, the more peripheral lower-grade areas of ore become economical to mine. This is very bullish.
Thanks to the tactical dollar weakness since January, it’snearing 80. As this 36-year chart reveals, the US Dollar In-dex has never decisively broken below 80. In fact, it hasn’t even visited 80 all that often, only five brief times over manydecades prior to today. If the dollar’s current secular bear isgoing to continue and it drives the USDX under 80, then weare off the map into uncharted territory. Here there be mon-sters? Probably. The US economy is desperately depend-ent on foreign investors to finance our profligate debt. If theUSDX knifes through 80 and they start to see the dollar hitnew all-time lows, will they pull in their horns? Some will forsure. And as the first grow tired of ballooning forex lossesontheir investments in the US, their initial selling will spawnmore dollar weakness which will beget more selling. Under80, we have the real possibility of a vicious circle forming.
Gold – A Barbarous Relic?
By Doug Casey
How many times have you heard gold described as the "barbarous relic"? It is a favorite phrase of gold-bashers everywhere who are trying to make gold the object of derision. I cringe every time I hear it, which is all too frequently, because gold is neither barbarous nor a relic.
There is indeed a barbarous relic: central banking. Central banks are barbarous in part because they conspired to put an end to Newton's brilliant invention – the gold standard – that safeguarded sound money for 200 years. However, it is the process of central banking itself, as it has come to be practiced, that deserves the greatest public wrath.
Central banking is barbarous for the following reasons:
Corruption of Money as a Product of the Free Market
Money is a fundamental building block of our society because it allows people to interact with one another in the market process. Money existed long before governments and central banks began to "manage" it. Tragically, instead of being a neutral and unfettered tool in commerce, fair to one and all, money has now become a matter of force and decree, which is disruptive to the market process and therefore harmful to society.
Creation of Money Substitutes
Prior to the creation of the Bank of England, every exchange in the trading activity that we call "the market process" tendered value for value. In other words, gold was exchanged for land, silver for food, etc. – assets were traded for assets. The Bank of England changed this process by creating money substitutes. Banknotes are not a tangible asset, like gold or silver. Banknotes are merely money substitutes and not money itself. Money substitutes are a liability of the bank issuing that paper currency, and money substitutes create all sorts of payment risk that one does not have when using tangible assets as currency.
Because central banks act in secrecy, they are not held accountable. For example, the so-called Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve is far from open. It meets and makes decisions behind closed doors. The minutes released one month later are thoroughly redacted, leaving outsiders in the dark about the members' deliberations. Central bankers consider themselves – and act as if they were – above the law. Moreover, this secrecy favors insiders, and it is this fundamental principle upon which central banks' market intervention has been constructed, including, for example, their intervention in the gold market.
Taxation without Representation
Central banks have freed governments from having to ask their citizens – through their elected representatives – for more taxes. Central banks can acquire government debt and use it to create currency out of thin air for governments to spend on their latest whims. Even worse, through their policies that create inflation, central banks enable governments to steal from their citizens.
There are several tools in the central banks' arsenal, and one of them is disinformation, which they regularly practice. For example, central banks have come to make people believe that inflation is "rising prices." But wet streets do not cause rain. By changing the definition of inflation to one of "rising prices" rather than what it really is – monetary debasement engineered by central banks – the true culprits (the central banks themselves) are masked.
Not only are central banks guilty of disinformation, but deception is one of their most frequently used tools. The history of banking is replete with examples that demonstrate not just a lack of disclosure but, rather, outright deception. To give just one example, consider how central banks today account for their gold loans. They carry both gold in the vault and gold out on loan as one-line item on their balance sheets. In effect, central banks are saying that they can ignore the truthful disclosure established by Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. As a result, they can report both cash and accounts receivable as one and the same thing. Accounting like that would make even the fraudsters at Enron blush.
Creation of Command and Control Economies
Central banks have, in effect, turned the market into a command (i.e., state-run) economy. The power to create money out of thin air brings with it the much greater power to control a nation's economy, and therefore the economic destiny of millions. Central bankers today act like the former Soviet Union politburo members, who pulled strings and pushed buttons to try to make the economy – which means each and every one of us who participate in the economy – bend to their control. But it is not only the economic destiny of millions that is determined by central banks. The exercise of power by central banks raises subtle, but potentially more disturbing, issues.
Propagation of Control and Restrictions
Central bankers and their comrades in government know that the command-economy power that they have claimed forces them to walk a fine line between prosperity and economic collapse, given the inherent fragility of the credit-based monetary system they operate. To try to reduce this ever-growing fragility – in a vain attempt to make it easier for central banks to control the command economy effectively and totally – governments take away peoples' freedom. Central banks usher in controls, such as the reporting of bank accounts and funds transfers, and policies, such as the "too big to fail" doctrine that underwrites bad decisions at banks with taxpayers' money. Controls perpetuate a central bank's stranglehold on power regardless of whether they are doing a good or a bad job – and it is usually bad – in commanding the economy.
Debt over Savings
The command economy that central banks operate encourages the growth of debt, rather than savings. Banks want to expand their balance sheets – i.e., to make more loans – in order to earn greater profits. Governments want central banks to accommodate this objective. The resulting credit expansion provides the public with opportunities to acquire new things, which creates an illusion of prosperity that makes people believe their wealth is rising.
The result of this debt-induced pseudo-prosperity is a complacent populace, which tends to perpetuate governmental power and politicians' perquisites. Instead of following a sound and time-tested "pay as you go" policy, consumers, businesses, and governments have adopted a new creed – "buy now and pay later." The mountain of debt that exists in the United States today and the excessive consumption that continues to enlarge that mountain are the direct results of central banks' activity and their need to grow more debt to avoid the inevitable bust that would follow if the debt growth were to stop. Newsletter writer Richard Russell explains it very simply in just three words: "Inflate or die." That reality explains why current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said, in effect, that he would drop $100 bills from helicopters if necessary to inflate the economy.
Not far in the future, when the U.S. dollar collapses as just one in a long list of fiat currencies that have collapsed before it, people will look back and ask themselves how it was possible that barbarous institutions like central banks could have hoodwinked so many people into thinking they were good institutions acting in the public interest. The answer is that central banks have created the illusion of prosperity. Because people think that they are well off, they have no reason to question basic tenets that they are led to believe. For this reason, people are easily cozened into believing that gold is the barbarous relic, that central banks are doing a good job, that officially measured inflation is low, and that their financial future is secure. However, nothing could be farther from the truth.
A vypadá to nadějně se zlatem ! Mezi 2026 a 2045 už nebude žádné zlato v dolech , přestane býti těženo a z dnešních 700 dolaru pro unci se čeká pak 2040 cena kolem 10.000 dolaru za unci.
Zlato je taky dnes pod teoretickou cenou , teoretická cena je témeř 2x vyšší než dnešní cena aktuální.
neviem po nemecky a neviem ani z coho ten clanok vychadza, ale ked som si pred rokom robil research o zlate to na peak gold nevyzeralo ani nahodou..Honzajs napísal:http://www.goldseiten.de/content/divers ... oryid=2543
ukazují PEAK GOLD. Vůbec bych se nezlobil...
povec mi jeden fundamentalny dovod (okrem dolaru) preco by zlato malo ist hore...Honzajs napísal:Konečně se zlato a stříbro pěkně hýbe. Pozice jsou vybudovány (půlka portfolia), teď nezbývá než čekat.
Snad to nezakřiknu.
ak je dovod dolar, neni lepsi dolar short jak zlato long?Ferin007 napísal:1. Dolar je docela podstatnej fundamentální důvod, kerej sám o sobě docela stačí.
to je zase dolar..2. Podle všech indicií Čína navyšuje svoje zásoby ve zlatě, relativně v současné době velice nízký.
to je zase cista spekulacia.. a aj keby to spomalili, jak dlho to bude trvat? aj tak to budu predavat.3. Při současným vývoji určitě většina CB minimálně zpomalí svoje odprodeje zlatých rezerv (který už byly započítaný v kursu).
v poslednej dobe chodi zlato spolocne z akciami, takze o hedge voci trhom nemoze byt moc rec.4. A konečně samotnej, poněkud turbulentní vývoj trhů v poslední době. Investorů s averzí k riziku je pořád hafo.
Hlavní důvod je dolar a obecně prudký růst peněžní zásoby ve všech významných ekonomikách.jonatanus napísal:
povec mi jeden fundamentalny dovod (okrem dolaru) preco by zlato malo ist hore...