komoditna bublina ?

Komodity a komoditné akcie - ropa, energie, drahé kovy, zlato, striebro, priemyselné kovy, ťažobné spoločnosti

komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod BGuru » Uto 04 01, 2008 2:41 pm

Velmi vystizny clanok !

CHINA, AS EVERYONE KNOWS, IS A BIG FORCE IN THE extraordinary boom in commodities. Its voracious appetite for everything from corn and wheat to copper and oil has helped push up U.S. commodities prices by some 50% over the past 12 months.

But China is by no means the whole story. Speculators -- including small investors -- are also playing a huge role. Thanks to the proliferation of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds tied to commodities indexes, speculative buying has gone way beyond anything the domestic commodities markets have ever seen. By one estimate, index funds right now account for 40% of all bullish bets on commodities. The speculative juices are even more plentiful -- nearly 60% of bullish positions -- if you count the bets placed by traditional commodity "pools."

dalej na
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120 ... 73053.html
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod filip glasa » Ned 04 06, 2008 10:00 am

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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod Honzajs » Ned 04 06, 2008 11:09 am

Zeall na téma komoditní bubliny (připravím z toho výcuc v češtině pro svůj web)

Illuminating Commodities Sentiment

The inflection point generated by the Fed’s rate cut looksnonsensical at first. Did driving real rates a bit less negativethan expected short-circuit the global industrialization that isdriving the secular commodities bulls? Of course not! But itwas sentiment, not fundamentals, that hit commodities.
Wall Street hates commodities. Commodities only thriveduring secular stock bears when stocks are weak. The raw-materials sector is gradually gaining acceptance, but it won’tbe fully welcome until commodities are peaking in a decadeor so. This underlying antipathy manifests itself all over.
For example, oil stocks have dazzling fundamentals dueto their production of a scarce commodity that can’t be easi-ly replicated. Tech stocks have horrible fundamentals as itonly takes months before their shiny new product-du-jour is replicated as a knockoff by some illicit Asian factory. Yet atthe early October stock-market top, the XOI just traded near 13.7x earnings while the NASDAQ 100 was near 33.3x! It’s plain silly to believe that gadgets (nonessential luxuries) area better business than oil (necessity for most of the world).
This valuation premium exists because Wall Street is stillin love with the last secular bull (techs and financials). But it has yet to embrace the new bull. Most of the time on CNBCcommodities are derided as “a bubble”, not a bull. In fact, inthe days following the March rate cut I saw dozens of main-stream analysts interviewed on CNBC joyfully proclaiming a commodities bubble had burst and a new bear was here!
Even for the subset of Wall Street that is starting to warmup to commodities, the producers are usually eschewed forthe servicers. Producers have the scarce resources wherethe true value lies. Unhedged production grants them effec-tively unlimitedprofits leverage to rising prices. Meanwhile the servicers compete in cutthroat low-barrier-to-entry types of businesses. Any roughneck can service an oil rig, but thecapital required to actually find and produce oil is massive.
Wall Street truly does not understand the secular natureof these global commodities bulls. So it shouldn’t be all thatsurprising that at the first hint of a commodities pullback theStreet assumes the commodities bull it never respected has to beover. After the rate cut CNBC spent hours across the next several days crowing about the unwinding and reversalof the long commodities trade. It was funny to observe.
Instead of seeing commodities as an opportunity,a new bull to ride, Wall Street sees them as a threat to its market-darling sectors. If capital is flowing into commodities stocks,they reason, then that means less is going into their sectorsof choice. So the Street rejoiced when commodities startedto pull back on the Fed’s decision. Less competition!
This psychology was all wrong for a top too. Wall Streethas been aggressively shouting “bubble” and “topping” for acouple years now on commodities. This means the wall ofworries is intact anda major top isn’t likely. At true tops like the NASDAQ in March 2000, everyone expects the bull sec-tor to continue rising forever. Everyone has faith at the end,seeing any pullback as a stellar “buy the dips” opportunity.
So on the 18th when commodities initially broke on theFed’s lightly-less-ominous-than-expected rate cut, plenty of traders who have been wrong for a long time suddenlysaw sweet vindication. Wall Street started hammering psycholo-gy in an attempt to scare hedge funds out of longs. And thecontrarians who don’t yet believe in this upleg’s potential didnot hesitate to start selling when their long-stale correctioncalls finally started looking right. Sellers were quick to seizethis opportunity and the downside pressure snowballed.

“The Sky Is Falling! The Sky Is Falling!”


While many commodities were due for a pullback despitethe Fed, this pent-up negative psychology drove a frenzy ofselling that temporally compressed the retreat. The severaldays following the Fed’s rate cut were pretty ugly. This fastand furious selling understandably spooked a lot of bulls.
From the 17th to the 20th, gold plunged 9.3%. Silver, as usual, amplified its move with its own 16.9% plummet. TheHUI, another gold sentiment play, fell 15.0% by the 24th. Itwas incredible to see how scared traders got in three days.By the morning of March 20th, the intraday lows in many ofthe high-quality gold and silver stocks were astounding. Wewere stopped out of most of our open trading positions.
This commodities selling was pretty broad-based too, notjust a PM thing. The CRB fell 9.2% in 5 days while the CCIlost 10.2%. In the geometrically-smoothed CCI’s case, thisdecline was of a magnitude and intensity seldom seen. Oilwas hit hard too, falling 7.4% in 5 days. While it may havefelt like the PM sector was hit particularly hard, the plunge ingold was right in line with the broad commodities indexes.
Now a key Wall Street shibboleth tainting commodities isthe belief they are simply an anti-dollar play. Yes, a weaker dollar means commodities cost more. But it isn’t the prima-ry driver of the commodities bulls by a long shot. I think thisnotion is easily refuted, as commodities are up hundreds of percent in most cases while the USDX is “only” off 40.9% inits bear. If this US dollar bear was running the show, most commodities would only be up 40% or so since mid-2001.
Not surprisingly the USDX rallied after the Fed’s rate cut.It wasn’t quite as bad as expected, although real rates werestill massively negative. And the dollar was due to rally any-way for technical reasons as discussed earlier. Interestinglythis dollar bounce became the rallying cry for festering anti-commodities sentiment. Countless times on CNBC I heardthat “the surging dollar” was the commodities’ death knell.
But the dollar’s bounce over the worst several days afterthe rate cut was flaccid at best. Over 4 days the USDX onlymanaged to muster a 2.0% gain! Such a trivial rally off of apretty oversold low is meaningless, a rounding error. This isimportant because the dollar rebound is clearly insufficientto explain all of the broad and fast commodities selling. It’sironic that the USDX sunk to a new all-time low onthe 26th, just a week after the Fed’s widely-lauded rate cut!
Odds are commodities sold off simply because many ofthem were technically overbought on a short-term basis. Apullback was necessary to rebalance sentiment. There’s nodoubt the Fed’s latest machinations were the proximate cat-alyst. And the prevailing anti-commodities sentiment helpedto accelerate and intensify the pullback. But once all of thetheatrics are sliced away, Occam’s razor leaves a pullback.
Obviously sharp pullbacks can generate a lot of FUD, orfear, uncertainty, and doubt. It’s our natural human tenden-cy when the markets turn against us. But perspective andhard logic can easily dispel the destructive FUD emotions.

Perspective Is Everything

At worst on a closing basis during that hideous post-Fed selling week, the CCI edged just under 510. Sure, this wasdown 11.5% from its all-time high of early March. The glass hasto be half empty after such a sharp decline. Yet just onFebruary 7th the CCI closed at this level for the first time in history! So not only would 510 have been considered fan-tastically high just a few months ago, but six-week lows are hardly worth fretting over. Perhaps the glass is half full.
Gold closed at $911 at worst that week. Yes, falling $94in 3 trading days is not pleasant. But $911 is still one heckof a nice gold price. Gold only just closed over this level forthe first time everon January 24th. And it wasn’t even yet a five-week low for gold. If someone had told you last autumnwhen gold was struggling at $800 that traders would panicafter gold fell to $911, you would have laughed hysterically.
While such a sharp pullback surprised me, I was lookingfor a consolidation. A week before the Fed’s rate cut lots ofcontrarians were getting nervous about gold’s staying powerin the $900s. A grind sideways in the $900s would work toerode these concerns and keep greed in checkamong gold futures speculators. Gold was due for a seasonal retreatin early March anyway, ahead of a big seasonal rally into May.
But what a seasonal consolidation could have done overseveral weeks the sharp pullback accomplished over sever-al days. If gold holds in the $900s, traders will be a lot lessconcerned about these levels going forward. And any bud-ding greed in the futures markets was aggressively pruned.The impact of this pullback in eradicating greed is apparent in the GLD gold ETF too. Stock traders were terrified.
The day before the rate cut, GLD’s bullion peaked at thestaggering 663.8t mentioned earlier. GLD alone held moregold than all but 7 of the world’s biggest central banks! On the 18th as the Fed cut, these holdings held stable. Most ofthe gold selling that day happened in the last 90 minutes orso of trading. But over the next several days, stock tradersforced GLD to liquidate 29.8t of gold, 4.5% of its holdings!
GLD is designed to track gold, and acts as a conduit forstock-market capital to move in and out of physical gold. So as long as GLD selling pressure is proportional to gold sell-ing pressure, GLD will track gold so no sales of bullion arenecessary. Because GLD had to sell so much gold after theFed’s decision, it means the stock traders were selling GLDmuch faster than the futures traders were selling gold.
So a good fraction of the severity of gold’s plunge duringthose three days was probably stock-trader driven. Lots of new investors piled into GLD in the prior month as the highgold prices started building excitement. But the sharp movein gold scared them into selling which amplified the plunge.As a conduit shunting stock capital, GLD is a double-edged sword increasing both upside and downside gold volatility.
But has anything fundamental changed? Are real ratesnow positive, bearish for gold and bullish for the USDX? Is “inflation” gone, both in terms of supply-and-demand-driven commodities price increases and true monetary growth? Ismore gold being produced than investors worldwide want tobuy? Of course not! None of the fundamentals driving this gold bull changed one bit during March’s technical pullback.
Nor was any real technical damage done, gold remainedup near fantastic prices even in the midst of the carnage. Itreally looked like just a fleeting sentiment-driven pullback.

The Golden Road Ahead


Periodic pullbacks are not uncommon even in the strong-est uplegs. They are painful, but they should be since theirwhole reason for existence is to moderate greed. Every PMtrader felt much less greedy and much more scared at $911than they did 3 days earlier at $1005. Sharp pullbacks blowthrough stops too, which can be irritating. But such is spec-ulation. We have to weather whatever the markets dish out.
Looking ahead, my research still points to a high probab-ility for today’s Stage Two upleg to climax by late May. I’vere-checked all key threads of research and March’s pullbackdid not compromise any of them. So all of the analysis fromlast month’s “Spring Rally” ZI still holds. There’s no room torehash it here, but re-read the 3/08 ZI if you’d like a refresh-er on the near-term bullish case for gold and the HUI.
The technical topping targets I discussed last month arestill valid too. There were a bunch of them derived from in-dependent technical approaches, but they ranged up to810 on the HUI and $1160 for gold. These may seem excessivetoday, but remember these bulls’ very best gains tend to ac-crue rapidly in the final two months of S2 uplegs. I also stillexpect a major rally in the SPX to rebalance sentiment. Thecommodities stocks in general will greatly benefit from this.
But what if I’m wrong? What if the gold correction thesesare right? Believe it or not, I’m not worried if they are. Thegold stocks are woefully undervalued today relative to gold’sstellar advance. I do not think they are even pricing in $700gold in the future yet, let alone $800, $900, or $1000.
Even in its most brutal corrections of this entire bull, goldhas always bounced at or just below its 200-day moving av-erage. And with gold’s global secular supply-and-demand fundamentals as strong as ever, odds are this ironclad 200-dma support won’t change. Today gold’s 200dma is way upat $788 and it continues to rise. This is likely the worst caseeven if the legions of correctionists happen to be right.
Even at $800 gold, the overdue HUI/Gold Ratio peak willprobably yield a HUI level of 560. This is a long way under 700 or 800 of course, but it is still higher from here. The PMstocks are so ridiculously unloved today that even in a goldcorrection to its 200dma the HUI should be bid higher!
Once again I certainly don’t expect such a correction, I’mlooking for the climax of a mighty S2 upleg by late May. Buteither way PM stocks remain radically undervalued for thisnew higher-gold-price environment. And with gold averag-ing $926 in Q1 compared to $788 in Q4, upcoming Q1 earn-ings reports should be fantastic and spark buying interest.
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod BGuru » Pon 04 07, 2008 10:50 am

filip glasa píše:http://www.finmag.cz/clanek/3735/

Autor objavil ameriku ...

"Může se to celé zhroutit jako někdejší byznys s tulipány? Moje odpověd zní: Nikoliv.
Autor je student ekonomie."

Velmi smiesny clanok, hlavne z pohladu porovnavania tulipanov s realnymi komoditami. Take som uz dlho necital :mrgreen: Dik za spestrenie pondelkoveho rana.
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod rambajs » Uto 04 08, 2008 12:32 am

Stoupat muze vzdy je to,po cem je poptavka,takze jen to,co si lide mohou dovolit bezne kupovat.
Je to vse naprosto jednoduche,ale setrvacnost trendu byva velmi dlouha-zejmena na Forexu.
Vsak oni to velci nejak zaridi nebojte-bud natosknou,a zacnou sortovat,a trendy zastavi,nebo je vyvolaji nekde jinde.

At se dari
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod filip glasa » Uto 04 08, 2008 11:33 am

http://hn.ihned.cz/c4-10065240-23860820 ... e-porostou

Milan Tomášek: Komoditní bublina? Ne, ceny ještě porostou
Tomášek, manažer fondu ČPI Zlatý
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod Bobikpp » Uto 04 08, 2008 1:02 pm

filip glasa píše: manažer fondu ČPI Zlatý


Nebol by to dobry manager fondu zameraneho na komodity, keby tvrdil ze ceny komodit klesnu
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod filip glasa » Štv 04 17, 2008 3:12 pm

http://ekonom.ihned.cz/c1-24082250-kdo- ... ny-diktuje

První nákupčí, kteří letos v únoru přispěchali do Brazílie, aby s důlním koncernem Valo sjednali ceny za dodávky železné rudy, měli důvod k radosti. Koncern dodá, ale za ceny, které budou o 65 procent nad těmi z loňska. Proč ta radost? Původně se totiž počítalo s tím, že dodavatelé železné rudy zvednou ceny až o osmdesát či dokonce o devadesát procent.
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod filip glasa » Štv 05 08, 2008 3:10 pm

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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod Honzajs » Sob 05 24, 2008 2:36 pm

Mauldin o ropě, rozhodně stojí za přečtění

Where Will Oil Prices Go?

So, let's look at the fundamentals for oil. While a large part of this week's rise in oil was short covering (you can tell that from open positions), the supply of oil was down 7% from last year, even with demand beginning to fall. But there is an interesting footnote to that statistic, which we will visit later. Look at the chart below from http://www.economy.com:

Obrázok

Notice that supplies turned down sharply this last month, while the momentum of falling supply had been dropping since January. That is to say, the change in crude oil stocks was a negative 10% in January and was a little over -4% a month ago, falling to -7% today. But this is in the face of demand slowing. Today we learned that gasoline usage was down 4.2%, as prices are finally changing American driving behavior.

Jakab Spencer noted in his always interesting Dow Jones column that there is a disconnect between the New York Stock Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange, just one mile apart. The NYSE is pricing in $75 oil in oil stocks, while the futures market is surging over $135, and there are calls for near-term $150-a-barrel oil. The stock market is telling us that oil, at least in futures terms, is in a bubble.

And frankly, if you listened to their testimony, and more importantly pay attention to their actions, oil company executives simply do not believe that the price of oil is going to be $135 a barrel for the next few years. If they did, they would be punching more holes in the ground in places where it might be expensive to get the oil to market - but at $135 a barrel it would be profitable.

And then there is an odd circumstance in the oil picture that I think may suggest that we could see a break, and perhaps a violent one, in the near term for the price of oil.

Where Are All the Tankers?

For a few weeks now, observers have noticed that Iran is leasing tankers and storing oil in them. At about $140,000 a week or so, that is expensive storage. At first, conspiracy theorists were wondering if they were preparing for some kind of war or attack. But more conventionally, it may be they are having problems selling their oil. Their oil is not very high-quality, and there are only a few places that can take it and refine it. India, China, and the US are among the countries with refineries that can take Iranian oil. (And yes, George Friedman of Stratfor tells me some of it does end up in the US from time to time.)

India's refiners are telling Iran they no longer want their oil, preferring the higher-quality oil that is readily available in the area. So Iran has to decide whether to send it to China or "repackage" it so that it can end up in the US, while they try to get refiners in India to change their minds. Thus, they are leasing tankers to store the oil they are pumping.

I called George about six this evening and asked him about the Iranian situation, as that is a lot of oil that could come on the market at some point, as well as a possible reason that oil supplies are down. George has analysts on top of this situation.

He told me, "John, it's more interesting than that. It is not just Iran. Today we started checking on how many tankers Iran had, and soon discovered that there is a serious tanker shortage. Lease prices have soared in the past few weeks. It is clear there are a lot of speculators betting that oil is going to rise to $150 or so and are willing to pay very high prices for keeping the oil on the seas waiting for higher prices. It is a speculative boom."

He then told me about flying into New York in the early '80s. Outside the harbor were 30 or so tankers just sitting, waiting for prices to continue to increase as they had been doing for some time. When they did not, they all tried to get into the harbor at the same time, and of course they couldn't. It was the top of the market. Prices dropped, and the owners of the oil had to go to the futures market to hedge what they could. I had heard that story, but George saw it with his own eyes.

Almost everyone (except the stock market) is convinced oil is going higher in the near term. As I noted above, this week's rally was partially due to short covering by large institutions and companies which had sold production far into the future at much lower prices. They finally threw in the towel and took off their hedges.

Is it 1980 All Over Again?

We may be getting ready to stage a very interesting economic experiment. Is Masters right that prices are driven by speculation, or is it supply and demand? Follow me on this one. I am not saying that this will happen, but it is an interesting scenario.

Many developing countries subsidize the price of oil to their citizens, so they do not feel the pain of higher oil prices. But the headline of today's Financial Times is that Asia is finally getting ready to cut their subsidies as oil rises to $135. The awareness that they need to allow market conditions to prevail is finally being acknowledged, as they cannot afford the subsidies. This is going to help drive down demand for oil over time.

As demand starts to fall, let's remember that the storage facilities for oil waiting to be refined are a finite item. If all those tankers end up needing to find a home at the same time, even as demand for oil is going down, you could see the price of oil go down rather quickly in the short term.

If you are leasing tankers to deliver oil that is already hedged in price, you want to get it to port as soon as possible so that your lease payments stop as soon as possible. You only hold it on the high seas if you think the price is going up by more than your carrying costs (the cost of money and leasing the tanker). If you start to lose money, you sell your oil on the futures market and get it to port as fast as you can.

Now, here is where it could get interesting. Oil is the biggest component of the commodity index funds. If oil drops and looks likely to go lower, then the massive buying of these funds we have seen in the past few months could dry up. As Dennis Gartman says, it takes a lot of buying to make the price of something to go up, but it only takes a lack of buying to make it go down. And if there is net selling?

If we see money start to flow out of the index funds (and ETFs) because of momentum selling, that means the funds are not only selling their oil components, but also the grain and metal and meat. If the index funds are the key component in the rise of prices, we should see the price of all commodities go down in tandem and in sympathy. If oil is the only thing going down as index funds go down, then it is a supply-related issue.

But what if index funds continue to grow? If there is an abundance of oil, it will eventually show up in the spot price, as storage will be lacking, no matter what the longer-term futures prices do. The market will soon tell us whether index funds are a major factor. I tend to think that even while index fund buying is bullish, it is not the major factor that is the driver of commodity prices. And even if it is significant in the short term, in the long term fundamentals will drive the true price.

If it is simply index speculation, it will end in tears when the fundamentals catch up.

Let me say that I believe the long-term price of oil is going much higher. I was writing about $100 oil two years ago. $150 and $200 oil is in the cards at some point in the future. If you have not read the Outside the Box from last Monday, you should. My friend David Galland points out that Mexico, which supplies 14% of US oil, is likely to be a net importer of oil by the middle of the next decade, as their internal demand increases and production decreases. Iran will be a net importer within six years for the same reasons. Russia's oil exports are down this year, as are Mexico's. Energy costs are going to rise in the next decade, and maybe much sooner.

You can click on the following link to read the Outside the Box on where oil exports are headed in our future. And Casey Research does some top-notch analysis of energy investments (not just oil) in a very reasonably priced letter, if you are inclined to invest in individual stocks.

As for today, if I was in a long-only commodity index fund, unless my time horizon was very long I would be watching it closely and have some close stops. And I might wait until I saw what the price of oil was going to do. If you have some profits, then you might want to think about taking some off the table. Just a thought.
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod radvan » Sob 05 24, 2008 6:44 pm

ak mam verit tomu, co tam mauldin pise, tak arbitraz ako delo - short oil, long oil companies a je zaknihovany bezrizikovy zisk ... ale az take jednoduche to podla mna nie je ;)
http://www.Quantpedia.com - the leading quantitative trading research company
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod filip glasa » Ned 05 25, 2008 6:47 pm

http://www.patria.cz/Zpravodajstvi/1208 ... blina.html

Mnozí analytici uvádí, že drahou ropu ospravedlňuje poptávka a nabídka v případě cen asi na 90 nebo 100 USD za barel, ale 130 dolarů je prostě už příliš.
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod filip glasa » Uto 05 27, 2008 11:12 am

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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod filip glasa » Štv 07 03, 2008 9:36 am

čo si myslí Marc Faber a Jim Rogers v češtine:
http://www.finmag.cz/clanek/5912/
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod Andrej » Pon 08 11, 2008 10:11 pm

Drahé kovy nejako zlacneli:
- striebro: 14,66 USD/oz
- paladium: 319 USD/oz
- ...

Co sa to do pekla deje? A huci to dole stale...
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod jonatanus » Pon 08 11, 2008 11:26 pm

Andrej píše:Drahé kovy nejako zlacneli:
- striebro: 14,66 USD/oz
- paladium: 319 USD/oz
- ...

Co sa to do pekla deje? A huci to dole stale...

lacne kovy drahy dolar
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod Andrej » Uto 08 12, 2008 9:50 pm

jonatanus píše:lacne kovy drahy dolar


Ved hej, len ten nepomer je zarazajuci - dolar stupol o 5%, a kovy zahucali 20 az 30% dole.
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod jonatanus » Uto 08 12, 2008 10:09 pm

Andrej píše:Ved hej, len ten nepomer je zarazajuci - dolar stupol o 5%, a kovy zahucali 20 az 30% dole.

a predtym? :idea:
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod Andrej » Ned 08 17, 2008 8:42 pm

Nemyslim si ze to huci dole kvoli silnemu dolaru, lebo o silnom dolare nemoze byt ani reci. To ze najprv dolar oslabi o tretinu, a potom o 5 percent stupne z neho este nerobi silny dolar. A pritom:
- striebro za 12,70 USD/oz
- paladium za 281 USD/oz
to su rocne minima, u paladia aj viacrocne. Podla Jima Rogersa to este malo par rokov rast, vzhladom na ponuku/dopyt. Nuz, on si ten trh vazne robi co chce. Este zlato nech zahuci pod 600, a Rogersove Horuce komodity pojdu von oknom :wink:
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod jonatanus » Ned 08 17, 2008 9:04 pm

bohuzial ten trh nefunguje tak, ze sa niekde zvysi dopyt o 1% a cena sa upravi podla ekonomickej poucky, takisto neplati ze ked sa dolar trocha posilni ze to je "ten" dovod preco komodity padnu 30%, ide o to ze je to prebublinovane, je tam spusta spekulativnych penazi a ten trh je "mimo realitu" a podstatnu rolu tam hra sentiment. a sentiment dolaru (eura) sa momentalne (aspon kratkodobo) do urcitej miery zmenil, co odstartovalo vypredaje - ktore sa postupne kumuluju s kazdym dalsim poklesom..

alebo to poviem takto - strucna a jasna odpoved na temu komodity:
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod filip glasa » Ned 08 17, 2008 9:18 pm

Podla Jima Rogersa to este malo par rokov rast, vzhladom na ponuku/dopyt.


rogers okrem iného spomína, že v tom 15-20 ročnom rastúcom trende musia byť aj celkom vážne korekcie. To je samozrejme pochopiteľné a bežné v každom rastúcom trende.

Otázka je skôr to, či ten dopyt je stále vyšší ako ponuka o koľko a kedy sa vyrovná. Toto si treba prejsť na každej jednotlivej komodite a potom ich nejakým spôsobom povážiť a rozhodnúť sa či som stále na Rogersovej strane. Mimochodom Rogers zrovna zlatu moc nefandil.

Mirek Koplík s ktorým som robil rozhovor nerobí nič iné len celý deň analyzuje a pri tom robí dlhodobo (rok - dva) len na dvoch komoditách. Tak asi toľko to dá roboty keď to chceš zanalyzovať poriadne.
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod Bobikpp » Ned 08 17, 2008 9:28 pm

Andrej píše:Nemyslim si ze to huci dole kvoli silnemu dolaru, lebo o silnom dolare nemoze byt ani reci.


Trh reaguje vacsinou dost prehnane - zvlast v tomto obdobi. Podla mna sa tu stretli 2 veci:

1. Silnejuci dolar (si zober, ze ani nie za 2 tyzdne isiel z 1,57 na 1,47 - keby si obchodoval vo forexe a zviezol sa na tom, tak myslim, ze uz do konca zivota nemusis pracovat :) takze si myslim, ze mozme zacat hovorit o silnom dolare resp. o silnejsom :)

2. Docasny koniec komoditneho bullu (nazvyme to kludne korekcia)

Mam ale taky pocit, ze akonahle skonci vysledkova sezona (neskoncila uz nahodou - teraz fakt neviem :) , tak ze sa zase na program dna dostanu financials a ich problemy (ktore asi este niesu uplne u konca) a dolar si to zase otoci smer juh (i ked uz nie az tak ako pred tym, pretoze problemy sa objavili uz aj inde co svete) a komodity to zase naberu smer sever - ale to je len moja predstava nicim nepodlozena :mrgreen:
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Re: komoditna bublina ?

Poslaťod Andrej » Pon 08 18, 2008 9:44 pm

filip glasa píše:Otázka je skôr to, či ten dopyt je stále vyšší ako ponuka o koľko a kedy sa vyrovná. Toto si treba prejsť na každej jednotlivej komodite...

No ano, len ci su k tomu hodnoverne data. Lebo ked si predstavis ze si velka firma ktora potrebuje urobit mega nakup nejakej komodity, urcite o tom nebudes dopredu vykladat, ale si pekne pockas kym to bude najvyhodnejsie. Myslim ze sukromna firma nie je povinna zverejnovat kolko ktorej komodity a kedy planuje nakupit. Ak je to pravda ze nemusi, tak potom vsetky odhady o dopyte su asi ako ked Jara Cimrman odhadoval vek hrnca uhlikovou metodou - zistil ze hrniec pochadza z roku 1287 plus minus 20 000 rokov :wink:
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