ODHADY NA 2021

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JUGGLER
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ODHADY NA 2021

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JUGGLER napísal: Pi 11 12, 2020 12:48 am Análi sa už predbiehajú s tipmi, ako vysoko skončí SP500 v 2021 . Tipujú nad 4000, len jeden ,,iba,, 3900. Ani jedného som nevidel, čo by tipoval pokles. Chápem, že stimulmi sa zabránilo scénaru ako v 1929... Ale pochybujem, že peniaze a dlhy zabezpečia takú prosperitu, ktorá len tak preskočí krízu 2020.
Idem ich zbierať, odborníkov. A pozrieme sa im aj na zúbky, ako dokážu profitovať zo svojích predikcií.
Ak sa stretnete s predikciami análov, manažérov hedge fondov, či ekonómov, hoc aj nositeľov Nobelovej ceny, dajte sem ich tipy.

McMillan - Commonwealth Financial Network : S&P 500 2021 target 3900

...to je pesimista, čo predikuje iba +8,2%

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Analyst Sets S&P 500 Target Of 3,900 For 2021: 'Healing Is Underway'

After a wild ride for the markets this yea, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) is on track to finish 2020 up 13.5% on the year.
Given the ongoing pandemic, the stock market seems to be pricing in a lot of optimism about 2021, but Commonwealth Financial Network chief investment officer Brad McMillan said Friday that there’s plenty of room for additional upside for the S&P 500 in 2021.

In his 2021 outlook note, McMillan said there are plenty of things to both love and hate about the market going into 2021, but investors seem to be focusing on optimism given the strong rally since Election Day.

As economic conditions improve in 2021, McMillan said investors may start to face a new headwind in rising interest rates.

In addition, he said investors shouldn’t expect major upside in earnings in 2021 either.

As of early November, analysts were projecting $168.22 in S&P 500 earnings in 2021, only about 3% higher than 2019’s pre-pandemic earnings of $162.97.

2022 Earnings Are Key: The good news for investors is that analysts are expecting tremendous earnings growth in 2022, and stocks will likely price in that surge throughout 2021.

At this point, analysts are projecting $195.58 in 2022 S&P 500 earnings, or about 20.3% growth from 2019 levels.

By applying a 20x multiple on those earnings, the lower end of the S&P 500’s recent valuation range, McMillan said a year-end 2021 target of 3,900 for the S&P 500 makes sense. That target represents only about 8.2% upside from current levels.

Sranda: análi v novembri predikovali za 2020 +3%...teraz sme v polovici decembra a už +13,5% :like:
:idea: ,,Amatérski investori investujúci pasívne do indexového fondu budú mať v dlhodobom horizonte lepšie výnosy ako profesionálni manažéri fondov,, Buffett :mesec:
:arrow: Vzdelávanie a užitočné info zadarmo: https://smartinvestor.sk
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Re: ODHADY NA 2021

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GOLDMAN SACHS: 4300


Indeed, “stronger-than-expected [third-quarter] results lead us to raise our S&P EPS forecasts,” chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin wrote in a note. He raised his 2021 earnings-per-share forecast to $175 from $170 and, more important, his 2022 estimate to $195 per share from $188. Underpinning those assumptions are at least one vaccine becoming widely available in the U.S., less drastic changes in policy because Congress is most likely to be divided, and the continued V-shaped economic recovery.

The reason the 2022 estimate is important is because, by the end of 2021, the market will be pricing in 2022 earnings and using Kostin’s target earnings multiple by that time of 22 times gets close to a 4300 target for the S&P 500.
:idea: ,,Amatérski investori investujúci pasívne do indexového fondu budú mať v dlhodobom horizonte lepšie výnosy ako profesionálni manažéri fondov,, Buffett :mesec:
:arrow: Vzdelávanie a užitočné info zadarmo: https://smartinvestor.sk
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Re: ODHADY NA 2021

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MORGAN STANLEY: 3900

“We’ve now transitioned to an early-cycle environment, which implies strong profit growth that we believe is not yet priced into markets, despite the market's recent rally,"

Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley Research.

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/glo ... tlook-2021
:idea: ,,Amatérski investori investujúci pasívne do indexového fondu budú mať v dlhodobom horizonte lepšie výnosy ako profesionálni manažéri fondov,, Buffett :mesec:
:arrow: Vzdelávanie a užitočné info zadarmo: https://smartinvestor.sk
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Re: ODHADY NA 2021

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Deutsche Bank: 3,950 (EPS: $194): ‘A gradual correction of overvaluation’

By Chadha’s calculation, the S&P 500’s current price-earnings multiple reflects an expensive stock market: Including Deutsche Banks’s annualized fourth-quarter earnings forecast, the S&P 500’s price-earnings multiple is at 22x, or about 5 multiple points above what the firm considers fair value.

For 2021, a recovery in earnings — which essentially increases the denominator of the price-earnings ratio — should lower multiples. That said, an increase in companies’ payout ratios as dividends and buybacks return could at least partially offset this, he added.

“A gradual correction of overvaluation argues for the the current overvaluation of 5 multiple points to diminish but remain significant at 3.6 points, putting the end-2021 multiple at 20.5x,” Chadha said.

His S&P 500 price target of 3,950 implies about 8% appreciation from closing prices on December 1.


UBS: 4,100 (EPS: $176): ‘The key driver of U.S. equities will be the pace of vaccinations’


Jefferies: 4,200 ( EPS $180): ‘The much-maligned value and cyclical growth sectors are slowly making a comeback’
:idea: ,,Amatérski investori investujúci pasívne do indexového fondu budú mať v dlhodobom horizonte lepšie výnosy ako profesionálni manažéri fondov,, Buffett :mesec:
:arrow: Vzdelávanie a užitočné info zadarmo: https://smartinvestor.sk
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Re: ODHADY NA 2021

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Bank of America: 3,800 (EPS $165): ‘A lot of optimism is priced in already’

Ten sa mi páči, lebo predikuje korekciu, ktorú tipujem aj ja:

“The recovery is intact and the world likely re-opens in the 2H, but a lot of optimism is priced in already on vaccine/recovery,” Subramanian said in a note. “Vaccine execution risk, delayed fiscal stimulus and longer lockdowns are risks. A simple move in the equity risk premium back to the prior decade average of ~500-550bps (vs. current 437bps), would drop the S&P 500 down to 3000-3050.”

BMO Capital Markets: 4,200 (EPS: $175): ‘Expect another year of double-digit gains’

Credit Suisse: 4,050 (EPS: $168)

JPMorgan: 4,500 (EPS $178): ‘One of the best backdrops for sustained gains in years’

JPMorgan strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas.

“After a prolonged period of elevated risks (global trade war, COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. election uncertainty, etc.), the outlook is significantly clearing up, especially with news of a highly effective COVID-19 vaccine.”

“With an even balance of power in the legislature, major tax increases and regulatory changes will be difficult to pass, while at least some easing of the global trade war should be expected,” he said. “Global central bank policy remains very supportive (rates to remain at zero with ongoing [quantitative easing]). The prospect for another round of fiscal stimulus has improved as well, though scope and size should be narrower.”

“Given the above, we see the S&P 500 surpassing our price target of 3,600 before year-end and reaching 4,000 by early next year, with a good potential for the market to move even higher (~4,500) by the end of next year.”
:idea: ,,Amatérski investori investujúci pasívne do indexového fondu budú mať v dlhodobom horizonte lepšie výnosy ako profesionálni manažéri fondov,, Buffett :mesec:
:arrow: Vzdelávanie a užitočné info zadarmo: https://smartinvestor.sk
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