obrat trendu

[Honzajs]

Hypotéza poklesu HDP se probírá - to je přeci recese (při poklesu 2 kvartály po sobě).
O depresi se zatím nemluví.
Zle akciím dokáže nadělat třeba stagflace (zpomalení růstu spojené s růstem inflace) - a o té se mluví dost

[Honzajs]

NĚCO MÁLO Z VÝROČNÍ ZPRÁVY FANNIE MAE

We have experienced increased mortgage loan delinquencies and credit losses, which had a material adverse effect on our earnings, financial condition and capital position in 2007. Weak economic conditions in the Midwest and home price declines on a national basis, particularly in Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona, increased our single-family serious delinquency rate and contributed to higher default rates and loan loss severities in 2007. We are experiencing high serious delinquency rates and credit losses across our conventional single-family mortgage credit book of business, especially for loans to borrowers with low credit scores and loans with high loan-to-value (“LTV”) ratios.

In addition, in 2007 we experienced particularly rapid increases in serious delinquency rates and credit losses in some higher risk loan categories, such as Alt-A loans, adjustable-rate loans, interest-only loans, negative amortization loans, loans made for the purchase of condominiums and loans with second liens. Many of these higher risk loans were originated in 2006 and the first half of 2007…

We expect these trends to continue and that we will experience increased delinquencies and credit losses in 2008 as compared with 2007. The amount by which delinquencies and credit losses will increase in 2008 will depend on a variety of factors, including the extent of national and regional declines in home prices, interest rates and employment rates. In particular, we expect that the onset of a recession, either in the United States 24 as a whole or in specific regions of the country, would significantly increase the level of our delinquencies and credit losses. Increases in our credit-related expenses would reduce our earnings and adversely affect our capital position and financial condition. We may experience further write-downs and losses relating to our investment securities due to volatile and illiquid market conditions, which could adversely affect our earnings, liquidity, capital position and financial condition….

Jak vznikají MBS:


Celkem cca 100 stran čtení o ztrátách, rizicích...
Por opravdové fajnšmekry k dispozici zde:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/ ... 5e10vk.htm

[filip glasa]

http://www.patria.cz/Zpravodajstvi/1173 ... -nami.html

Je finanční krize za námi?

nejak priskoro

[Honzajs]

3-měsíční T-Bills nesou 0,4%. To už toho Fed s úroky moc nezmůže. A máme tu Japonsko před 20 lety... až dodnes

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

[Bobikpp]

Je finanční krize za námi?

nejak priskoro[/quote]

tiez mi to prijde nejake prirychle - a tymto zposobom (masivny narast financnych akcii napr.) sa podla mna kriza nekonci..ci to nebude zase len nejake ta bear trap