DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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Trumpeta1978
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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Himars-Rakete tötet bis zu 100 Russen in der Ukraine
https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/a ... d#fromWall
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Rusi doteraz nedokazali znicit ani jeden jediny Himars. Pozrel som asi vsetky dostupne fotografie na Twitteri ktore mali znazornovat znicene Himarsi, ale vo vsetkych pripadoch islo v skutocnosti o trosky inych hoci vizualne podobnych nakladnych aut. A je to aj reálne, ze ziaden nebol zniceny, lebo doba medzi odpalom a odchodom z miesta je velmi kratka. A je to strazene, sleduju ci sa neblizi dron alebo stihacka a su na to pripraveni.
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Bývalý ruský výsadkář: Začali jsme idiotskou válku. Většina lidí v armádě je nešťastná z toho, co se děje
https://www.securitymagazin.cz/defence/ ... .sznhp.box
jaroslav80
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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Trumpeta1978 napísal: Št 18 08, 2022 6:39 pm
Bývalý ruský výsadkář: Začali jsme idiotskou válku. Většina lidí v armádě je nešťastná z toho, co se děje
Myslim, ze s tymto sa da plne suhlasit, pre obe strany a uz od roku 2014.

Je to podobne idiotska vojna, akoby sme sa tu tlkli mi s Poliakmi pre zaujmy trebars Indov.
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Trumpeta1978
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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Osobne rozumiem preco nevaroval a strategicky to bol asi ten z lepších tahov, či to bolo aj morálne a eticke, tazko povedat. Ak by to prezradil dopredu, tak by zacala panika a masovy exodus obyvatelstva. Tazke rozhodovanie.
Zelensky faces outpouring of criticism over failure to warn of war
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... rn-of-war/


KYIV, Ukraine — Until this week, Ukrainians seemed to see President Volodymyr Zelensky as beyond reproach, a national hero who stayed in Kyiv despite the risk to his personal safety to lead his country against invading Russian troops.
Comments he made to The Washington Post justifying his failure to share with Ukrainians details of repeated U.S. warnings that Russia planned to invade have punctured the bubble, triggering a cascade of public criticism unprecedented since the war began.

Ordinary people tweeted their experiences of chaos and dislocation after an invasion for which they were unprepared, and described how they might have made different choices had they known what was coming. Public figures and academics wrote harsh critiques on Facebook of his decision to downplay the risk of an invasion, saying he bears at least some responsibility for the atrocities that followed.

In the interview with The Post, published Tuesday, Zelensky cited his fears that Ukrainians would panic, flee the country and trigger economic collapse as the reason he chose not to share the stark warnings passed on by U.S. officials regarding Russia’s plans.

“If we had communicated that … then I would have been losing $7 billion a month since last October, and at the moment when the Russians did attack, they would have taken us in three days,” Zelensky said.

He added that subsequent events — with Russian troops failing to reach the capital — suggested he had made the right call.

“That’s what happened when the invasion started — we were as strong as we could be. Some of our people left, but most of them stayed here, they fought for their homes. And as cynical as it may sound, those are the people who stopped everything.”

Many Ukrainians took exception to the implication that Zelensky had prioritized the health of the economy over their well-being, and suggested that many lives might have been saved had the government adequately prepared the population for war.

Sevgil Musaieva, editor in chief of the Ukrainska Pravda, a Ukrainian news site, posted on Facebook that she was “personally offended” by Zelensky’s explanation, saying it called into question the intelligence of Ukrainians. She wouldn’t have fled, she said, and the $7 billion a month potential cost to the economy has to be weighed against the lives lost, the swift capture by Russia of parts of southern Ukraine and the fear and intimidation of civilians who unexpectedly found themselves under Russian occupation.

“Honestly, my hair stood on end when I read what [Zelensky] said about evacuation. … How can a person who has Mariupol, Bucha and Kherson on his conscience say that an evacuation would have overwhelmed the country?” wrote journalist Bohdan Butkevich on his Facebook page, referring to places where Russia has committed atrocities.

“He didn’t want to put the country on a military footing because he was afraid of losing power,” Butkevich wrote.

The lack of warning for civilians living in the threatened areas, and especially those with children, the elderly and those with impaired mobility, was “not a glitch, not a mistake, not an unfortunate misunderstanding, not a strategic miscalculation — it is a crime,” said Ukrainian author Kateryna Babkina.

The outpouring also included many defenses of Zelensky. Valerii Pekar, a publicist who teaches at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School, wrote on Facebook that Ukrainians had ample access to media reports about the American warnings.
“Anyone who did not pack his own rucksack after reading the news about American intelligence reports has no right to claim that he was not warned,” he said.

“We all knew, and understood, that war was coming. We just didn’t want to believe it because it’s too terrible to be true,” wrote Olena Gnes, founder of the What is Ukraine project, on her Facebook page. “None of Zelenskyi’s statements would have changed anything significantly.”

Some of the criticisms came from political opponents who would seize on any opportunity to attack the president, said Musaieva, the newspaper editor, in an interview. But many did not.

The level of outrage is unprecedented in wartime Ukraine, she said, and represents perhaps “the first serious communication crisis” for Zelensky, regarded as a master communicator, and his team.

Even those who said they understood why Zelensky didn’t want to provoke panic said they nonetheless wondered whether there were steps that could have been taken to alleviate the impact of the invasion — from preparing blood banks to digging trenches along the northern border to prevent Russian troops from overrunning many towns and villages before they were halted outside Kyiv.

Such questions had lingered, unspoken, since the ferocity of the invasion stunned the country on Feb. 24, ordinary Ukrainians said. But the consensus has been that Ukrainians need to unite and refrain from criticisms while the country is at war, said Oksana, 30, who was discussing the controversy Thursday in a Kyiv cafe with her partner. She asked that her full name not be used because the subject is sensitive.

Now that some people are raising questions about Zelensky’s choices, many are debating whether more could have been done, she said.

“My biggest question is about the level of atrocities we saw, and I think about whether they could have been prevented,” said Oksana, who did not vote for Zelensky but now supports him wholeheartedly as the leader Ukraine needs to win the war.

“It will damage us to discuss this now,” she said. “Ukraine is winning because of our belief in the president and our armed forces. So I’m ready to wait for the explanation until after we win the war.”

And then?

“Then we start asking questions,” she said. “There are questions that need answers because this is the society we are fighting for — a society of accountability.”
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Trumpeta1978
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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Noční výbuchy na Krymu. Ukrajinci možná zasáhli největší letiště okupantů
https://www.forum24.cz/nocni-vybuchy-na ... .sznhp.box
V ruské Belgorodské oblasti hoří muniční sklad
https://www.novinky.cz/zahranicni/evrop ... .seznam.cz

Vcera boli informacie ze Rusko stahuje vacsie mnozstvo S-300 na Krym. Zda sa ze to az tak velmi nepomaha.
jogo
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

Príspevok od používateľa jogo »

Trumpeta1978 napísal: Pi 19 08, 2022 6:22 am
Noční výbuchy na Krymu. Ukrajinci možná zasáhli největší letiště okupantů
https://www.forum24.cz/nocni-vybuchy-na ... .sznhp.box
V ruské Belgorodské oblasti hoří muniční sklad
https://www.novinky.cz/zahranicni/evrop ... .seznam.cz

Vcera boli informacie ze Rusko stahuje vacsie mnozstvo S-300 na Krym. Zda sa ze to az tak velmi nepomaha.
Možno začína partizánska vojna na okupovaných územiach....
-Disclaimer: Všetky informácie, ktoré poskytujem na tomto fóre, sú určené výhradne ku študijným účelom. V žiadnom prípade neslúžia ako investičné doporučenie.
jaroslav80
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 022-08-18/
South Korean President Yoon has said he is willing to provide phased economic aid to North Korea if it ended nuclear weapons development and began denuclearisation.

"It would have been more favourable for his image to shut his mouth, rather than talking nonsense as he had nothing better to say," Kim Yo Jong said in a statement released by state news agency KCNA, calling Yoon "really simple and still childish" to think that he could trade economic cooperation for the North's honour and nuclear weapons.
"No one barters its destiny for corn cake," she added.
Tomu sa diplomaticky hovori - aka otazka, taka odpoved...
Kim Yo Jong.JPG
Skoda, ze Zelensky nema v EU nejakeho kamosa, ktory by mu podobne otvorene odpovedal na jeho vyplody.
Er Zel Gut.JPG
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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jogo napísal: Pi 19 08, 2022 8:06 am
Trumpeta1978 napísal: Pi 19 08, 2022 6:22 am
Noční výbuchy na Krymu. Ukrajinci možná zasáhli největší letiště okupantů
https://www.forum24.cz/nocni-vybuchy-na ... .sznhp.box
V ruské Belgorodské oblasti hoří muniční sklad
https://www.novinky.cz/zahranicni/evrop ... .seznam.cz

Vcera boli informacie ze Rusko stahuje vacsie mnozstvo S-300 na Krym. Zda sa ze to az tak velmi nepomaha.
Možno začína partizánska vojna na okupovaných územiach....
partizani napr v Chersone intenzivne funguju uz dlhsie :)
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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Trumpeta1978 napísal: Pi 19 08, 2022 8:43 am partizani napr v Chersone intenzivne funguju uz dlhsie :)
Vidíš, vidíš, odporcov okupácie v Afganistane voláme teroristi a na Ukrajine partizáni. :)

Budem celkom rád, ak Rusi si neudržia obsadené územia, kvôli odporu miestného obyvateľstva na obsadených územiach. To by bolo memento pre všetky bojachtivé svetové veľmoci.
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Trumpeta1978
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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jogo
Cherson Rusi neudrzia, otazkou je len cas :)
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Usa podporuju Ua aj nadalej
https://www.novinky.cz/zahranicni/ameri ... .seznam.cz
jaroslav80
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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Teroristicke utoky v Afganistane boli posledny rok aj po odchode US-Army a pocas vlady Talibanu. Len ich bolo menej. Vzdy bude cast populacie nespokojna s aktualnou vladou a cast z toho budu extremisti.
V tak rozpoltenej krajine ako su oblasti Ukrajiny v blizkosti sucasnej frontovej linie vzdy budes mat takmer 50% obyvatelstva nespokojnych, ci uz by tam vladla Bidenova alebo Putinova figurka.

Co sa "partizanskych" akcii na uzemi ovladanom Zelenskeho jednotkami tyka, tam staci zatelefonovat Ukrajinskemu rusky hovoriacemu kamosovi z Donbasu, kde municny sklad je alebo kam priviezli zapadne zbrane. A nejaka ruska stihacka alebo balisticka raketa to nasledne vyriesi. Zelensky predsa uz viac krat robil cistky ohladom "zradcov". UA saboteri sa doteraz museli spoliehat najma na trhaviny, helikoptery a drony v poslednom case sa im v tomto smere trochu ulahcilo HIMARSami a lepsimi dronami.

Kazdopadne gamechanger to nie je, lebo kazdy den je konvencnymi bojmi znicenych povedzme 10-20 municnych skladov a miest koncentracie bojovnikov ... a na titulky sa dostanu 1-2 uspesne akcie saboterov, lebo su odlisne tym, ze boli v zazemi.

Povedzme si na rovinu, kolko je v Rusku asi takych municnych skladov, ako vyletel do vzduchu pri Belgorode? 2000-3000? Ked Ruska armada ma milion vojakov a kazdych 500 vojakov by malo zbrane a municiu uskladnene niekde, tak ti vyjde 2000 skladov.
Naposledy upravil/-a jaroslav80 v Pi 19 08, 2022 10:15 am, upravené celkom 1 krát.
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Trumpeta1978
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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To by ma tiez zaujimalo kolko je tych skladov. Ono nejde ani tak o znicenie municie ako o znizenie logistiky pre vojakov na frontovej linii. Plus reeba mysliet na to ze znicenie skladu sa rovna aj zniceniu nejakkych nakladnych aut na prepravu to su dalsie straty.
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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Ked Ruska armada ma milion vojakov a kazdych 500 vojakov by malo zbrane a municiu uskladnene niekde, tak ti vyjde 2000 skladov.
Zoberme ze z tych 500 su realne 250 administrativni a support zamestnanci, ale aj tych zvysnych 250 vojakov osluhuje trebars 10 diel a 10 tankov a municiu a dielce k tomu musia mat ulozene v nejakom skladisku. A ked jeden z nich je pro-NATO naladeny, tak raz za cas taky sklad vyleti do vzduchu.

Co sa nakladnych aut tyka, v 145-milionovom Rusku ich bude asi kolko? Jedno na 100 ludi = milion a pol. Bum, vybuchli nam 4 nakladiaky; hrozne. Rychlo podme zaplnit titulky na Reuters a CNN obrovskym Zelenskeho uspechom, aby mal co vykazat Bidenovi, ze tam tie miliardy USD netopili nadarmo v tom pre miestnych ludi nezmyselnom bratrovrazebnom boji medzi Ukrajincami a Rusmi. Z ktorych vacsina ma starych rodicov z ruskej aj ukrajinskej strany.

Ked sa dvaja manzelia dohaduju a rozvadzaju a niekto treti im tam z pozadia este dolieva oleja do ohna - to je v sucanosti rola a pozicia USA a ich NATO trpazlicich poskokov.
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Trumpeta1978
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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Praveze Rusko ma pomerne problem s dostatkom nakladnych aut, preto ich zacalo aj dovazat z Ciny. Pocas ofenzivy ich Ua znicilo pomerne vela. Ruske straty by som nepodcenoval.
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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V Iraku tie tanky boli pojazdné rakvy, ale tam je púšť a to iracká armáda bola tretia najsilnejšia na svete. Dnes tam(v Iraku) je asi tiež blahobyt, pritom to územie má aj bez ropy na oveľa viac...

V Rusku(a čiastočne aj na Ukrajine) je veľké sťahovanie do metropol, pritom keby pohli rozumom, tak si to zariadia trocha inak, možnosti na to majú veľké a aj stredoázijské štáty trocha pokročili od sovietskeho plánovania a ničenia prírody(aj keď nie veľa)...

To je podobné ako dnes každý chce byť buď ITčkár, doktor alebo právnik(a možno ešte masmediálna komunikácia)...
jaroslav80
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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hifron napísal: Pi 19 08, 2022 10:39 am iracká armáda bola tretia najsilnejšia na svete.
Papierova sila armady a realna bojaschopnost su dve rozdielne veci. Co vidno nakoniec aj na tvojom priklade Saddamovej armady. I ked v podstate stala voci armade NATO, ktora ju aj papierovo nasobne prevysovala, tak vysledok "Pustnej burky" mal dopadnut, ako dopadol.

Napr. po Cine, Rusku a USA je KLDR papierovo stvrtou najsilnejsou ponorkovou velmocou (r. 2022) a boli casy, ked papierovo boli myslim aj treti.
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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Ono islo o kvalitu tankov.
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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V sucasnej faze zakopovej delostreleckej vojny a ustaleneho frontu je kvalita tankov asi dost vedlajsia. Navyse od februara mali Rusi na bojisku neustale vyssiu kvalitu a nasobne vyssie mnozstvo tankov, nez Ukrajinci. Pricom drviva vacsina tankov pouzitych na oboch stranach bola aj tak vyvinuta este v ZSSR.

______________________

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-715087
Russia’s military is running enlistment campaigns in Central Asian countries Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as the number of Russians willing to fight in Ukraine decreases, Ukraine's intelligence service (GUR) claimed.

Foreign recruits are being offered financial incentives, as well as Russian citizenship if they enlist in the Russian Armed Forces.

GUR also reported in March that Syrian President Bashar Assad has promised to provide up to 40,000 militants to the Russian Federation for the war in Ukraine.
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Trumpeta1978
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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Vo vojne v Iraku boli tankove divizie zasadne a tam sa ukazalo ze T 72 bol uz vtedy zastarany tank oproti Abramsom.
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

Príspevok od používateľa jaroslav80 »

Drviva letecka a balisticka prevaha NATO bola zrejme vacsim faktorom zdrvujuceho vitazstva NATO nez to, ci Abrams bol o 30% lepsi tank nez T72.
___________________________________

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk ... 022-08-19/
Ukraine says Russia plans to disconnect nuclear plant's power blocks from grid

"The Russian military is currently looking for fuel suppliers for the diesel generators, which are supposed to turn on after the power units are shut down in the absence of an external power supply for the nuclear fuel cooling systems," the Ukrainian statement said.

Turning the plant off would pile new pressure on Ukrainian supplies, particularly in the south. Ukraine is already bracing for its most difficult winter since independence and preparing for a possible energy shortage.
No a mame tu cierne na bielom potvrdene, preco o Zaporoznej elektrarni posledny tyzden pocuvame denno-denne, hoci predchadzajuce 4 mesiace sme nepocuvali. Rusi ju maju obsadenu uz od marca. Kym dodavali elektrinu nadalej do ukrajinskej elektrickej siete, nebol ziadny problem a ziadne strachy Zelenskeho o nuklearnu bezpecnost. Je to klaun ako sa patri. Jeho volici mu budu blahorecit pri svieckach.

Rusi niektore bloky zrejme odstavia a nasledne prepoja do siete zasobujucej elektrinou Krym.

Kym sa Zelensky v marci chvastal, ako hrdinsky odraza utoky 30-tisicovej ruskej udernej skupiny na 3 milionovy Kyjev, Rusi mu zatial zobrali Cherson, Zaporoznu elektraren a obklucili Mariupol. A teraz sa zobudil, ze vtedy pred pol rokom vlastne prisiel o trumfy, tak sa zahrava s ostrelovanim atomovej elektrarne.
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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Německo by kvůli zajištění dostatku zemního plynu pro nadcházející zimu mělo rychle zprovoznit zablokovaný plynovod Nord Stream 2. V rozhovoru s mediální skupinou RND to prohlásil místopředseda vládních svobodných demokratů (FDP) Wolfgang Kubicki. Podle něj neexistuje rozumný důvod proti zprovoznění produktovodu.
Kubicki uvedl, že by ale Německo souhlas s uvedením plynovodu do provozu mělo vydat, protože nemá kvůli omezeným dodávkám ruského plynu co ztratit. „Pokud by k nám touto trasou přišlo více plynu, možná dokonce celý nasmlouvaný objem, pomohlo by to, aby lidé v zimě nemuseli mrznout a aby náš průmysl neutrpěl vážné škody,” řekl. Poznamenal, že právě to je prvořadou povinností německé vlády.
Kubicki nesouhlasí s názorem, že by otevření Nord Streamu 2 bylo pro Putina vítězstvím. „Putinovým největším propagandistickým úspěchem by bylo, kdyby nám došel plyn, zatímco on by na nás ještě dobře vydělával. Tomu je třeba zabránit,” řekl.
Volání po spuštění Nord Streamu 2 ale bude zřejmě v příštích týdnech sílit. Na poplach totiž bijí němečtí průmyslníci. Podle nich rekordní ceny elektřiny a takřka rekordní ceny plynu, jež nyní nastávají, můžou vést k postupné deindustrializaci Německa.
Motor evropské ekonomiky by tedy postupně přišel o svůj průmysl. Netřeba připomínat, že Česko tím pádem také. Zkázu by to přineslo ale celému evropskému hospodářství. Německo a některé další země typu Nizozemska totiž skrze Evropskou centrální banku zastřeně financují země typu Itálie nebo Španělska, které by jinak byly v bankrotovém stavu již nyní. Pokud nebude mít Německo svůj průmysl v jeho současné síle, nebude mít ani z čeho financovat mnohem chudší, předlužený jih eurozóny.
Není důvod neotevřít Nord Stream 2, řekl německý vládní politik. Až na zničené NATO a EU, opáčil kolega
f.i.r.e.
has no top because fiat has no bottom
“There are three classes of people: those who see, those who see when they are shown, and those who do not see.” - Leonardo da Vinci
capitalcapital
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

Príspevok od používateľa capitalcapital »

Na Legionellu asi zabudli, respektíve to ženú na hranu.

https://ekonomika.pravda.sk/ekologia/cl ... -2-stupne/
... že ohrev teplej vody bude znížený na maximálne 50 stupňov Celzia ...
ECDC pritom odporúča:
Zabezpečte, aby teplá voda dosahovala teplotu 50 °C – 60 °C (príliš horúca, aby ste v nej udržali ruky dlhšie ako niekoľko sekúnd) v celom vodovodnom systéme a stále cirkulovala.
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osamely chodec
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

Príspevok od používateľa osamely chodec »

staci 1x tyzdenne termicka dezinfekcia systemu na par minut zohriat na 80-90 stupnov a nechat cirkulovat,

z teplej vody by som zasadne nevaril.
Existujú starí obchodníci a odvážni obchodníci. Je len veľmi málo starých, odvážnych obchodníkov. “ -Ed Seykota-
Porozumiet znamená zvyknúť si.
Láska nad zlato, myšlienka nad majetok.
Chodci a cyklisti vážia menej ako šoféri a šoférky. (prieskum EU)
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

Príspevok od používateľa Peter222 »

Ja dezinfikujem na 60 st. vraj to stačí :) štandardný ohrev mám 45 st. Ale až tam tak zahrialo pri srdiečku po slovách úspor z prezidentského paláca...snáď sa irónia dá preniesť aj cez sklo na monitore :lol:
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Test tanku po germánsku: Němci otestovali přesnost míření a stabilitu hlavně Leopardu II pomocí sklenice plné piva
https://armadnizpravodaj.cz/pozemni-tec ... .sznhp.box
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

Príspevok od používateľa jaroslav80 »

Adammd napísal: Pi 19 08, 2022 1:36 pm
Volání po spuštění Nord Streamu 2 ale bude zřejmě v příštích týdnech sílit. Na poplach totiž bijí němečtí průmyslníci. Podle nich rekordní ceny elektřiny a takřka rekordní ceny plynu, jež nyní nastávají, můžou vést k postupné deindustrializaci Německa.
Nemci mali v prvom rade spustit Nord Stream 2 uz v 2021 a osem rocna vojna na UA nemusela byt vyeskalovana k Ruskej invazii februara 2022. Lebo Zelenskemu by bolo jasne, ze ak si bude proti "separatistom na Donbase" prilis vyskakovat, EU si bude zit svojim zivotom cez NS2 a on moze akurat tak dostat od Rusov po prstoch.
Amici by sami tiez neisli hrat vojnu USA+UK+UA vs Rusko. Bez EU.
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Príspevok od používateľa Trumpeta1978 »

takéto a podobné denne straty su pre Rusko dlhodobo neudrzatelne /pic/

--
V USa je stale velmi silna podpora pre dodavky dalsich zbraní aj pokrocilejsej municie pre Ua
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-se ... -too-late/
--
Rusové vyvezli miliardy dolarů. Peníze putovaly do „nikoliv přátelských zemí“
https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/ekon ... -internetu
--
apropo, Jaroslav, ty si tu niekde uvadzal teoreticke počty ruskej armady. Ok, len treba mysliet na to, že do toho je zapocitana aj zeleznicna policia ci Rosgvardiya. Tieto obe formácie su sice početné, ale nemajú výcvik ani výzbroj rovnaký aká je u vojakov armády a pod armádne velenie ani nepatria. A neboj sa, Ua si zase ten Cherson skor ci nekosr prevezme nazad. Pozri sa ake akcie robia neustale nielen na Kryme ale aj priamo v Rusku. Je dost pravdepodobne ze nakoniec Biden kývne aj na 300km Atacmsi a to len potom zacne diskotéka. A ze ma Rusko stale vela skladov? To ano, ale nie na Kryme ani Chersone.
Prílohy
Fah27M7VQAcGj3J.jpg
Naposledy upravil/-a Trumpeta1978 v Pi 19 08, 2022 6:34 pm, upravené celkom 1 krát.
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Príspevok od používateľa wladas »

Proč by Ukrajina útočila na svojí jadernou elektrárnu?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49HeoY-0iFY

Celkom pekna spekulacia. Elektraren nie je len reaktor.
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Ukrainian oligarch says he placed Jewish death curse on Putin
https://www.jpost.com/omg/article-714782

kliatba je viazaná na bombardovanie mesta Dnipro, presnejsie, ak by ho Putin dopustil
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Russia’s spies misread Ukraine and misled Kremlin as war loomed
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in ... table-main

KYIV, Ukraine — In the final days before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s security service began sending cryptic instructions to informants in Kyiv. Pack up and get out of the capital, the Kremlin collaborators were told, but leave behind the keys to your homes.

The directions came from senior officers in a unit of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) with a prosaic name — the Department of Operational Information — but an ominous assignment: ensure the decapitation of the Ukrainian government and oversee the installation of a pro-Russian regime.

The messages were a measure of the confidence in that audacious plan. So certain were FSB operatives that they would soon control the levers of power in Kyiv, according to Ukrainian and Western security officials, that they spent the waning days before the war arranging safe houses or accommodations in informants’ apartments and other locations for the planned influx of personnel.

“Have a successful trip!” one FSB officer told another who was being sent to oversee the expected occupation, according to intercepted communications. There is no indication that the recipient ever made it to the capital, as the FSB’s plans collapsed amid the retreat of Russian forces in the early months of the war.

The communications exposing these preparations are part of a larger trove of sensitive materials obtained by Ukrainian and other security services and reviewed by The Washington Post. They offer rare insight into the activities of the FSB — a sprawling service that bears enormous responsibility for the failed Russian war plan and the hubris that propelled it.

An agency whose domain includes internal security in Russia as well as espionage in the former Soviet states, the FSB has spent decades spying on Ukraine, attempting to co-opt its institutions, paying off officials and working to impede any perceived drift toward the West. No aspect of the FSB’s intelligence mission outside Russia was more important than burrowing into all levels of Ukrainian society.

And yet, the agency failed to incapacitate Ukraine’s government, foment any semblance of a pro-Russian groundswell or interrupt President Volodymyr Zelensky’s hold on power. Its analysts either did not fathom how forcefully Ukraine would respond, Ukrainian and Western officials said, or did understand but couldn’t or wouldn’t convey such sober assessments to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The humiliations of Russia’s military have largely overshadowed the failures of the FSB and other intelligence agencies. But in some ways, these have been even more incomprehensible and consequential, officials said, underpinning nearly every Kremlin war decision.

“The Russians were wrong by a mile,” said a senior U.S. official with regular access to classified intelligence on Russia and its security services. “They set up an entire war effort to seize strategic objectives that were beyond their means,” the official said. “Russia’s mistake was really fundamental and strategic.”

Ukraine’s security services have an interest in discrediting Russia’s spy agencies, but key details from the trove were corroborated by officials in Western governments.

The files show that the FSB unit responsible for Ukraine surged in size in the months leading up to the war and was counting on support from a vast network of paid agents in Ukraine’s security apparatus. Some complied and sabotaged Ukraine’s defenses, officials said, while others appear to have pocketed their FSB payments but balked at doing the Kremlin’s bidding when the fighting started.

There are records that add to the mystery of Russian miscalculations. Extensive polls conducted for the FSB show that large segments of Ukraine’s population were prepared to resist Russian encroachment, and that any expectation that Russian forces would be greeted as liberators was unfounded. Even so, officials said, the FSB continued to feed the Kremlin rosy assessments that Ukraine’s masses would welcome the arrival of Russia’s military and the restoration of Moscow-friendly rule.

“There was plenty of wishful thinking in the GRU and the military, but it started with the FSB,” said a senior Western security official, using the GRU abbreviation for Russia’s main military intelligence agency. “The sense that there would be flowers strewn in their path — that was an FSB exercise.” He and other security officials in Ukraine, the United States and Europe spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence.

Adhering to these erroneous assumptions, officials said, the FSB championed a war plan premised on the idea that a lightning assault on Kyiv would topple the government in a matter of days. Zelensky would be dead, captured or in exile, creating a political vacuum for FSB agents to fill.

Instead, FSB operatives who at one point had reached the outskirts of Kyiv had to retreat alongside Russian forces, Ukrainian security officials said. Rather than presiding over the formation of a new government in Kyiv, officials said, the FSB now faces difficult questions in Moscow about what its long history of operations against Ukraine — and the large sums that financed them — accomplished.

The FSB did not respond to requests for comment.

The FSB’s plans and the efforts of Ukraine’s security agencies to thwart them — with backing from the CIA, Britain’s MI6 and other Western intelligence services — are part of a shadow war that has played out in parallel to Russia’s military campaign. It is a conflict that was underway long before the Feb. 24 invasion, and its battle lines are blurred by the tangled, overlapping histories of Russian services and Ukrainian counterparts that began as offspring of the Soviet-era KGB.

Six months into the war, neither side appears to have a clear upper hand.

Ukraine’s security agencies have scored notable victories. Early on, a Ukrainian nongovernmental organization published what it described as a roster of FSB operatives linked to the war effort, posting the identities and passport numbers of dozens of alleged spies in a move meant to disrupt the agency’s plans and rattle its personnel. A person connected to the NGO, which is called Myrotvorets, or Peacemaker, said the data was obtained by Ukraine’s security services. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing threats to his security.

At the same time, Ukraine’s main internal security service, the SBU, has struggled to rid its ranks of Russian moles and saboteurs. Several senior officers have been arrested and branded traitors by Zelensky, who took the extraordinary step in July of removing SBU Director Ivan Bakanov — a childhood friend — from his post.

Putin is not believed to have taken comparable action against any of his spy chiefs, despite the scale of their misjudgments.

“If your security services put such a high priority on understanding Ukraine, and your military plan is based on that understanding, how could they have gotten it so wrong?” said William B. Taylor Jr., who twice served as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, including in an acting capacity in 2019. “How could they have assumed the Ukrainians wouldn’t fight, that President Zelensky would not resist so valiantly? The disconnect has to be somewhere between the FSB and the very top.”

Among those making plans to arrive in Kyiv in late February was Igor Kovalenko, identified by Ukraine as a senior FSB officer who had for years been a principal handler of some of the most prominent Ukrainian politicians and government officials secretly on the Kremlin’s payroll, including members of the opposition party co-chaired by Viktor Medvedchuk, a close friend of Putin.

An exchange Kovalenko had with an FSB subordinate on Feb. 18 suggests that he had his eye on an apartment in Kyiv’s leafy Obolon neighborhood, overlooking the Dnieper River.

Intercepted communications show that Kovalenko asked for the address of the apartment and contact details for an FSB informant who occupied it. Ukrainian authorities said the resident was subsequently detained and questioned.

Kovalenko’s subordinate sent back the address, phone numbers and code words used to communicate with the informant, who served in Zelensky’s government, Ukrainian officials said.

The officials declined to identify the informant but said he admitted that he had received FSB instructions days before the invasion to pack his belongings, leave his keys and get out of the capital to ensure his personal security during the war’s initial phase.

Other informants detained by Ukrainian authorities have provided similar accounts, one of the officials said. “They had been told, ‘When you return, it will all be different.’ ”

Details published by Peacemaker and confirmed by Ukrainian security officials describe Kovalenko as a 47-year-old veteran of the spy service who in recent years was responsible for managing the agency’s clandestine ties to Ukraine’s parliament and main pro-Russian party.

Kovalenko did not respond to requests for comment.

Ukrainian authorities believe that Kovalenko may have been just miles from the capital in March, accompanying Russian forces then outside the city. But the FSB team assigned to set up operations in Kyiv had to abandon that plan when Russia’s forces began their retreat, officials said.

The Obolon apartment was placed under surveillance by the SBU after the address surfaced in communications intercepts, officials said. Neither Kovalenko nor any other FSB officer ever turned up to claim the keys.

Kovalenko is a senior officer in an FSB unit — the Ninth Directorate of the Department of Operational Information — whose main purpose has for years been to ensure Ukraine’s servility to Moscow.

The department is overseen by a senior FSB officer, Sergey Beseda, who started his career with the KGB in the late 1970s, according to Ukrainian officials, and was assigned to overseas posts including Cuba before returning to Moscow to head operations in Ukraine, Georgia and other former Soviet republics.

After protests erupted in Kyiv in late 2013 against the pro-Russian government of Viktor Yanukovych, Beseda turned up in the Ukrainian capital urging Yanukovych to use deadly force to put down an uprising that would come to be known as the Maidan Revolution, Ukrainian officials said.

When the protesters prevailed, Yanukovych fled to Russia with a group of senior advisers suspected of working with Beseda’s branch in the years that followed to bring a pro-Russian government back to power.

That project appeared to take on new urgency in the two years leading up to the February invasion.

In 2019, the FSB began a major expansion of its Ukraine unit, a group that grew from 30 officers to as many as 160 last summer, according to Ukrainian officials who cited intercepted communications and other intelligence.

To entice recruits from other branches, the FSB offered bonuses and free housing in buildings adjacent to the FSB training academy on Michurinsky Prospekt in Moscow, officials said. Arriving officers were assigned territories in Ukraine and tasked with developing lists of collaborators to work with, as well as adversaries to neutralize.

[In Ukrainian villages, whispers of collaboration with the Russians]

At first, the surge was seen as another venture aimed at “returning Russian influence in Ukraine,” said a security official in Kyiv involved in tracking FSB operations. But in retrospect, it may have been an early signal that Russia was shifting focus, the official said, from shaping events in Ukraine to plotting “its seizure.”

As Russia’s military mobilization accelerated last year, Ukraine’s security services were inundated with additional intelligence from Western spy services, officials said.

On Jan. 12, CIA Director William J. Burns arrived in Kyiv with a detailed dossier on Russia’s plans and a team of accompanying U.S. officials who sought to convince Zelensky and his inner circle that war was imminent.

Yet when the CIA team departed, Ukraine’s spy chiefs gathered with Zelensky to deliver a follow-on briefing that was far more equivocal.

“We relayed all the information that the Americans had shared without any changes,” said a participant. But at the same time, the official said, “our information said that the Russians are not planning war” on such a large scale, and that judgment was given equal weight alongside the CIA warnings.

The final weeks before the invasion were punctuated by a flurry of contradictory intelligence reports and confusing signals from European officials.

Ten days after Burns’s visit, the British government declared that it had “information that indicates the Russian government is looking to install a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv as it considers whether to invade and occupy Ukraine.”

The British file identified a pro-Russian former member of Ukraine’s parliament, Yevhen Murayev, “as a potential candidate,” a claim that Murayev dismissed as “ridiculous and funny” in a response to the Associated Press. The British statement also listed former members of Yanukovych’s cabinet, alleging that they had links to Russian intelligence and that officers they were in contact with were “involved in the planning for an attack on Ukraine.”

About the same time, Ukraine’s security agencies picked up indications that FSB operatives were in direct communication with Russia’s airborne forces, officials said. Such direct interaction between the FSB and military units was so unusual, officials said, that it was regarded as a worrisome sign of joint operational planning.

That concern seems to have been well-placed. Russia’s airborne forces played a pivotal role in the capture of an airport in Hostomel, on the outskirts of Kyiv, in the early hours of the invasion. It was a key node for the anticipated assault on the capital, and FSB officers were observed there before Russian forces were driven from the airstrip, officials said.

Other late-arriving intelligence, however, seemed to cast doubt on the idea that Russia was even prepared for, let alone planning, full-scale combat.

In mid-February, Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service, the SZRU, sent agents into Russia to carry out surveillance operations on military units. One team encountered a Potemkin village of Russian hardware, officials said, with dozens of parked tanks accompanied by a small security detail. No tank operators or maintenance crews were anywhere in the vicinity.

Elsewhere, Ukraine’s spies came upon a scene of disciplinary mayhem: lines of stranded Russian vehicles accompanied by troops who had bartered fuel and other supplies for alcohol. “A lot of them were drunk,” said a Ukrainian official who reviewed reports on what Ukraine’s spies had witnessed.

The scenes fed doubts among security advisers to Zelensky, some of whom were understandably disinclined to believe that their country’s days might be numbered. Even now, months later, many continue to express disbelief that Russia pressed ahead so poorly prepared.

European officials also remained skeptical. In Kyiv on Feb. 8, French President Emmanuel Macron said he had received a personal assurance from Putin that Russia would not escalate the situation. Germany’s spy chief, Bruno Kahl, had said days earlier that Putin’s decision on whether to attack had “not yet been made.” (Kahl was in Kyiv on the day the invasion began and had to be evacuated by car to Poland.)

In the end, many Ukrainian security officials believed that Russia’s military buildup was largely a psychological ploy, but that Moscow might use missile strikes and incursions by airborne units and elite Spetsnaz troops to topple a government it saw as teetering. At the time, Zelensky’s approval ratings had plummeted to around 26 percent as Ukraine faced an energy crisis and pressure on its currency that officials attributed to Russian sabotage.

“We didn’t envision … some classic invasion in Second World War style with tanks, artillery and infantry,” a senior Ukrainian security official said. Ukraine was wrong about Russia’s intentions, he said, but even Moscow may not have envisioned a major land war.

“They expected somebody to open the gate,” the official said. “They didn’t expect any resistance.”

In an interview this month with The Post, Zelensky said that well before the invasion, Russia had been waging “a hybrid war against our state. There was an energy blow, there was a political blow.”

“They wanted a change of power from inside the country,” he said. “I had the feeling that [the Russians] wanted to prepare us for a soft surrender.”

IV

Ukraine’s SBU — like its Russian counterpart — is a direct descendant of the KGB. It occupies the former KGB headquarters in Kyiv, is organized around the same bureaucratic structure as its Soviet predecessor, and employs an undisclosed number of officers who trained at the KGB academy in Moscow or its FSB successor after the Soviet breakup.

The agencies’ entangled histories bring a hall-of-mirrors aspect to the conflict.

Current and former Ukrainian security officials said fear about the loyalties of even senior personnel is a source of constant anxiety. One official said he reached for his phone on the war’s second day to begin calling subordinates to relay orders. But he hesitated as he dialed, he said, worried that his calls would go unanswered or reveal that senior lieutenants had thrown their support to the Russians.

He was stunned, he said, when those he called not only answered but followed orders with a precision and determination that were rare before the conflict.

“It’s a paradox of the Ukrainian state,” the official said. “It was believed, including by Ukrainians themselves, that there was a high level of corruption, inefficiency and infiltration of Russian agents in the Ukrainian government structures.” But after Feb. 24, he said, “they not only worked but also worked more efficiently than ever.”

He and others attributed much of that resilience to the example Zelensky set with his decision to remain in the capital. His ability to do so was due in part to the existence of a massive bunker complex under Kyiv’s government quarter that was designed by Soviet engineers and built to survive nuclear conflict.

A senior adviser described being taken to meet Zelensky in the first weeks of the war and descending into a disorienting warren of tunnels and command posts. “I still can’t say to you where [Zelensky’s base of operations] is exactly,” he said, because the complex is such a labyrinth.

Ukraine has made repeated attempts to cleanse its ranks of Russian assets, at one point even enlisting a CIA officer to serve as an internal adviser on rooting out FSB penetrations, according to former U.S. officials. But with an estimated 27,000 employees — making the SBU at least five times as large as MI5, its British equivalent — the agency has struggled to surmount the problem.

“Is there treachery? What can I say?” Zelensky said. “With all my love for Ukraine, we are not without sin.” The number of those who are not loyal to their country “has fallen over the years,” he said. Still, when the war started, “there were people who were working for Russians for money, and some who from the inside always hated Ukraine and were waiting for the Soviet Union to return.”

Several senior SBU officers have been charged with treason. Among them is the former head of the agency’s directorate in Kherson, in southern Ukraine, who was accused of ordering subordinates to abandon their posts as Russian forces flooded the region.


Last month, Ukrainian authorities arrested another SBU officer, Oleg Kulinich, who had been installed in the service’s upper ranks by Bakanov, the SBU director and childhood friend of Zelensky. The allegations against Kulinich underscore the pervasiveness of Russian penetrations. Charges filed by Ukrainian authorities describe him as part of a cell of sleeper agents operated by Vladimir Sivkovich, a former deputy head of Ukraine’s security council who was placed under sanction by the U.S. Treasury Department in January for working “with a network of Russian intelligence actors to carry out influence operations.”

Two years before the war, Sivkovich “set a task for Kulinich” to begin stealing secret internal SBU files that would be “of operational interest” to the “special services of the Russian Federation,” according to the charging document.

Together, according to the document, they conspired to help promote another alleged Russian spy to take control of the SBU’s counterintelligence department. That figure, Andriy Naumov, was arrested in Serbia in June carrying cash and gems worth more than $700,000, according to information released by Serbian authorities.

On the night before Russia’s invasion, Kulinich “deliberately” blocked the dissemination of intelligence warning that Russian forces in Crimea were hours from launching an attack, according to the Ukrainian indictment.

Zelensky’s decision to oust Bakanov as SBU director after Kulinich’s arrest was driven by exasperation with his failure to “cleanse” the agency of Russia sympathizers, said Andriy Smirnov, deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential office. “Six months into the war,” he said, “we continue to uncover loads of these people.”

Bakanov did not respond to requests for comment. Kulinich, Sivkovich and Naumov could not be reached for comment, and none appear to have made any public statement about the allegations against them.

Overall, Ukraine has detained more than 800 people suspected of aiding Russia through reconnaissance or sabotage, according to Ukraine’s Interior Ministry. Authorities have also moved against suspected “agents of influence” in government, parliament and politics.

Chief among them is Medvedchuk, the opposition party chairman who has such close ties to Putin that the Russian leader is the godfather of his youngest daughter. Ukrainian officials described Medvedchuk, 68, as a savvy political operator who harbored ambitions of high office himself and probably would have served as puppet-master to any regime installed by the Kremlin.

Zelensky’s government had charged Medvedchuk with treason in May 2021 and placed him under house arrest. Medvedchuk denied any wrongdoing and said he would fight to clear his name. He then escaped during the early days of the war, but was recaptured in April and now awaits trial. Medvedchuk’s lawyer, Tetyana Zhukovska, declined to comment this month, saying she could not do so until a Ukrainian court ruled in the treason case against her client.


“When they began on Feb. 24, the task was to take Kyiv,” said a Ukrainian security official. “They expected it would lead to a domino effect” that would ripple across the country. “They would take first central power and then they would have strengthened presence in regions.”

As part of that plan, Ukrainian officials said, the FSB had lined up at least two pro-Russian governments-in-waiting — not just one as the British government had warned. Ukraine officials said it was unclear why Russia had mobilized two groups, though some speculated that Putin may have simply wanted options.

One, positioned in Belarus, centered on Yanukovych. On March 7, a plane that belonged to the former Ukrainian president landed in Minsk, its arrival treated as an indication that Russia might seek to reinstate a politician Kremlin officials still referred to after his 2014 ouster as the country’s “legitimate” leader.

Yanukovych then issued an open letter to Zelensky, broadcast by a Russian state news agency, in which he told the Ukrainian president it was his duty to “stop the bloodshed and reach a peace deal at any price.” Over the following week, Yanukovych’s security chief spoke three times with a senior officer from the FSB’s Ukraine unit, according to data intercepted by Ukrainian intelligence.

Yanukovych did not respond to requests for comment. His former prime minister, Nikolai Azarov, said in a telephone interview with The Post that any suggestion that Moscow was seeking to engineer Yanukovych’s return to power was “total nonsense.”

A second group, which included former members of the Yanukovych government, gathered in southeastern Ukraine as territory there fell to Russian forces. Among them was Oleg Tsaryov, a former leading member of Yanukovych’s Party of Regions, who declared his presence in Ukraine on a post to the Telegram messaging app, saying that “Kyiv will be free from fascists.”

In a telephone interview with The Post last month, Tsaryov said he had even moved into areas around Kyiv during the initial weeks of the war, traveling with “friends” he declined to identify. He wouldn’t answer questions about whether he was part of any plot to seize power, saying only that when he was outside Kyiv, “I didn’t have any agreements with anyone about a new government.”

V

Nearly every intelligence service with a stake in the war made consequential misjudgments.

U.S. spy agencies were prescient on Putin’s intentions but underestimated Ukraine’s ability to withstand the onslaught — an error that contributed to the United States’ initial hesitation to send heavy and sophisticated weapons.

Ukraine’s services appear to have read too much into signs that Russian forces were ill-prepared for full-scale combat, resisting Western warnings of an invasion that came within miles of the capital.

Russia’s intelligence breakdowns in Ukraine seem more systemic, its work marred by unreliable sources, disincentives to deliver hard truths to the Kremlin, and an endemic bias that matched Putin’s contemptuous attitude toward the country.

The FSB fueled this dynamic, officials said, with assessments packaged to please the Kremlin and with sources who had their own reasons — political and financial — for encouraging a Russian takedown of the Kyiv government.

Confidential reports by a think tank with close ties to the FSB, the Moscow-based Institute of CIS Countries, prodded Moscow to reassert control over its neighbor. An early 2021 report obtained by The Post said that doing so was the only way to “rid Russia of the eternal threat … posed by the puppet state ready to carry out any order of the enemy forces of the West.”

The director of the institute, Konstantin Zatulin, insisted in a telephone interview that he had opposed the use of military force against Ukraine, and he blamed the Kremlin’s “inflated expectations” about what the invasion could accomplish on exaggerations by Kremlin allies in the country.

Foremost among them was Medvedchuk, who had served as presidential chief of staff in the early 2000s before amassing a business fortune and becoming co-leader of Ukraine’s main pro-Russian party.

Unlike other Ukrainian figures, Medvedchuk was in direct contact with Putin, according to officials who cited monitored communications. His was the most prominent voice in a chorus of Kremlin allies assuring Moscow that Zelensky was weak, that his government would collapse and that Russian forces would be welcomed by the Ukrainian people, officials said.

In recent years, Medvedchuk appeared to use his business empire to lay the groundwork for a Russian move against Kyiv. His TV stations routinely bashed Zelensky and aired pro-Russian propaganda, including discredited claims that the United States had biolabs in the country to help Ukraine develop biological weapons. His companies, which included a stake in an oil refinery in southern Russia, served as a conduit for money that flowed to pro-Russian forces and backed plots to destabilize the Kyiv government, officials said.

As his activities became more brazen, the United States and Ukraine moved against his network.

The U.S. Treasury Department, which had previously placed Medvedchuk under sanction, went after key party lieutenants in January, accusing them of collaborating with Russian intelligence on efforts to “take over the Ukrainian government and control Ukraine’s critical infrastructure with an occupying force.”

One of those sanctioned associates, Oleh Voloshyn, denied that he or Medvedchuk had any specific prior knowledge of Russia’s invasion plan or that they were seeking to overthrow the Zelensky government. In a telephone interview with The Post last month, Voloshyn blamed the war on Zelensky, saying the repression of Medvedchuk and his supporters forced Moscow to defend its allies.

“The choice was always becoming neutral voluntarily, or made neutral through force,” he said. “I don’t say this is good or bad. It’s just the reality.”

Almost immediately, the war failed to live up to Medvedchuk’s forecasts. And it was his political network, rather than Zelensky’s, that ultimately folded, with as many as a dozen senior party officials leaving the country.

Moscow’s subsequent spurning of Medvedchuk has been one of the few visible signs of Putin’s pique.

After Medvedchuk was recaptured in mid-April, Ukrainian authorities proposed sending him to Moscow as part of a prisoner swap. But officials said the Kremlin has shown no interest in any deal that would free the oligarch.

Often pictured before the war wearing immaculately tailored suits in meetings with the Russian leader, recent images released by Ukraine show Medvedchuk in prison fatigues and handcuffs.

To the Kremlin, “he is a traitor because he took all the money and delivered no results,” said Kostyantyn Batozsky, who was an adviser to a Donetsk governor before the region was taken over by pro-Russian separatists.

Medvedchuk “is a played card; they will never use him again,” Batozsky said. “He doesn’t want to go to Russia now because he will be asked the most unpleasant question in the world: What about the money? Where did it go?”

One of the more puzzling aspects of Russia’s miscalculation is that the FSB had received information suggesting that war with Ukraine would not be a walkover.

Recent polls conducted by an organization with close ties to the FSB showed that Putin was deeply unpopular in Ukraine and that the idea that Russian forces would be welcomed was fiction, according to copies obtained by Ukrainian intelligence.

An April 2021 poll by the firm Research & Branding found that 84 percent of Ukrainians would regard any further encroachment by Russian forces as an “occupation,” with just 2 percent seeing such a scenario as a “liberation.”

A second poll, conducted in late January just weeks before the war, queried Ukrainians about invasion scenarios in extraordinary detail, according to a 26-page document reviewed by The Post. It was commissioned by and presented to Sivkovich, the former Yanukovich aide who is accused of running sleeper agents, Ukrainian officials said.

Was a “great war” between the countries possible? the poll asked. Were people “feeling concerned for themselves and their loved ones” about the buildup of Russian forces? Was Ukraine’s army capable of fending off an invasion?

The most salient question appears toward the end of the poll: “Are you ready to defend Ukraine in the event of such a necessity?” Overall, 48 percent answered in the affirmative.

Ukrainian officials said the number should have been interpreted as a sign of resolve, showing that millions of citizens were ready to take up arms against Russia. The FSB, however, may have drawn a different conclusion from the same data, believing that only a minority of Ukrainians were committed to defending their country.

It is unclear whether the results of these surveys were accurately relayed to the Kremlin.

When contacted by telephone, Eduard Zolotukhin, Research & Branding’s director, asked The Post to send written questions, but then did not respond.

VII

The fallout for the FSB has been difficult to ascertain amid the information blackout imposed on Russian media by Putin.

Early reports that Beseda, responsible for the FSB’s Ukraine directorate, had been demoted or even imprisoned are viewed skeptically by U.S. and other intelligence officials, who say they have seen no information to suggest that any of Russia’s spy chiefs has faced such consequences.

“We have pretty good reason to believe that he’s still in the job,” a senior U.S. official said of Beseda. Nor, the official said, is there any indication that FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov has been held to account for his agency’s failures. A senior Russian politician with close links to the Kremlin and to the FSB also said in an interview that Beseda was continuing to carry out his duties.

Other reports indicated that Putin had sidelined the FSB because of its failures and given greater responsibility for Ukraine to the military-linked GRU. Ukrainian officials say otherwise.

“I don’t share this view,” one official said. The FSB “didn’t manage the task they were given. But they are continuing to work. Not with the same enthusiasm. But they continue.”

Ukrainian officials cited recent intelligence indicating that the FSB — like the Russian military — has regrouped, turning its focus to territories in the south and east that have been obliterated by Russian artillery.

“We can see it playing out now in Mariupol, Melitopol, Kherson” and other cities that have fallen to Russian forces, a Ukrainian intelligence official said. FSB officials swoop in to implement a version of the blueprint the agency originally had for Kyiv.

“The aim is political control, economic control, control over criminal groups — all spheres of activity on seized territory,” the intelligence official said. “The final aim is to install a pro-Russian power.”

Kherson, the first major city to fall to the Russian army, now offers a chilling glimpse into what life might have been like if Russia had taken Ukraine’s capital.

The city’s mayor, Ihor Kolykhaiev, was arrested in June after repeatedly refusing to cooperate with the Russian occupiers, and his whereabouts are unknown, an aide to the mayor said. He has been replaced by Oleksandr Kobets, a former KGB officer who had also once worked for the SBU.

The former mayor’s aide, Galina Lyashevskaya, said that at least 300 residents were unaccounted for when Kolykhaiev was ousted from his position in April. More recent estimates are at least double that.

Many more have been arrested, she said, and about half the city’s population of 300,000 has fled. In a recent report, Human Rights Watch documented dozens of cases of torture among Kherson’s residents.

“The FSB does not have any uniform, so you never know who is standing next to you,” Lyashevskaya said. “It is paradise for the FSB here. … They can force anyone to do what they want.”

Ukrainian officials said the FSB is involved in planning a referendum that would provide a pretext for incorporating the city and surrounding region into Russia. But Ukraine has begun staging forces for a major counteroffensive to retake Kherson.

With no end to the war in sight, FSB officials have begun operating on three-month rotations, according to Ukrainian security officials.

Kovalenko, the FSB operative who had inquired about a riverside apartment in Kyiv, retreated to Russia with a broken finger and apparent unease about Ukrainian penetrations of his directorate, according to Ukrainian security officials. In communications with relatives that were monitored by Ukrainian intelligence, he spoke about changing phones, switching addresses in Moscow and even selling family vehicles. Then, in late May, he revealed that he was being sent back to Ukraine for another assignment.

One relative responded to the news with a Russian expletive.

Ukrainian officials said they have not been able to determine Kovalenko’s current whereabouts.

Shane Harris, Karen DeYoung and Souad Mekhennet in Washington and Isabelle Khurshudyan and David L. Stern in Kyiv contributed to this report.
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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Čtyřiatřicetiletý parašutista Pavel Filaťjev sepisoval asi měsíc a půl každý den své zážitky z fronty. Ty nakonec publikoval na 141 stranách na ruské síti Vkontaktě. Aby unikl zatčení, ze země utekl.
https://www.novinky.cz/valka-na-ukrajin ... i-40406271

Ještě než ze země utekl, poskytl rozhovor pro britský deník Guardian. Ten nyní úryvky jeho zápisků publikoval s popisem, že jde zatím o „nejdetailnější popis z pohledu ruského vojáka podílejícího se na invazi na Ukrajinu“.

„Nechci to ospravedlňovat, ale myslím si, že je důležité vysvětlit, proč se lidé takhle chovají, aby je ostatní mohli pochopit a zastavit to,“ řekl britskému novináři Andrew Rothovi v jedné z moskevských kaváren. V tu chvíli už Filaťjev věděl, že po něm úřady jdou a že musí ze země zmizet.
Podle svých slov nevidí v aktuálním konfliktu „spravedlnost ani pravdu“. „Nebojím se bojovat ve válce, ale potřebuji cítit spravedlnost a rozumět tomu, že to, co dělám, je správné,“ říká.

Den po dni si zapisoval, co vidí a zažívá. Jak byla jeho výsadková jednotka vyslána z Krymu na pevninskou Ukrajinu, jak vstoupila do Chersonu, dobyla přístav a jak více než měsíc v zákopech odolávala dělostřelecké palbě u Mykolajivu. A jak byl nakonec poraněn a odvezen z fronty kvůli zánětu v oku.

Vysvětlil, proč rabují
Říct světu pravdu o skutečných poměrech v ruské armádě se rozhodl asi po měsíci, když seděl a nechával se ostřelovat Ukrajinci, kteří se snažili dobýt si zpět svůj Mykolajiv. „V tu chvíli už jsem si říkal, že tu akorát děláme kraviny, k čemu nám ta válka, sakra, je? A hlavou mi znělo: Bože, jestli to přežiju, tak udělám všechno pro to, abych to zastavil.“

Většinu času prý vojáci strávili uprostřed pole bez možnosti se pořádně vyspat nebo osprchovat. Jedli všechno, co našli, respektive ukradli. Na ničem jim nezáleželo.
„Všechno kolem nás vyvolávalo odporný pocit, jako ubožáci jsme se snažili akorát přežít,“ popisuje a dostává se k historce o tom, jak jeho kolega ukradl Ukrajincům počítač. „Vím, že tohle bude znít zahraničnímu čtenáři jako barbarství, ale ten voják věděl, že to (počítač) má větší cenu než jedna jeho výplata. Tak si ho vzal,“ říká Filaťjev.

„Beztak nevěděl, jestli bude druhý den naživu. Nesnažím se to ospravedlnit. Ale myslím, že je důležité vysvětlit, proč se takhle někdo chová, pochopit, jak jej lze zastavit... Čeho je člověk v takových extrémních situacích schopen,“ líčí mentalitu ruských okupantů.

V deníku, který je možné si přečíst v originále (odkaz zde), píše o vojácích, kteří se sami postřelili jenom proto, aby se dostali z fronty pryč a dosáhli na kompenzace. Většina vojáků prý není spokojená, je ale otázkou, zda to znamená, že s válkou nesouhlasí, nebo je jen frustrovaná ze špatného velení a nedostatečných výsledků.

Filaťjev zmiňuje i mučení a mrzačení těl ukrajinských vojáků, byť tvrdí, že se na zločinech sám nepodílel a ví o nich jen z doslechu.

Britský Guardian ve svém textu upozorňuje, že podrobnosti Filaťjevova příběhu nelze nezávisle ověřit, ale že novináři obdrželi spoustu dokumentů a fotografií, které dokazují, že skutečně sloužil jako výsadkář u 56. výsadkového pluku umístěného na Krymu a že byl v dubnu hospitalizován se zraněním oka, které utrpěl při „plnění speciálních úkolů na Ukrajině“.

Před zveřejněním svých zápisků rovněž odeslal –⁠ stejně jako tisíce dalších Rusů –⁠ stížnost na válku přímo do Kremlu.


Malú časť som narýchlo preložil z originálu:

Mám 33 rokov a celý život hovorím pravdu, aj keď je to na moju škodu, tak sa "mýlim" a nemôžem s tým nič robiť.
Nemôžem s tým nič robiť. Takže toto je vojna, naša ruská armáda strieľa na ukrajinskú armádu a ukrajinská armáda strieľa späť, dochádza k explózii strely a rakety, počuli ste niekedy zvuk strely, ktorá sa k vám blíži?

Ak nie, je to škoda, je to nezabudnuteľný pocit vibrácií a hvízdania vzduchu, keď všetci vnútornosti sa prevrátili, je to jednoducho dychberúce, a potom ak máte šťastie, počujete výbuch a myslíte si, že je to určite váš deň, samozrejme za predpokladu, že vás strela nezasiahne výbuchom a vaše telo nezasiahli črepiny, ale ak nie, dnes je zlý deň a tentoraz máš smolu, takže...je to pekelne náročná práca...
A na oboch stranách sú vojenské obete, ako aj civilisti, ktorí majú to šťastie, že žijú tam, kde sa rozhodli začať
vojnu a nazvať ju špeciálnou operáciou.
Áno, nesmieme zabúdať na hlad, ktorý sprevádza vojnu, choroby, bezsenné noci, nehygienické podmienky a život s neustálym adrenalínom, ktorý spotrebuje zdroje vášho tela pre silu, rýchlosť a reakcie, ale potom, keď keď sa vrátite z vojnovej zóny, cítite sa ako citrón a uvedomíte si, že nie ste takí zdraví, ako by ste mali byť...
:idea: ,,Amatérski investori investujúci pasívne do indexového fondu budú mať v dlhodobom horizonte lepšie výnosy ako profesionálni manažéri fondov,, Buffett :mesec:
:arrow: Vzdelávanie a užitočné info zadarmo: https://smartinvestor.sk
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

Príspevok od používateľa jaroslav80 »

JUGGLER napísal: Pi 19 08, 2022 8:39 pm Vysvětlil, proč rabují
Říct světu pravdu o skutečných poměrech v ruské armádě se rozhodl asi po měsíci, když seděl a nechával se ostřelovat Ukrajinci, kteří se snažili dobýt si zpět svůj Mykolajiv. „V tu chvíli už jsem si říkal, že tu akorát děláme kraviny, k čemu nám ta válka, sakra, je? A hlavou mi znělo: Bože, jestli to přežiju, tak udělám všechno pro to, abych to zastavil.“
Rusi predsa pocas ich "specialnej operacie" do Mykolajivu nevstupili, ale sa na vychode pri meste zakopali a zvysna cast pokracovala k elektrarni na severe. O par tyzdnov ich Zelenskeho Ukrajinci prinutili stiahnut sa k Chersonu.

Individualne reportaze maju urcitu hodnotu, ale su individualne. Tisice pribehov tisicov vojakov na oboch stranach, ktori maju rozpaky, preco tam vlastne bojuju. Zelensky aj Putin maju moznost zostrojit kopu vcelku logickych odovodneni, ale aby som isiel zastrelit niekoho a bol si s tym nasledne spokojny - to pochybujem ze by ma odovodnenie niektoreho z nich presvedcilo.
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

Príspevok od používateľa Trumpeta1978 »

Rusko nemá dostatek špičkových zbraní, ale ty zastaralé zatím zvládá na frontu dodávat
https://www.forum24.cz/rusko-nema-dosta ... .sznhp.box

--
Rusko ukryva v jadrovej elektrarni svoje zbrane ci municiu
Prílohy
SdkGvHER.jpg
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

Príspevok od používateľa jaroslav80 »

Trumpeta1978 napísal: So 20 08, 2022 8:25 am Rusko ukryva v jadrovej elektrarni svoje zbrane ci municiu
Zrejme tym Putin dava Zelenskemu najavo, ze tu elektraren pod kontrolu uz nikdy nedostane a ak by aj nejakym zazrakom ano, tak jedine so zamorenou Ukrajinou a nefunkcnou elektrarnou.

Nakladiaky mozu byt aj prazde, ale na odstrasenie dost dobre.

Je to podobny spinavy trik, ako Zelenskeho vojaci braniaci sa v obyvanych mestach namiesto v lesoch, na poliach, na kopcoch a na leteckych zakladniach.
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

Príspevok od používateľa Trumpeta1978 »

Čína znovu zatvara tovarne, z dovodu nedostatku vody v priehradach-znizena vyroba elektriny

https://qz.com/china-heatwave-drought-f ... 1849427537
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

Príspevok od používateľa Trumpeta1978 »

Ťažko presne identifikovat, ale je pomerne znacna pravdepodobnost ze ide skutocne o prvy videný Atacms na Ua ! :)
https://twitter.com/i/status/1560887878192082946

/este je vysoka moznost podla zadnej casti ze su to PrSM strely, ktore maju dosah este viacej tj 400km/
Naposledy upravil/-a Trumpeta1978 v So 20 08, 2022 9:21 pm, upravené celkom 2 krát.
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

Príspevok od používateľa iceberg8 »

capitalcapital napísal: Pi 19 08, 2022 2:17 pm Na Legionellu asi zabudli, respektíve to ženú na hranu.

https://ekonomika.pravda.sk/ekologia/cl ... -2-stupne/
... že ohrev teplej vody bude znížený na maximálne 50 stupňov Celzia ...
ECDC pritom odporúča:
Zabezpečte, aby teplá voda dosahovala teplotu 50 °C – 60 °C (príliš horúca, aby ste v nej udržali ruky dlhšie ako niekoľko sekúnd) v celom vodovodnom systéme a stále cirkulovala.
roky mam TUV na cca 42C a zijem, ziadna legionella neprisla. Nikdy som nemal vodu zohriatu vyssie. uz by som mal byt pod zemou asi.. Ved ani jazera sa nevaria kazdy tyzden na 60-70C (mat 90C v bojleri to uz chce velke gule)
Odoslané z počítača
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

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Trumpeta1978 napísal: So 20 08, 2022 12:40 pm Čína znovu zatvara tovarne, z dovodu nedostatku vody v priehradach-znizena vyroba elektriny
To prevent power outages, authorities in Sichuan province—which relies on hydropower for about 80% of its energy needs have ordered factories to halt operations.

Hm zelené energie. Poručíme větru, dešti i globálnímu oteplování...
:idea: ,,Amatérski investori investujúci pasívne do indexového fondu budú mať v dlhodobom horizonte lepšie výnosy ako profesionálni manažéri fondov,, Buffett :mesec:
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

Príspevok od používateľa Trumpeta1978 »

Nerostné poklady Ukrajiny mizí, ruské drancování ji připravilo o biliony
https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/ekon ... .seznam.cz
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

Príspevok od používateľa Trumpeta1978 »

Dnes si pripomínane smutné výročie vstupu sovietskych okupačných vojsk do ČSSR

Zdroj: https://www.lidovky.cz/orientace/muj-21 ... roj=LN_top

Můj srpen 1968. Bylo to jako ve válečném filmu, po ulicích jezdily tanky, neustále se ozývala střelba

V neděli si připomínáme výročí počátku sovětské okupace, známé také jako „bratrská pomoc“. Okupace, která ukončila zdánlivé demokratické reformy a především sny o lepším životě v socialismu.

Onen rok 1968 byl pro mě ve všech ohledech „annus mirabilis“ – v červnu jsem totiž maturoval na SVVŠ (tak se tehdy nazývalo gymnázium) v Roudnici nad Labem, dostal jsem se bez problémů na vysněnou Přírodovědeckou fakultu UK a někdy od března jsem fascinovaně sledoval neuvěřitelný politický vývoj, kterým jsem byl naprosto nadšen. Zdálo se nám tehdy, že se před námi otevírá fantastická budoucnost. Naivně jsme si mysleli, že dubčekovský „socialismus s lidskou tváří“ je to, co vyřeší neduhy světa. Opravdu jsme si v těch několika jarních měsících připadali jako nejsvobodnější národ světa, opravdu jsme doslova milovali tehdejší představitele „strany a vlády“ i odvážné novináře a spisovatele.

Lepší tváře Východu
Počátkem srpna jsme se spolu se dvěma kamarády z gymplu vypravili na vandr do Bulharska a Rumunska. Do Burgasu jsme dojeli vlakem a pak jsme se stopem přemísťovali po pobřeží, spali pod širákem – a občas měli potíže s bulharskou milicí.

Jednou nás v Sozopolu zadrželi a předvedli na služebnu. Výslech se změnil ve dvouhodinovou politickou diskusi (pochopitelně v ruštině, však jsme z ní před dvěma měsíci maturovali), ve které jsme ohnivě hájili náš skvělý „socialismus s lidskou tváří“, zatímco milicionáři říkali, že Čechoslováci zrazují socialismus a že to brzy špatně dopadne.

Potom jsme stopem odjeli do Rumunska, ve kterém tehdy vládl mladý, sympatický a vůči SSSR poněkud odbojný Nicolae Ceausescu. Lidé nám tam vyjadřovali sympatie, a tak jsme byli ochotni vidět, že je tam všechno „objektivně“ mnohem lepší než v Bulharsku.

Od černomořského pobřeží jsme se následně vydali stopem na cestu zpět do naší progresivní vlasti. V Kluži jsme se v hospodě zase potkali s člověkem, který o sobě říkal, že je nevlastním bratrem Vasila Bilaka; neodvažovali jsme se mu říci, jak málo sympatický nám zrovna tento politik je, a oportunisticky jsme mu jen říkali, že je „velmi důležitý“ – odměnou nám bylo, že nás vzal přespat k sobě domů do pokoje pro hosty, který byl na rozdíl od zbytku bytu skutečně parádně zařízený.

Na rumunsko-maďarské hranice jsme dorazili 20. srpna velmi brzy ráno. Hraniční přechod byl ještě uzavřen a motali jsme se okolo něj tak nešikovně, že na nás vyběhl rumunský voják s namířeným samopalem a předvedl na strážnici. Nastalo vzrušené telefonování a za 20 minut přijeli dva důstojníci, kteří uměli na rozdíl od vojáka rusky. Rychle se vysvětlilo, že nejsme maďarští špioni, kteří právě pronikli ze spřátelené lidově demokratické země, ale že se pokoušíme dostat se směrem právě opačným.

V nejbližším maďarském městě jsme už únavné cestování stopem a spaní v pankejtě vzdali a za poslední peníze si zakoupili vlakovou jízdenku do Prahy. Už za tmy jsme dorazili do Budapešti a pak už jsme zmoženi únavou spali až do Prahy, kam měl náš vlak dorazit něco po páté ráno. Později se ukázalo, že to byl poslední vlak, který ještě projel přes hranice. Kolem čtvrté ráno jsem v polospánku zaslechl z chodbičky řeči jakéhosi pána o vojácích a tancích, ale myslel jsem si, že je to jen nějaký sen.

Pražské probuzení
Když jsme vystoupili na hlavním nádraží, bylo to jako v nějakém válečném filmu: po ulicích jezdily tanky, ale i náklaďáky, na jejichž korbě mladíci mávali zkrvavenými československými prapory. Na křižovatce Na Florenci stálo před semaforem několik aut; poslední z nich byl malý fiat. Hned za ním stála kolona tanků. Ten první troubil a dával najevo, že chce okamžitě projet a že ho nějaký semafor nezajímá. Po chvilce tank na fiata prostě najel, řidička v poslední chvíli vyskočila a kolemstojící už jen pomohli odnést placaté auto na chodník…

Na Václaváku byla spousta tanků a skoro se tam nedalo vydržet pro štiplavý kouř z jejich výfuků. Kolem tanků byla spousta lidí, kteří s vojáky vzrušeně diskutovali – ti však evidentně příliš nechápali, o co jde. Někteří lidé na tanky vyskakovali, krumpáči se snažili proděravět sudy s palivem, jiní zase zaplétali do pásů tlustá ocelová lana – bylo s podivem, že je vojáci nepostříleli… Šokující byl pohled na čerstvé díry v průčelí Národního muzea. Střelba se ozývala neustále, zvláště od rozhlasu. Snažil jsem se tam dostat, ale naštěstí se mi to pro nesmírný nával lidí nepodařilo.

Na Staroměstském náměstí se mi naskytl vskutku neobvyklý pohled – bylo tam rozmístěno několik protiletadlových kanónů s pětimetrovými hlavněmi. Dal jsem se tam do řeči s nějakým kapitánem; rozčileně jsem se ho ptal: „Jak dlouho tady budete?“ Podíval se na mě s opovržením (vypadal jsem po těch třech týdnech cestování stopem opravdu jako vagabund – špinavý, vlasy na ramena…) a řekl: „Dokud tady budou takoví, jako ty.“ Vlastenecky jsem mu namítal, že je to přece naše země, ale moc to na něj nezapůsobilo.

Potom jsem se prozaicky dopravil autobusem (kupodivu i v ten den jezdily!) do podřipské vesnice Straškova, kde jsme s rodiči bydleli. Maminka samozřejmě skoro omdlévala hrůzou, kde asi jsem…

Heroické konce bez herojů
Není bez zajímavosti, že pro naši rodinu byl 21. srpen vždy významným dnem – toho dne se v roce 1951 totiž narodil můj mladší bratr. Takže mě uvítal sdělením, že letos se na oslavu jeho narozenin dokonce střílelo…

To, co následovalo potom, bylo nejprve docela heroické. Věřili jsme, že si naši milovaní představitelé budou stát na svém, že vypukne mimořádný 14. sjezd KSČ, který jarní reformy ještě zradikalizuje a „bratrské vstupce“ vypudí, ale po týdnu už začalo jít všechno z kopce, i když jsme si ještě několik měsíců dělali iluze. Nejméně do května příštího roku bylo totiž poměrně svobodno – dobře si pamatuji, že dokonce ještě v červnu jsme spolu s několika dalšími kolegy-studenty ve veřejném autobusu rozjařeně zpívali na melodii „Johna Browna“ slova velmi žalovatelná (cosi o tom, že ráj na zemi nastane, teprve až se Gustávu Husákovi, Brežněvovi a komunistům stane cosi velmi nepříjemného – je mi až žinantní ta krvelačná slova opakovat).

Pak ale v dubnu 1969 nastoupil místo Dubčeka Husák a v srpnu 1969 už do demonstrantů stříleli „naši“ milicionáři, vojáci a esenbáci (a Dubček, v té chvíli předseda Národního shromáždění, to schvaloval). Na tohle, a vůbec na všechen ten hnus, který potom následoval, je ale už opravdu lepší raději ani nevzpomínat…

Ještě že i v SSSR se 15 let poté objevil jakýsi nový Dubček a v roce 1989 jsme se přece jen dočkali, a to dokonce něčeho podstatnějšího než jen „socialismu s lidskou tváří“ pod vedením „hodných komunistů“…

V srpnu 1968 však nikdo nečekal, že to bude trvat tak dlouho. Na druhou stranu, třeba v roce 1985 zase nikdo nečekal, že to „praskne“ tak brzy. A stalo se.
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Re: DENNÝ POKEC - AUGUST 2022

Príspevok od používateľa iceberg8 »

Trumpeta1978 napísal: Ne 21 08, 2022 6:19 am
Nerostné poklady Ukrajiny mizí, ruské drancování ji připravilo o biliony
https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/ekon ... .seznam.cz

Hm, a co taky Irak, kolko bilionov sa tam "prirpavilo" ? :)
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