Banky akcie , hedge fondy
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Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
To teda moc nechybělo:
Jak FED zachraňoval svět: 18. září hrozil zánik systému
http://www.tyden.cz/rubriky/byznys/svet ... 04795.html
Demokratický kongresman Paul Kanjorski ve videu nepřímo přiznává, že elektronický "run na banku" neboli hromadné vybírání účtů téměř způsobil kolaps celého finančního systému.
Ve čtvrtek 18. září v 11 hodin zaznamenal FED nadprůměrný výběr vkladů. Během dvou hodin bylo vybráno asi 550 miliard dolarů. Centrální banka zareagovala přísunem likvidity do systému v rozsahu kolem 105 miliard dolarů, ale ani to nepomohlo investorskou paniku zastavit. Elektronický run na banku byl zastaven teprve oznámenou garancí 250 tisíc dolarů na vklady.
Pokud by takové garance nebyly poskytnuty, do dvou hodin odpoledne by bylo podle odhadů centrální banky odčerpáno z trhů až 5,5 bilionu dolarů, což by vedlo ke kolapsu celého finančního systému a zřejmě i celé americké ekonomiky, s velmi vážnými důsledky i na globální trhy. Kanjorski dokonce tvrdí, že by to značilo konec ekonomického i politického systému v dnešní podobě.
Jak FED zachraňoval svět: 18. září hrozil zánik systému
http://www.tyden.cz/rubriky/byznys/svet ... 04795.html
Demokratický kongresman Paul Kanjorski ve videu nepřímo přiznává, že elektronický "run na banku" neboli hromadné vybírání účtů téměř způsobil kolaps celého finančního systému.
Ve čtvrtek 18. září v 11 hodin zaznamenal FED nadprůměrný výběr vkladů. Během dvou hodin bylo vybráno asi 550 miliard dolarů. Centrální banka zareagovala přísunem likvidity do systému v rozsahu kolem 105 miliard dolarů, ale ani to nepomohlo investorskou paniku zastavit. Elektronický run na banku byl zastaven teprve oznámenou garancí 250 tisíc dolarů na vklady.
Pokud by takové garance nebyly poskytnuty, do dvou hodin odpoledne by bylo podle odhadů centrální banky odčerpáno z trhů až 5,5 bilionu dolarů, což by vedlo ke kolapsu celého finančního systému a zřejmě i celé americké ekonomiky, s velmi vážnými důsledky i na globální trhy. Kanjorski dokonce tvrdí, že by to značilo konec ekonomického i politického systému v dnešní podobě.
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Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Co nebolo este moze byt ...bacteria napísal:To teda moc nechybělo:
Jak FED zachraňoval svět: 18. září hrozil zánik systému
http://www.tyden.cz/rubriky/byznys/svet ... 04795.html
...
Akurat ze namiesto infarktu gangrena ...
- Honzajs
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Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Doporučuji prostudovat:
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/printa ... =mwo030609
Jednoduchá změna pravidel by mohla otočit pohled investorů na banky o 180 stupňů
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/printa ... =mwo030609
Jednoduchá změna pravidel by mohla otočit pohled investorů na banky o 180 stupňů
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Honzajs napísal:Doporučuji prostudovat:
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/printa ... =mwo030609
Jednoduchá změna pravidel by mohla otočit pohled investorů na banky o 180 stupňů
V případě schválení by to opravdu znamenalo revoluci. A pokud by to navíc zahrnuli jako jedno z kritérií do oznámeného stress testu bank...
Myslím, že tohle asi neprojde - znamenalo by to změnu pravidel v půlce hry poté, co znárodnili Citi a jiné. Navíc, tenhle kšeft tisíciletí si zainteresovaní nenechají sebrat.
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
preco?? predpokladam,, ze si povedia, ze by takto usetrili kopu penazi....ja ale stale nechapem, naozaj by to pomohlo alebo by to bolo len zasa taka ina maskarada??
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Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Byla by to účetní maškaráda s velkým dopadem na rozvahy bank, snížily by se jejich budoucí ztráty (možná i ty minulé)
Připravím komentář pro web.
Připravím komentář pro web.
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Souhlasím, akcie by opravdu prolítly stropem.
Možná by to mohl být spouštěcí mechanismus pro krátkodobou rallye. V horizontu týdnů tento efekt ale vyprchá a jsme zase zpět. (Něco jako přednedávnem vzývaný "Obama efekt", který se nedostavil --- i když tahle nová zpráva je samozřejmě mnohem víc fundamentálnější )
Věřím, že tohle opatření by mělo mnohem větší váhu, pokud by bylo přijato před rokem...
Tedy: pro mě důležitá informace, která nesmí být opominuta, ale z dlouhodobého hlediska neměním nic na své dosavadní strategii.
Možná by to mohl být spouštěcí mechanismus pro krátkodobou rallye. V horizontu týdnů tento efekt ale vyprchá a jsme zase zpět. (Něco jako přednedávnem vzývaný "Obama efekt", který se nedostavil --- i když tahle nová zpráva je samozřejmě mnohem víc fundamentálnější )
Věřím, že tohle opatření by mělo mnohem větší váhu, pokud by bylo přijato před rokem...
Tedy: pro mě důležitá informace, která nesmí být opominuta, ale z dlouhodobého hlediska neměním nic na své dosavadní strategii.
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Report od Erste tvrdi, ze pohladavky voci krajinam vychodnej europy na tom nie su az tak zle ....
http://www.etrend.sk/ekonomika/europska ... 60930.html
http://www.etrend.sk/ekonomika/europska ... 60930.html
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Honzajs:
Bernake už se také přimlouvá za změnu standardů:
https://www.patria.cz/Zpravodajstvi/137 ... ituci.html
Martin52:
Erste a Rajfka (a UNIcredit) jsou v tom až po uši, proto téhle zprávě bych moc váhu nepřikládal.
(viz i diskuze pod článkem)
Bernake už se také přimlouvá za změnu standardů:
https://www.patria.cz/Zpravodajstvi/137 ... ituci.html
Martin52:
Erste a Rajfka (a UNIcredit) jsou v tom až po uši, proto téhle zprávě bych moc váhu nepřikládal.
(viz i diskuze pod článkem)
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Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Do levé lišty domovské strany mého webu jsem vložil odkaz na "proslavený" článek Death of Equities časopisu Business Week z roku 1979
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Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Krachuje evropské bankovnictví?
Analýza uvolněna i pro neregistrované čtenáře
Více na: http://pro-investory.cz/
Analýza uvolněna i pro neregistrované čtenáře
Více na: http://pro-investory.cz/
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Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Naked Short Sales Hint Fraud in Bringing Down Lehman:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
Data SEC hovoria jasnou recou - mnozstvo akcii nedodanych v case settlementu bolo v septembri 2008 57 krat vyssie nez bolo maximum v roku 2007. Vyzera to, ze sa niekto pekne nabalil...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
Data SEC hovoria jasnou recou - mnozstvo akcii nedodanych v case settlementu bolo v septembri 2008 57 krat vyssie nez bolo maximum v roku 2007. Vyzera to, ze sa niekto pekne nabalil...
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
http://www.zvedavec.org/komentare/2009/ ... au419meam7" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Vzdy mam zly pocit, ked konspiracne teorie si citam v mainstreamovych ci odbornych strankach.
http://www.patria.cz/Zpravodajstvi/1392 ... pezi-.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.patria.cz/Zpravodajstvi/1392 ... pezi-.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Zeby Whitney zmenila nazor na banky?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30073339" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30073339" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"Lay off on shorts, and don’t buy into selloffs," Whitney said. "The fundamentals are not getting any better but capital ratios should get better."
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
vsimli ste si uz to radikalne delenie na konspiracne a nekonspiracne? co tak jednoducho k tomu pristupovat overovanim, vyvracanim a logikou?slimak napísal:Vzdy mam zly pocit, ked konspiracne teorie si citam v mainstreamovych ci odbornych strankach.
http://www.patria.cz/Zpravodajstvi/1392 ... pezi-.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
len skoda, ze s toho grafu k clanku som uplne mimo..
hadam len ku G20 pre ilustraciu -
Příslib o něco více než jednoho bilionu dolarů na podporu světové ekonomiky je ve světle amerického plánu na odkup vlastních „toxických“ aktiv v objemu 1,3 bilionu dolarů poněkud směšný.
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Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Prosákly výsledky Stress tests??
Pokud je to pravda, jedem sešupem dolů...
Ještě to projdu a pak dám vědět
Pokud je to pravda, jedem sešupem dolů...
Ještě to projdu a pak dám vědět
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Vcera na patrii bol clanok, v ktorej bola veta, ze dnes budu zverejnene vysledky stress testu. Bol to kratky clanok a cital som ho niekedy poobede, pred vecerou, teraz ho neviem najst. Bol tam jeden komentar, ktory sa pytal prave na zdroj tej informacii, lebo podla neho mali byt zverejnene informacie 5. maja.Honzajs napísal:Prosákly výsledky Stress tests??
Pokud je to pravda, jedem sešupem dolů...
Ještě to projdu a pak dám vědět
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
http://turnerradionetwork.blogspot.com/ ... eults.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Die angebliche Sensationsmeldung von Hal Turner im Wortlaut
1) Of the top nineteen (19) banks in the nation, sixteen (16) are already technically insolvent.
2) Of the 16 banks that are already technically insolvent, not even one can withstand any disruption of cash flow at all or any further deterioration in non-paying loans.
3) If any two of the 16 insolvent banks go under, they will totally wipe out all remaining FDIC insurance funding.
4) Of the top 19 banks in the nation, the top five (5) largest banks are under capitalized so dangerously, there is serious doubt about their ability to continue as ongoing businesses.
5) Five large U.S. banks have credit exposure related to their derivatives trading that exceeds their capital, with four in particular - JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, HSBC Bank America and Citibank - taking especially large risks.
6) Bank of America's total credit exposure to derivatives was 179 percent of its risk-based capital; Citibank's was 278 percent; JPMorgan Chase's, 382 percent; and HSBC America's, 550 percent. It gets even worse: Goldman Sachs began reporting as a commercial bank, revealing an alarming total credit exposure of 1,056 percent, or more than ten times its capital!
7) Not only are there serious questions about whether or not JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs,Citibank, Wells Fargo, Sun Trust Bank, HSBC Bank USA, can continue in business, more than 1,800 regional and smaller institutions are at risk of failure despite government bailouts!
1) Of the top nineteen (19) banks in the nation, sixteen (16) are already technically insolvent.
2) Of the 16 banks that are already technically insolvent, not even one can withstand any disruption of cash flow at all or any further deterioration in non-paying loans.
3) If any two of the 16 insolvent banks go under, they will totally wipe out all remaining FDIC insurance funding.
4) Of the top 19 banks in the nation, the top five (5) largest banks are under capitalized so dangerously, there is serious doubt about their ability to continue as ongoing businesses.
5) Five large U.S. banks have credit exposure related to their derivatives trading that exceeds their capital, with four in particular - JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, HSBC Bank America and Citibank - taking especially large risks.
6) Bank of America's total credit exposure to derivatives was 179 percent of its risk-based capital; Citibank's was 278 percent; JPMorgan Chase's, 382 percent; and HSBC America's, 550 percent. It gets even worse: Goldman Sachs began reporting as a commercial bank, revealing an alarming total credit exposure of 1,056 percent, or more than ten times its capital!
7) Not only are there serious questions about whether or not JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs,Citibank, Wells Fargo, Sun Trust Bank, HSBC Bank USA, can continue in business, more than 1,800 regional and smaller institutions are at risk of failure despite government bailouts!
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
hm, celkom velke cisla tu lietaju:
http://ekonomika.sme.sk/c/4731650/menov ... larov.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://ekonomika.sme.sk/c/4731650/menov ... larov.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
- Honzajs
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Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Mluví se tam i o možném zestátnění. To je podle mě také dosti pravděpodobné. Proto je na akcie bank příliš brzy.
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Toto mi pride uz ako recesia, vytvorit index z firiem, ktore ziskali viac ako 1 mld dolarov pomoc od US vlady.
Hadajte aku vykonnost maju tieto firmy
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2 ... ilout.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Hadajte aku vykonnost maju tieto firmy
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2 ... ilout.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Něco ke stress testům,
Mike Mayo z CLSA sestavil svoji vlastní tabulku stress testu US bank,
okopíroval jsem ji sem:
http://xenetra.eu/view.php?cisloclanku=2009040002" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
pokud někdo chcete celý paper, který se jmenuje
Seven Deadly Sins of Banking
tak mi písnite na mail bacteria(a)centrum pošlu vám to.
TAdy je o tom paperu článek:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30066933/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Mike Mayo z CLSA sestavil svoji vlastní tabulku stress testu US bank,
okopíroval jsem ji sem:
http://xenetra.eu/view.php?cisloclanku=2009040002" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
pokud někdo chcete celý paper, který se jmenuje
Seven Deadly Sins of Banking
tak mi písnite na mail bacteria(a)centrum pošlu vám to.
TAdy je o tom paperu článek:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30066933/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Nejlepsí akcie bank na svete na budoucích 30 az 75 let pro nadprumerné dividendy a s mírným rustem kurzu a s nulovým rizikem : Banco Bilbao, Banco Santander, Barclays, HSBC, Wells Fargo, Bank of America. Za 80 let muze zase prijít taková veliká krize bank jak dnes. A pak nebude dobré, jako dnes neni dobré prodávat, ale nakupovat akcie bank.
Barclays PLC , Xetra + Frankfurt
+360% za 2 mesíce od brezna do kvetna 2009.
♥ ♥ ♥ Akcie a burza - jediná kniha, kterou potřebuješ http://forum.nr1a.com ♥ ♥ ♥ http://nr1a.com/STOCKS.htm
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Merrill Lynch:
Fed stress test paper missing inputs; dilution ahead
Methodology balances losses and pre-provision profit to
assess capital
Fed published “white paper” on stress-test methodology being applied to top 19
banks. Stress-test program is referred to as “SCAP”. Methodology consisted of
having banks project losses under previously announced “base” and “stress”
cases, along with loss-reserve building and pre-provision income, with
subsequent review and changes as necessary by regulatory supervisors. The net
of revenue and loss is then used to assess projected capital adequacy at end of
2010, including being adequately reserved for ’11 losses. The more-adverse case
appears to drive the requirement to keep an adequate "buffer" against losses,
although the “adverse” seems very close to where we are headed.
No prescribed loan-loss rates provided; trading-asset
stresses may be harsher.
kdo chce celý paper, tak mi písnite, má to 3 stránky, ale blbě se to sem kopíruje.
bacteria(a)centrum
Fed stress test paper missing inputs; dilution ahead
Methodology balances losses and pre-provision profit to
assess capital
Fed published “white paper” on stress-test methodology being applied to top 19
banks. Stress-test program is referred to as “SCAP”. Methodology consisted of
having banks project losses under previously announced “base” and “stress”
cases, along with loss-reserve building and pre-provision income, with
subsequent review and changes as necessary by regulatory supervisors. The net
of revenue and loss is then used to assess projected capital adequacy at end of
2010, including being adequately reserved for ’11 losses. The more-adverse case
appears to drive the requirement to keep an adequate "buffer" against losses,
although the “adverse” seems very close to where we are headed.
No prescribed loan-loss rates provided; trading-asset
stresses may be harsher.
kdo chce celý paper, tak mi písnite, má to 3 stránky, ale blbě se to sem kopíruje.
bacteria(a)centrum
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Roubini: Don't Believe the Stress Tests or the Bank Rally
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/ar ... Bank-Rally" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The rally is an illusion and the stress tests are a fraud due to overly optimistic assumptions. If you thought nationalization or bondholder restructuring were off the table, you were wrong. The banking sector, he says, will lose a total of $3.6 trillion, meaning it's basically entirely insolvent.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/ar ... Bank-Rally" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The rally is an illusion and the stress tests are a fraud due to overly optimistic assumptions. If you thought nationalization or bondholder restructuring were off the table, you were wrong. The banking sector, he says, will lose a total of $3.6 trillion, meaning it's basically entirely insolvent.
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
aka je sucasna trzna kapitalizacia Banc of America?
Mohla by byt okolo 50mld USD (http://www.finanzen.net/aktien/Bank_of_America-Aktie" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;)
Ak im chyba viac nez polovica trznej kapitalizacie ( a podla mna su stresstesty nastavene optimisticky) , kto im okrem statu da 34 mld USD?
Som zvedavy na tych optimistickych investorov. Asi nieco popredavaju, ale ci to bude stacit neviem....
Mohla by byt okolo 50mld USD (http://www.finanzen.net/aktien/Bank_of_America-Aktie" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;)
Ak im chyba viac nez polovica trznej kapitalizacie ( a podla mna su stresstesty nastavene optimisticky) , kto im okrem statu da 34 mld USD?
Som zvedavy na tych optimistickych investorov. Asi nieco popredavaju, ale ci to bude stacit neviem....
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Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Kapitalizace BAC je 70 mld, dnes v pre-market pokles o 10%.
Kdy jim dá kapitál? za jakou cenu? Ještě to bude hodně zajímavé.
Kdy jim dá kapitál? za jakou cenu? Ještě to bude hodně zajímavé.
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Trosku som zmateny z nakupnej horucky vo financnom sektore v poslednych dnoch.
Stress test bol vykonavany s pouzitim velmi priaznivych makro podmienok, ktore uz davno neplatia.
A pochybujem, ze budu platit ku koncu roka.
Preto som cakal, ze jeho vysledky nebudu mat ziadnu vypovednu hodnotu. Opak je pravdou.
Neviem si odpovedat ani na tuto otazku:
So while others are celebrating the end of the crisis, ask yourself this: If the government sees up to $599 billion in additional bank losses, why are they requiring banks "only" raise $75 billion? That suggests the government thinks the banking sector is overcapitalized by $525 billion.
Stress test bol vykonavany s pouzitim velmi priaznivych makro podmienok, ktore uz davno neplatia.
A pochybujem, ze budu platit ku koncu roka.
Preto som cakal, ze jeho vysledky nebudu mat ziadnu vypovednu hodnotu. Opak je pravdou.
Neviem si odpovedat ani na tuto otazku:
So while others are celebrating the end of the crisis, ask yourself this: If the government sees up to $599 billion in additional bank losses, why are they requiring banks "only" raise $75 billion? That suggests the government thinks the banking sector is overcapitalized by $525 billion.
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Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Jak tomu rozumím:
budou tu částku navyšovat postupně. Dovedete si představit ten masakr, kdyby oznámili, že bankám chybí 600 miliard?
De facto to oznámil oklikou, že se k této částce doberou časem. Kdo tomu rpzumí bude prodáat. Kdo si přečte jen novinový titulek, nakouoí. Pokud v tom jede bankovní kartel, tak jeho snahou je umožnit spřízněným stranám vystoupit.
Podívejte se do roku 2007. Na podzim banky oznamovaly ztráty v té výši, v jaké měly zajištěno financování. Dnes je to podobné.
Už v jugglerově vláknu jsem psal o informaci, že možný další propad je srpen/září. Tak schválně.
budou tu částku navyšovat postupně. Dovedete si představit ten masakr, kdyby oznámili, že bankám chybí 600 miliard?
De facto to oznámil oklikou, že se k této částce doberou časem. Kdo tomu rpzumí bude prodáat. Kdo si přečte jen novinový titulek, nakouoí. Pokud v tom jede bankovní kartel, tak jeho snahou je umožnit spřízněným stranám vystoupit.
Podívejte se do roku 2007. Na podzim banky oznamovaly ztráty v té výši, v jaké měly zajištěno financování. Dnes je to podobné.
Už v jugglerově vláknu jsem psal o informaci, že možný další propad je srpen/září. Tak schválně.
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
US Banky vyjednali lepsie vysledky stress testu pocas tyzdna kedy sa k vysledkom mohli vyjadrit.
Znizili pozadovane navysenie kapitalu o 35Mld na terajsich 75 Mld.
Najvyraznejsie sa to prejavilo u Citigroup.
Citigroup's (C.N) capital shortfall was reduced to $5.5 billion from about $35 billion after bank executives persuaded the Fed to include future capital-boosting impacts of pending transactions, the paper said.
Wells Fargo's (WFC.N) shortfall was cut to $13.7 billion from from $17.3 billion and Fifth Third's (FITB.O) was reduced to $1.1 billion from $2.6 billion.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsN ... 509?rpc=44" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Znizili pozadovane navysenie kapitalu o 35Mld na terajsich 75 Mld.
Najvyraznejsie sa to prejavilo u Citigroup.
Citigroup's (C.N) capital shortfall was reduced to $5.5 billion from about $35 billion after bank executives persuaded the Fed to include future capital-boosting impacts of pending transactions, the paper said.
Wells Fargo's (WFC.N) shortfall was cut to $13.7 billion from from $17.3 billion and Fifth Third's (FITB.O) was reduced to $1.1 billion from $2.6 billion.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsN ... 509?rpc=44" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Od Citibank:
Global Economic Flash
Stress Tests Results: Still on the Treadmill
The stress test results for the top 19 US bank holding companies came out in
line with the most recent leaks: a total capital need of $75 billion. While we
take these results as reassuring, the details are not likely to calm skeptics for
at least three reasons.
First, the political constraint from Congress on additional financing for the US
financial institutions is at odds with the desire of US authorities to reduce
uncertainty in the aftermath of the crisis. Skeptics would maintain that capital
needs greater than the resources already pledged would not be announced.
Second, criticism continues about the degree of stress built into the “more
adverse” scenario used by authorities to calculate the needed capital buffer.
Third, assumed earnings and details on changes in loan loss reserves used in
the test over this year and next are unclear. Skeptics are maintaining that the
earnings are too optimistic. They also complain that the detail on loan
portfolios is not detailed enough to independently verify their regulators’ work.
Skeptics, though, are likely wrong for two reasons. First, the average
percentage losses on the loan portfolio are very aggressive—some 32% higher,
for example, than the percentage losses assumed by the IMF in its most recent
report. The average loan loss percentage is also higher than the worst
percentage of the Great Depression.
Second, despite the naysayers, the greater disclosure of firm-level information
should allow some convergence among independent assessments of the
aggregate losses that, in turn, should calm concerns about systemic vulnerability.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The stress test results for the top 19 US bank holding companies came out in
line with the most recent leaks: a total capital buffer need of $75 billion. The
individual company detail also matched leaks. Banks immediately announced
plans to raise capital to meet the additional requirements, eliminating some of
the uncertainty embedded in the original plan, which gave the banks 30 days
to come up with a capital plan for the needed buffer. Overall, these results
should help calm concerns about the solvency of the US financial system. The
details, though, may not calm skeptics for at least three reasons, leaving us on
a treadmill for longer.
First, the political constraint from Congress on additional financing for the US
financial institutions is at odds with the desire of US authorities to reduce
uncertainty in the aftermath of the crisis. Skeptics would maintain that capital
needs greater than the resources already pledged would not be announced.
Such an announcement would be at odds with the desire to foster stability.
This political constraint increases the need for disclosing the details of the
regulators calculations—much of which is included in the firm-specific tables
included in the report.
Second, criticism continues about the degree of stress built into the “more
adverse” scenario used by authorities to calculate the needed capital buffer.
When the downside scenario was framed in February, it was meant to be an
outcome with 10-15% probability of occurring. Since then, though, the
consensus growth and unemployment forecasts have become more bleak.
Expected real GDP growth for 2009 and 2010, using Bloomberg consensus
data, is now -2.5% and 1.8%, respectively. The supervisors used a base case
of -2.0% and 2.1%. The figures relevant for the calculation of the capital
cushion under the adverse scenario, though, are still well away from the
consensus at -3.3% in 2009 and 0.5% in 2010. The likelihood of hitting those
numbers, though, is certainly greater than 10-15%. The degree of adversity
embodied in the unemployment assumption is lower than that of GDP. This
year the adverse rate—8.9%—which matches the current consensus and the
rate we reached with today’s payroll report!
Third, the transparency of the underlying earnings, reserves and portfolio
information, while greater than initially planned, is still less then some are
demanding. For example, detail is not provided to allow others to separate out
assumed net earnings over the next two years from net charge-offs on existing
loan loss provisions or the assumed provisions needed to meet 2011 expected
losses. That said, our banking team assumed earnings over this year and next
that are some $95 billion higher than the pretax earnings net of changes in
loan loss provisions (net charge-offs and a cushion for 2011 losses) presented
in the Fed analysis1. That amount is some 20% of the assumed losses by
regulators, a healthy cushion that implies the earnings figures are likely
conservative.
Despite these objections from skeptics, the results will likely lead to greater
confidence in the US banking system, as regulators and policymakers hope.
First, the average percentage losses on the loan portfolio are aggressive—some
32% higher, for example, than the percentage losses assumed by the IMF in its
most recent report (see Figure 1). The average loan loss percentage is also
higher than the worst percentage of the Great Depression. These more
aggressive loss assumptions should offset some of the concerns about the
likelihood of the adverse scenario that underpins the capital requirement.
Second, the greater disclosure of firm-level information, though not complete,
allows independent assessments of the aggregate losses that should calm
concerns about systemic vulnerability. While it may take some time for this
analysis to be done, the combination of the greater information, the alacrity of
the disclosure of the capital raising plans of the banks and positive effects of
improving financial conditions on the economic outlook itself, should all prove
helpful to ultimately getting us all off the “stress test treadmill”.
Global Economic Flash
Stress Tests Results: Still on the Treadmill
The stress test results for the top 19 US bank holding companies came out in
line with the most recent leaks: a total capital need of $75 billion. While we
take these results as reassuring, the details are not likely to calm skeptics for
at least three reasons.
First, the political constraint from Congress on additional financing for the US
financial institutions is at odds with the desire of US authorities to reduce
uncertainty in the aftermath of the crisis. Skeptics would maintain that capital
needs greater than the resources already pledged would not be announced.
Second, criticism continues about the degree of stress built into the “more
adverse” scenario used by authorities to calculate the needed capital buffer.
Third, assumed earnings and details on changes in loan loss reserves used in
the test over this year and next are unclear. Skeptics are maintaining that the
earnings are too optimistic. They also complain that the detail on loan
portfolios is not detailed enough to independently verify their regulators’ work.
Skeptics, though, are likely wrong for two reasons. First, the average
percentage losses on the loan portfolio are very aggressive—some 32% higher,
for example, than the percentage losses assumed by the IMF in its most recent
report. The average loan loss percentage is also higher than the worst
percentage of the Great Depression.
Second, despite the naysayers, the greater disclosure of firm-level information
should allow some convergence among independent assessments of the
aggregate losses that, in turn, should calm concerns about systemic vulnerability.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The stress test results for the top 19 US bank holding companies came out in
line with the most recent leaks: a total capital buffer need of $75 billion. The
individual company detail also matched leaks. Banks immediately announced
plans to raise capital to meet the additional requirements, eliminating some of
the uncertainty embedded in the original plan, which gave the banks 30 days
to come up with a capital plan for the needed buffer. Overall, these results
should help calm concerns about the solvency of the US financial system. The
details, though, may not calm skeptics for at least three reasons, leaving us on
a treadmill for longer.
First, the political constraint from Congress on additional financing for the US
financial institutions is at odds with the desire of US authorities to reduce
uncertainty in the aftermath of the crisis. Skeptics would maintain that capital
needs greater than the resources already pledged would not be announced.
Such an announcement would be at odds with the desire to foster stability.
This political constraint increases the need for disclosing the details of the
regulators calculations—much of which is included in the firm-specific tables
included in the report.
Second, criticism continues about the degree of stress built into the “more
adverse” scenario used by authorities to calculate the needed capital buffer.
When the downside scenario was framed in February, it was meant to be an
outcome with 10-15% probability of occurring. Since then, though, the
consensus growth and unemployment forecasts have become more bleak.
Expected real GDP growth for 2009 and 2010, using Bloomberg consensus
data, is now -2.5% and 1.8%, respectively. The supervisors used a base case
of -2.0% and 2.1%. The figures relevant for the calculation of the capital
cushion under the adverse scenario, though, are still well away from the
consensus at -3.3% in 2009 and 0.5% in 2010. The likelihood of hitting those
numbers, though, is certainly greater than 10-15%. The degree of adversity
embodied in the unemployment assumption is lower than that of GDP. This
year the adverse rate—8.9%—which matches the current consensus and the
rate we reached with today’s payroll report!
Third, the transparency of the underlying earnings, reserves and portfolio
information, while greater than initially planned, is still less then some are
demanding. For example, detail is not provided to allow others to separate out
assumed net earnings over the next two years from net charge-offs on existing
loan loss provisions or the assumed provisions needed to meet 2011 expected
losses. That said, our banking team assumed earnings over this year and next
that are some $95 billion higher than the pretax earnings net of changes in
loan loss provisions (net charge-offs and a cushion for 2011 losses) presented
in the Fed analysis1. That amount is some 20% of the assumed losses by
regulators, a healthy cushion that implies the earnings figures are likely
conservative.
Despite these objections from skeptics, the results will likely lead to greater
confidence in the US banking system, as regulators and policymakers hope.
First, the average percentage losses on the loan portfolio are aggressive—some
32% higher, for example, than the percentage losses assumed by the IMF in its
most recent report (see Figure 1). The average loan loss percentage is also
higher than the worst percentage of the Great Depression. These more
aggressive loss assumptions should offset some of the concerns about the
likelihood of the adverse scenario that underpins the capital requirement.
Second, the greater disclosure of firm-level information, though not complete,
allows independent assessments of the aggregate losses that should calm
concerns about systemic vulnerability. While it may take some time for this
analysis to be done, the combination of the greater information, the alacrity of
the disclosure of the capital raising plans of the banks and positive effects of
improving financial conditions on the economic outlook itself, should all prove
helpful to ultimately getting us all off the “stress test treadmill”.
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
Tak tenhle japončík stojí za poslech:
The Age of Balance Sheet Recessions
What Post-2008 U.S., Europe and China Can Learn from Japan 1990-2005
http://www.nomura.com/research/research ... /main.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
a tady je prezentace v pdf:
http://www.nomura.com/research/research ... slides.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The Age of Balance Sheet Recessions
What Post-2008 U.S., Europe and China Can Learn from Japan 1990-2005
http://www.nomura.com/research/research ... /main.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
a tady je prezentace v pdf:
http://www.nomura.com/research/research ... slides.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Banky akcie , hedge fondy
mě ten odkaz funguje, stačí jít na stránku té prezentace a tam je v dolní části odkaz na pdf.