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In reviewing the current environment for banks, Dimon said there could yet be a "second round" of losses "at commercial banks" from the U.S. economy's enduring slump and rising delinquencies and defaults among consumer loans, especially mortgages.

By Bradley Keoun
June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Leave it to Wall Street to profit from its own distress.

Merrill Lynch & Co., Citigroup Inc. and four other U.S. financial companies have used an accounting rule adopted last year to book almost $12 billion of revenue after a decline in prices of their own bonds. The rule, intended to expand the ``mark-to- market'' accounting that banks use to record profits or losses on trading assets, allows them to report gains when market prices for their liabilities fall.

The new math, while legal, defies common sense. Merrill, the third-biggest U.S. securities firm, added $4 billion of revenue during the past three quarters as the market value of its debt fell. That was the result of higher yields demanded by investors spooked by the New York-based company's $37 billion of writedowns from assets hurt by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market.

``They can post substantial gains as a result of a decline in their own creditworthiness,'' said James Cataldo, a former director of treasury risk management for the Federal Home Loan Bank of Boston and now an assistant professor of accounting at Suffolk University in Boston. ``It's completely legitimate, but it doesn't make sense by any way we currently have of thinking of net income.''

The paper profits have helped offset more than $160 billion of writedowns taken by U.S. financial-services companies during the past year. Now some investors and analysts say the winnings are illusory and may have to be reversed.

Ferin007 napísal:Tak zas tak žhavý to asi nebude:
http://www.kurzy.cz/zpravy/143918-stand ... ac-a-mbia/

Pokud se nepletu, snížení ratingů hrálo v tvým scénáři významnou roli.

Honzajs napísal:Obchodování s akciemi Ambac pozastaveno:

Honzajs napísal:MER odepisuje 9,7 mld USD
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=news

Od příštího týdne jsem na dovolené, takže ukončuji toto sepisování ztrát.
Kumulovaných 100 mld USD, kvůli kterým jsem toto téma otevíral, je již dávno bohatě překonaných.

Dear PSIA subscriber,

This month, I planned to give you the best way to profit on the bailout that's
underway in the housing sector.

As you know, nearly every financial tool the government has is now working to prop
up home prices. Various federal entities have put over $1 trillion in new capital
toward housing. But the big step occurred last month, when the Treasury gained the
authority to take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and spend an unlimited amount
of money on mortgages.

Fannie and Freddie are now buying mortgages and mortgage securities with both
hands. They're expanding their enormous $1 trillion-plus portfolio at roughly a 25%
annual clip. I can only imagine the amount of corruption in this system. Whose
mortgage bonds do you think Fannie and Freddie are buying with all that money?
The United States Treasurer is the former head of Goldman Sachs – so take a guess.
This is the ultimate Wall Street bailout: We'll never know how much money was
used, or where it went.

One thing is for sure: With the government's printing presses unleashed on home
prices, there's a very good chance they will stop declining. So I went looking for the companies who will directly gain from this action.

The answer is simple: mortgage insurance companies.

Take MBIA (NYSE: MBI) and Ambac Financial (NYSE: ABK). The market expects
these companies will end up insolvent because they underwrote insurance on billions
of dollars of mortgage securities. (Because the bonds were insured, they could be
rated AAA.) As defaults on mortgages rose, the value of these bonds plummeted and
the potential insurance claims soared.

The market is now pricing these two companies as if they're already bankrupt. But
the government bailout of the mortgage business means the huge losses these
companies expect may not materialize.

MBIA holds nearly $50 billion in capital on its balance sheet, not including $18 billion
it has reserved for paying claims. The stock is now worth just over $1.5 billion. MBIA
currently insures $34 billion of residential mortgage-backed bonds. Even assuming
the worst-case scenario, it's hard to imagine MBIA won't walk away from the debacle
with at least $25 billion in assets. This implies investors have the opportunity to
make roughly 15 times their money.

The numbers are similar, though not quite as safe, for Ambac. The company holds
about $20 billion in capital, not including $5 billion it has set aside to pay claims. It
has insured roughly $70 billion of real estate-backed bonds. You'd have to assume its
losses, after all recoveries, would exceed 20% to believe you couldn't make a lot of
money on the stock, which is currently valued under $1 billion.

But before I can recommend you buy these stocks, I have to go over their books with
a fine-tooth comb. And the books are incredibly complex. Just yesterday afternoon, I
found something I didn't like – the amount of exposure both firms have to second
liens and home-equity loans. These kinds of loans, unlike first mortgage loans,
frequently have zero recovery.

So I can't recommend these stocks to you – yet. I've got more digging to do. I need
to get more comfortable with the numbers. I can't exaggerate how difficult this
research has been. We need a wide margin of safety in these trades... And I don't
want to recommend them until I'm 100% sure.

MBIA is reporting its second-quarter results next Friday, August 8. I am going to wait
to hear its conference call and look at its earnings release before I complete my
research. That means I won't be able to publish my August letter until the following
Monday, August 11.

While I regret the delay, in this case it's worth it. These stocks could be a great buy –
the best recommendation of my entire career. But I have to make sure I understand
every single number. And that's a huge job.

(By the way... if you happen to have unique insights into these businesses, please
get in touch: feedback@stansberryresearch.com.)

Best regards,
Porter Stansberry

Honzajs napísal:Bankovní trh se od základů změní, větší regulace, menší zisky

http://www.ct24.cz/svet/32771-mocnosti- ... ancni-rad/
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/b ... dist=msr_2

Jenom mne zaráží, že nový systém budou vymýšlet lidé, kteří až donedávna na stávajícím systému nic špatného neviděli