Ako-investovať - fórum

Honzajs napísal:Jedno to není, nedělám, klasický short sale na akcii, ale long pozici v put opcích.

Honzajs napísal:Někdo, kdo umí dobře technickou analýzu a má náladu si zaspekulovat:
Obrovskou páku teď nabízejí srpnové put opce se strike mírně pod současnými cenami akcií (týká se MBI i ABK).

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- The Wall Street money-machine known as collateralized debt obligations is grinding to a halt, imperiling $8.6 billion in annual underwriting fees and reducing credit for everyone from buyout king Henry Kravis to homeowners.

Sales of the securities -- used to pool bonds, loans and their derivatives into new debt -- dwindled to $3.7 billion in the U.S. this month from $42 billion in June, analysts at New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. said yesterday.

The market is ``virtually shut,'' the bank said in a July 13 report.

Buyout groups rely on CDOs for 60 percent of the loans to finance U.S. acquisitions, according to JPMorgan.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A Fox-Pitt Kelton analyst upgraded the financial-guaranty sector Monday, saying that companies that insure bonds have sold off too much because of what he considers overblown worries about exposure to subprime mortgages.
"The financial guaranty stocks have been hit hard by subprime concerns, but we believe the reality is far less severe than current perceptions. Reality will eventually beat perceptions," analyst Gary Ransom told clients.
"Buying these stocks when fear is greatest has been a winning strategy," he added in a research note.
The analyst upgraded the entire sector to overweight. He also raised ratings on MBIA Inc (MBI : MBIA Inc
MBI58.94, +1.38, +2.4%) to outperform from in line and on Assured Guaranty (AGO : assured guaranty ltd com
AGO26.78, +0.05, +0.2%) to in line from underperform.
Subprime concerns grew earlier this month after Bear Stearns Cos. told clients that two of its hedge funds were worth almost nothing, having lost more than $1 billion partly from leveraged bets in the market for higher-risk home loans.
The value of some subprime assets has dropped sharply of late as rating agencies downgraded some securities and as some market participants were forced to sell positions to meet margin calls.
These assets are tough to value, partly because they don't trade much. If there's no clear market price or few trades, banks have to work out the value of the assets based on their own models.
Investors' fears got further stoked when Standard & Poor's says it planned to look more closely at insurers that provide guarantees on rated subprime residential mortgage-backed securities.
Against this backdrop, Fox-Pitt Kelton's Ransom said MBIA's shares are trading near an all-time low of 0.73 times estimated second-quarter 2007 book value -- a multiple that he called an anomaly.
The company has generally been cautious on mortgage exposures over the past few years, Ransom said, and is well positioned fo new opportunities.
"In the past, this has been a very attractive entry point. The stock has only briefly visited this valuation level and each time, it was an attractive buying opportunity. There were other credit concerns in the past that eventually dissipated without significant losses at the company," Ransom said.
His price target for MBIA is $73, implying potential upside of about 27% based on the stock's Friday closing price..

jonatanus napísal:
YOY% Change in Home Prices ?

percentualna zmena ceny za rok.
ked stal minuly rok dom 100korun a teraz stoji 110, tak to je 10% medzirocna (year-over-year) zmena.

"definition of prime may not be as high as some people think."

6:35AM MBIA Inc beats by $0.05 (MBI) 59.99 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $1.57 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.52; revenues rose 30.1% year/year to $390.6 mln. CEO comments, "Market conditions improved in the first half of the year as demand grew for our product and wider credit spreads improved pricing opportunities in certain segments. In addition, the quality of our insured portfolio has improved significantly, as several problem credits have been successfully remediated and our new business has high underlying ratings. We have carefully reviewed our credits backed by residential mortgages and remain comfortable with our exposure to that sector."

MBIA had net losses on financial instruments of $7.9 million in the quarter, largely due to widening credit spreads among collateralized debt obligations.

kadu napísal:http://www.ct24.cz/porady/investorsky_magazin/

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Sowood Capital Management LP, a hedge fund firm that had more than $3 billion in assets, told investors on Monday that its Alpha funds lost more than half their value this month amid turmoil in credit markets.

Sowood was uncertain that it could meet margin calls, so the firm said it sold almost all of the funds' assets to Citadel Investment Group LLC, a $14 billion hedge fund firm run by Kenneth Griffin.

Pokud by úroky šly vzhůru, lze čekat výrazný negativní dopad na akcie obecně, zejména však na bankovní sektor

Ladis napísal: Popravde ale uroky dluhopisu neovlivnuji rust akcii.
Jestli stoupnou uroky dluhopisu ze 4% na 8% , lide se budou i nadale zajimat o akcie , aby vydelali 10% az 30% za rok
A budou-li vyssi uroky , nemelo by to skodit ani bankam , ale naopak by mohly chtiti vice penez od klientu za uroky z kreditu.
http://nr1a.com/tec-akcie.htm

kadu napísal:Tim chci jen poukazat na tuhda kacirskou myslenku honzajse, jestli by to nemohlo polozit i ratingovou agenturu....

jonatanus napísal:
pokial maju problemy aj najvacsi borci jako bear-stearns a goldman sachs, to bude skorej "when genius failed", jak nejaky "podvod" na malom investorovi...

Honzajs napísal:No právě, a krize důvěry k tomu a jsme v...

Honzajs napísal:To nemá, máš pravdu. Ale přesto to stojí podle mne za to podívat se tomu pořádně na zoubek.
Minimálně z důvodu ochrany vlastních investice