radvan napísal:mozem quick question ? ... viem, ze veris dlhodobo plynu, ako si to tu prezentoval, ale si si isty, ze UNG je najlepsi sposob ako to zahrat ? ... nie zeby som nejako hlboko rozumel do toho ako je UNG postavene (kedze plyn nehram), ale ked nejaky fond drzi 80% open interestu pri futures, tak to je ako taka velryba na plytcine a velmi slusne to podla mna deformuje cenu a trh (
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsN ... 812?rpc=44" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;) ...
Nie som si istý, že je to najlepší spôsob.
Ale pre mňa je to najpohodlnejšia cesta.
Máš pravdu s tou veľrybou na plytčine (dobré prirovnanie).
Viem o tých problémoch, aj že nemôžu vydávať nové akcie a že sa regulátori sa na nich chystajú...
Cena podľa mňa ešte nie je deformovaná, ale hrozia problémy.
Tu je dnešný podobný článok ako ten, čo si tu dal ty.
Čítal som o tom ešte predtým, než som do toho investoval.
The $4.2 billion United States Natural Gas Fund, which follows natural gas prices by holding front-month contracts on a futures exchange such as the New York Mercantile Exchange, said in a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission that it could even reduce its holdings if the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, sets strict limits.
It would be "imprudent" to accept new investment and purchase more futures contracts "when we believe that CFTC may shortly mandate new limits that would have the effect of capping our exposure in these areas and forcing us to reduce our current holdings," said Katie Rooney, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Commodity Funds, the Calif.-based fund manager that manages UNG and other energy ETFs, in an email interview.
The fund is working to reduce futures holdings, but due to concerns about potential higher expenses or potential counter-party credit risk, "we will not rush into alternatives," she said.
As more investors have diversified into commodities in recent years, funds such as UNG have become so big that some legislators and analysts said they are pushing up commodities prices to levels that can't be justified by fundamentals. The CFTC last week ended a series of hearings on setting position limits on commodity futures. It is expected to draft new rules in a few months.
The $2.3 billion United States Oil Fund, the biggest oil ETF which is also managed by U.S. Commodity Fund, is facing the same pressure from regulators.
"It would be fairly unwise to start issuing more shares now given the uncertainty over the CFTC's eventual position limits," said Bradley Kay, ETF analyst at Morningstar. "They have been put into a very unusual situation due to their sheer size and very restrictive investment mandate.
"Nearly any potential course of action, from closing the fund to simply investing less than all of the assets, will be fairly extreme and with little precedent," he added.
ETFs such as UNG and USO attempt to mirror changes in the prices of underlying commodities. When investors buy more shares of UNG, the fund goes into the futures market and buys more natural gas contracts. By stopping the supply of new shares, UNG would, in essence, make itself a closed-end fund, with its share prices possibly deviating from the fundamental value of natural gas it holds.
"Whenever they end up closing the fund, especially when there is more demand moving in, that's going to create a premium," said Morningstar's Kay. "There is more buying pressure than can by supplied" by the fund.
UNG has already been trading at a premium to its underlying value since early June, when UNG said it was suspending issuing new shares as it waited for SEC approval, something not related with the CFTC. The fund said in Wednesday's filing that the SEC has approved new issuance, but "UNG's management has determined that UNG will not resume issuing units."
In Wednesday's trading, shares of UNG stood at $12.64, more than 4% higher than its net-asset value. A closed-end fund could also trade at a discount to its fundamental value if there is not sufficient demand for the shares.
UNG's decision to stop issuing new shares marks an end to the fund's explosive growth since its initiation in early 2007.
Through a combination of Nymex futures, futures traded on the ICE Exchange, and off-exchange swaps, the fund now holds the equivalent of about 1,200 trillion British thermal units of natural gas. In comparison, the amount of total outstanding contracts of Nymex front-month gas futures stood at 1,445 trillion as of Wednesday.
UNG, which is designed to track front-month futures contracts, has been exploring new ways to invest in futures markets without running afoul of regulatory limits.
In late July, after the CFTC asked the ICE to set position limits in a natural-gas contract, UNG switched part of its holdings to swap dealers, essentially letting swap dealers to buy futures contracts for the fund.
Setting position limits in futures markets could "increase ETFs' expense, their tracking error, and ultimately, it makes them less transparent, makes them a worse product," said Matt Hougan, editor of the Exchange-Traded Funds Report. "Eventually they will run out of bullets in ways to provide accurate exposure to commodities."
UNG said in its Wednesday's filing that it will consider "other actions" to achieve its investment objective, and the last resort will be liquidating part of the fund.
"To the extent UNG is unable to invest in appropriate futures contracts and other natural gas-related investments, or experiences material tracking error for an extended period of time, UNG may distribute cash to its unitholders as a way to reduce the amount of its investment holdings to a level that better allows UNG to meet its investment objective," UNG said in the filing.
,,Amatérski investori investujúci pasívne do indexového fondu budú mať v dlhodobom horizonte lepšie výnosy ako profesionálni manažéri fondov,, Buffett 
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