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Yes. The CPU and GPU demand has nothing to do with it. The reason is the car industry.

For some reason in early 2020 all the car industry execs were convinced that people would buy dramatically fewer cars in 2020, due to pandemic crashing demand. Because they have a religious aversion to holding any stock they decided to shift the risk over to their suppliers, fucking said suppliers over, as the car industry normally does when they expect demand shifts. The thing that made this particular time special as opposed to business as usual is that the car execs all got it wrong, because people bought way more cars due to pandemic rather than less, due to moving out of cities and avoiding public transit. So they fucked over their suppliers a second time by demanding all those orders back.

Now, suppose you're a supplier of some sort of motor driver or power conversion chip (PMIC) in early 2020. You run 200 wafers per month through a fab running some early 2000s process. Half your yearly revenue is a customized part for a particular auto vendor. That vendor calls you up and tells you that they will not be paying you for any parts this year, and you can figure out what to do with them. You can't afford to run your production at half the revenue, so you're screwed. You call up your fab and ask if you can get out of that contract and pay a penalty for doing so, and you reduce your fab order to 100 wafers per month, so you can at least serve your other customers. The fab is annoyed but they put out an announcement that a slot is free, and another vendor making a PMIC for computer motherboards buys it, because they can use the extra capacity and expect increased demand for computers. So far so normal. One vendor screwed, but they'll manage, one fab slightly annoyed that they had to reduce throughput a tiny bit while they find a new buyer.

Then a few months later the car manufacturer calls you again and asks for their orders back, and more on top. You tell them to fuck off, because you can no longer manufacture it this year. They tell you they will pay literally anything because their production lines can't run without it because (for religious reasons) they have zero inventory buffers. So what do you do? You call up your fab and they say they can't help you, that slot is already gone. So you ask them to change which mask they use for the wafers you already have reserved, and instead of making your usual non-automotive products, you only make the customized chip for the automotive market. And then, because they screwed you over so badly, and you already lost lots of money and had to lay off staff due to the carmaker, you charge them 6x to 8x the price. All your other customers are now screwed, but you still come out barely ahead. Now, of course the customer not only asked for their old orders back, but more. So you call up all the other customers of the fab you use and ask them if they're willing to trade their fab slots for money. Some do, causing a shortage of whatever they make as well. Repeat this same story for literally every chipmaker that makes anything used by a car. This was the situation in January 2021. Then, several major fabs were destroyed (several in Texas, when the big freeze killed the air pumps keeping the cleanrooms sterile, and the water pipes in the walls of the buildings burst and contaminated other facilities, and one in Japan due to a fire) making the already bad problem worse. So there are several mechanisms that make part availability poor here:

1. The part you want is used in cars. Car manufacturers have locked in the following year or so of production, and "any amount extra you can make in that time" for a multiple of the normal price. Either you can't get the parts at all or you'll be paying a massive premium.

2. The part you want is not used in cars, but is made by someone who makes other parts on the same process that are used in cars. Your part has been deprioritized and will not be manufactured for months. Meanwhile stock runs out and those who hold any stock massively raise prices.

3. The part you want is not used in cars, and the manufacturer doesn't supply the car industry, but uses a process used by someone who does. Car IC suppliers have bought out their fab slots, so the part will not be manufactured for months.

4. The part you want is not used in cars, and doesn't share a process with parts that are. However, it's on the BOM of a popular product that uses such parts, and the manufacturer has seen what the market looks like and is stocking up for months ahead. Distributor inventory is therefore zero and new stock gets snapped up as soon as it shows up because a single missing part means you can't produce your product.

glengoolie napísal: ↑Ut 19 10, 2021 4:16 pm dnes som cital ze vyrobcovia uz nemienia vyrabat stare technologie, ktore vyrobcovia aut prave chcu kvoli overenej a spolahlivej technologii a dizajnu. ma to logiku, kedze autickari znizili zakazky tusim v 2017, tak vyrobcovia presli(dedikovali kapacity) na lukrativnejsie technologike a cipy(primarne mobilne telefony a podobne) a pre nich uz teda nema vyznam vracat sa naspet na starsiu a lacnejsiu(mensia marza, mensi odbyt) technologiu. to znamena ze bud si autickari zacnu vyrabat cipy sami, co sa moze kludne stat ak sa spoja. alebo budu musiet prekopat komplet celu elektroniku uplne vo vsetkych autach, co si myslim ze je absolutne nemozne. takze myslim ze stredna cesta bude taka ze plno automobiliek utne existujuce modely a zacne vyrabat kompletne nove modely aut postavenych prave na tychto novych technologiach. vyvoj a test bude trvat roky takze si myslim ze automobilky zaziju prepad v predajoch asi na dalsie 2-5 rokov.

The race for semiconductor supremacy | FT Film

The US is bidding to regain a leading role in advanced chip manufacturing, to de-risk critical supply chains, and to combat China's rise as a technological superpower
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Preteky o nadvládu v polovodičoch | FT film

USA sa uchádzajú o znovuzískanie vedúcej úlohy v pokročilej výrobe čipov, o zbavenie sa rizika kritických dodávateľských reťazcov a o boj proti vzostupu Číny ako technologickej superveľmoci.

Joki napísal: ↑Pi 29 09, 2023 8:16 pm USA sa uchádzajú o znovuzískanie vedúcej úlohy v pokročilej výrobe čipov, o zbavenie sa rizika kritických dodávateľských reťazcov a o boj proti vzostupu Číny ako technologickej superveľmoci.

Spoločnosť TSMC má za svojich klientov najvýznamnejšie spoločnosti vyrábajúce zariadenia ako sú Apple, Qualcomm, Nvidia a Advanced Micro Devices. Väčšina popredných polovodičových spoločností ako AMD, Apple, ARM, Broadcom, Marvell, MediaTek a Nvidia sú zákazníkmi TSMC, rovnako ako viaceré novo vznikajúce spoločnosti. Popredné spoločnosti zaoberajúce sa programovateľnými logickými zariadeniami ako Xilinx tiež využívajú alebo využívali služby TSMC. Niektorí výrobcovia integrovaných obvodov, ktorí majú svoje vlastné výrobné zariadenia, ako napríklad Intel, NXP, STMicroelectronics a Texas Instruments, zadávajú časť svojej výroby spoločnosti TSMC[2][5] alebo tam časť svojej produkcie outsourcujú.

JUGGLER napísal: ↑Pi 29 09, 2023 9:49 pm Zarazilo ma to slovíčko že ,,znovuzískanie,, . To znamená, že USA už stratili pozíciu lídra?

Today ASML Holding NV (ASML) has published its 2023 third-quarter results.
Q3 net sales of €6.7 billion, gross margin of 51.9%, net income of €1.9 billion
Quarterly net bookings in Q3 of €2.6 billion2 of which €0.5 billion is EUV
ASML expects Q4 2023 net sales between €6.7 billion and €7.1 billion and a gross margin between 50% and 51%
ASML confirms its expectation to grow net sales towards 30% in 2023
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Spoločnosť ASML Holding NV (ASML) dnes zverejnila svoje výsledky za tretí štvrťrok 2023.
Čisté tržby za tretí štvrťrok vo výške 6,7 miliardy EUR, hrubá marža 51,9 %, čistý zisk 1,9 miliardy EUR
Štvrťročné čisté rezervácie v 3. štvrťroku vo výške 2,6 miliardy EUR2, z čoho 0,5 miliardy EUR predstavuje EUV
ASML očakáva čisté tržby za 4. štvrťrok 2023 medzi 6,7 miliardy až 7,1 miliardy EUR a hrubú maržu medzi 50 % a 51 %
ASML potvrdzuje svoje očakávanie, že v roku 2023 vzrastie čistý predaj na 30 %

PRESS RELEASE - VELDHOVEN, THE NETHERLANDS, OCTOBER 19, 2022
Today ASML Holding NV (ASML) has published its 2022 third-quarter results.
Q3 net sales of €5.8 billion, gross margin of 51.8%, net income of €1.7 billion
Record quarterly net bookings in Q3 of €8.9 billion2

For fiscal 2023, Arm’s gross margin — the percentage of profit left after accounting for the costs of good sold — was 96%, because the company makes much of its money from royalties and isn’t delivering hardware.
————

Vo fiškálnom roku 2023 bola hrubá marža spoločnosti Arm – percento zisku, ktoré zostalo po započítaní nákladov na predaný tovar – 96 %, pretože spoločnosť zarába veľa peňazí z licenčných poplatkov a nedodáva hardvér.

MiBi napísal: ↑Po 15 01, 2024 11:59 am Juhokórejské firmy investujú 470 miliárd dolárov do vybudovania najväčšieho klastra na výrobu čipov. Jeho súčasťou bude 13 nových fabrík na polovodiče a tri výskumné zariadenia, nová infraštruktúra doplní existujúcich 21 tovární.
Firmy Samsung Electronics a SK Hynix sa chystajú ako súčasť zámeru postaviť svoje najmodernejšie polovodičové továrne vo J.Korei.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... making-hub

Objednávky strojov ASML na výrobu čipov rástli v posledných mesiacoch 2023 trojnásobne. Štvrťročné výsledky firmy naznačujú, že trh s polovodičmi sa zotavuje. Holandská firma kľúčové stroje vyrába ako jediná.

Najhodnotnejšia technologická firma v Európe od októbra do konca decembra získala objednávky za vyše deväť miliárd eur. V predchádzajúcom kvartáli to bola len tretina, 2,6 miliardy.

Ročné tržby firmy tiež rástli, a to o skoro o tretinu, na 27,6 miliardy eur pri zisku 7,8 miliardy.

ASML vyrába litografické stroje, bez ktorých sa nedajú vyrobiť najvyspelejšie počítačové čipy. Nárast záujmu o ich produkty tak môže naznačovať širšie oživenie trhu.

Najväčším odberateľom ASML bola v 3. aj 4. štvrťroku Čína, ktorá sa snažila nazhromaždiť čo najviac výrobných zariadení pred tým, ako ich vývoz od Nového roka začala obmedzovať holandská vláda.

ASML tiež koncom roka začala dodávať svoj najmodernejší, extrémne ultrafialový litografický stroj americkej spoločnosti Intel.

Joki napísal: ↑Ut 05 03, 2024 10:53 am Intel Receives ASML’s First High NA EUV system
Video má 57s.

O intel mi tak nešlo , ako o inštaláciu od ASML

https://youtu.be/3PCtf1ONYMU?si=sS-N3x6FxoRDbkXF

• EUV luc prechadza seriou sosoviek, resp. zrkadiel (Zeiss), ktore su takmer neuveritelne hladke:

  Flatness is also crucial for EUV reflection. The mirrors are polished to a smoothness of less than one atom’s thickness. To put that in perspective, if the mirrors were the size of Germany, the tallest ‘mountain’ would be just 1 millimeter high.

• Pohyblive suciastky pri prevadzky dosahuju extremne zrychlenia, az 20G kvoli preciznemu pohybu pri litografii. Pre porovnanie, je to priblizne 3-az-4-nasobok zrychlenia F1 pri zrychlovani a brzdeni, a je to vyse 2-nasobok maximalneho zrychlenia stihaciek F-35 ci F-16.
• To vsetko pri potrebe eliminacie vplyvu vibracii, kedze aj malinke vibracie sposobuju defekty v polovodicoch, a uplnej sterilite.

Intel orders ASML system for well over $340 mln in quest for chipmaking edge.
ASML said on Wednesday it had received orders for five of its next- generation lithography machines, plus an order for an even newer model that is still being designed.

Understanding the Semiconductor Value Chain: Key Players & Dynamics
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Pochopenie hodnotového reťazca polovodičov: Kľúčoví hráči a dynamika

MiBi napísal: ↑St 03 04, 2024 2:13 pm TSMC po zemetrasení zastavila výrobu niektorých čipov na Taiwane a evakuovala továrne

https://www.patria.cz/zpravodajstvi/583 ... -cipu.html