Ropa

[Glogol]

Spojené arabské emiráty oznámily, že k 1. květnu opustí skupiny OPEC a OPEC+ a postupně navýší svou produkci ropy (ČTK)

Spojené arabské emiráty, tretí najväčší producent ropy v rámci OPEC, oznámili, že s platnosťou od 1. mája opustia OPEC a OPEC+. Tento krok by oslobodil SAE od kartelových produkčných kvót, čo by im umožnilo ťažiť ropu na plnú kapacitu, stanoviť si vlastnú exportnú stratégiu a stanovovať ceny ropy bez skupinových obmedzení. To by mohlo vydláždiť cestu k vyššej produkcii SAE, silnejším štátnym príjmom a tlaku na pokles svetových cien ropy.

V podstate pre nás spotrebitelov skvela sprava. Opec tým pádom bude mať menšiu páku do buducna na škrtenie produkcie.

JJ - uz len prepravit cez Hormud

[Adammd]

Aby im to tam nahodou nevyhorelo, raz pobozkas prsten...

[MiBi]

[osamely chodec]

ako sledujem ropnych analytikov na X tak vidim dve skupiny :
1. Najhorsie mame za sebou a ceny sa budu postupne stabilizovat (znizovat)
2.Najhorsie mame pred sebou a uz sme za bodom zlomu (uz to musi prist) situacia sa v case zacne zhorsovat a aj v USA budu pred dilemou podstatne znizit vyvoz aby ceny v USA nevystrelili astronomicky, alebo celit podstatnemu zvyseniu cien PHM. Proste budu chybat fyzicke barely ropy.

Tak uvidime, ja som si vsadil na cislo 2. Plyn v EU sledujem a optimizmus trhu co sa tyka ceny nezdielam, ale uvidime...

Tak pan trh si zacina uvedomovat problem...

[Trumpeta1978]

Irán a US teraz hraju hru "kto skôr uhne".
Irán ma tromf, že je to tvrdá diktatura, takže vzbura obyvatelstva kvoli nizkej zivotnej urovni je zatial malá.
Na druhej strane, ak Iran nebude moct do cca 2-3tyzdnov znovu exportovat svoju ropu tankermi, tak sa mu zaplnia skladovacie moznosti a bude musiet prejst k zatváraniu vrtov, čomu sa bude chciet urcite vyhnut.

Čo sa tyka US, tam je problemom, že čím dlhšie su US marine v prielive, tým viacej narastaju naklady.
Podla War Powers Resolution musi prezident po 60dnoch voj. operacii ziskat od kongresu suhlas alebo konflikt skoncit.
Senat uz hlasoval ohladom obmedzenia prezidentskych pravomoci a dopadlo to iba tesne 50–47 v prospech Trumpa.

[jaroslav80]

On May 2, the Ministry of Commerce of China issued an injunction to block US restrictions against five independent Chinese oil refineries that have been sanctioned for importing Iranian oil and utilizing so-called ‘shadow fleets’.
China has been inching towards this decision for the past year. The Shouguang Luqing refinery in Shandong province was the first to be added to the sanctions list on March 20, 2025. By October, the US had imposed restrictions on three other ‘teapot’ refineries.
Finally, on April 24, 2026, Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery Co., Ltd., fell under sanctions. With a capacity of 400,000 barrels per day, the facility in Dalian exceeds the combined capacity of the four previous refineries. This seems to have been the tipping point, prompting the Chinese government to shift from verbal threats to decisive action.
The legal groundwork has been in place for some time: a local law against foreign sanctions was passed in 2021, but remained largely symbolic due to the absence of implementing regulations. The delay made sense: the law was adopted during US President Donald Trump’s first term. After the thaw in US-China relations under [former US President Joe] Biden, it was put on hold. Ultimately, the directive to activate this law was only signed by Chinese Premier Li Qiang in March 2025.
Finally, on April 14, 2026, China implemented the Regulations on Countering Improper Extraterritorial Jurisdiction by Foreign States. These regulations contain 20 articles, including provisions that allow the Chinese government to add individuals and organizations involved in discriminatory measures against China to its sanctions list. Those included in the list could be expelled from China or denied entry; their assets could be frozen, and they may be banned from doing business with any individuals or organizations in China.

Traditional Chinese policy is avoiding direct confrontation against USA, steering clear of disputes, seeking loopholes, and achieving objectives through subtle means. However, faced with a severe oil shortage, China was forced to enter into a more direct conflict with the US. The United States is unlikely to retaliate effectively, and China’s decision will likely lead to the establishment of a transparent alternative trading and payment infrastructure.
All the major decisions have long been made in this regard (for example, the creation and implementation of CIPS, China’s equivalent to SWIFT), but like the sanctions law, the alternative payment infrastructure has remained largely dormant for years.
For the past four years, Russia has been calling on its partners to take action: finding an alternative to the dollar, departing from American control over international trade, and replacing semi-clandestine payment schemes with a solid, transparent, and reliable system. And for the past four years, Russia’s trading partners shrugged off these calls, implying, ‘You want it? You go do it. We don’t want problems with the US.’ Iran found itself in a similar position, but unlike Russia, it relied on China as its de facto sole buyer.
Now, ironically, it’s Trump who is forcing China to change this approach. In doing so, he risks shooting himself in the foot, since his actions may provoke a new, tougher, and more decisive Chinese policy. Beijing has all the political, economic, and financial tools at its disposal to make this happen.

Zdroj: RT.com

[MiBi]

Odkedy sa obnovil tok ruskej ropy, Slovensko má najdrahšiu naftu aj benzín vo V4

https://e.dennikn.sk/5315469/odkedy-sa- ... zin-vo-v4/

[Trumpeta1978]

Ceny ropy klesajú po správach o tom, že USA a Irán sa blížia k dohode o ukončení vojny
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/oil-pri ... ffort.html

Ceny ropy klesli po tom, čo prezident Donald Trump oznámil, že USA pozastavia svoju námornú eskortu v Hormuzskom prielive.
Trump v príspevku na Truth Social uviedol, že rozhodnutie bolo čiastočne založené na „skutočnosti, že sa dosiahol veľký pokrok smerom k úplnej a konečnej dohode“ s Iránom.

[MiBi]

https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/PuYLiDg ... fografika/
Objem ruskej ropy sme získali z výročných správ Transpetrolu, ktorý prevádzkuje ropovody na Slovensku. Pri prepočtoch ton ropy na eurá sme brali do úvahy, že jedna tona ruskej ropy Urals obsahuje 7,28 barelu. Počet barelov sme vynásobili priemernou sumou za barel za daný rok. Cena je v amerických dolároch. Na ropu prepravenú ropovodom sa nevzťahovalo obmedzenie štátov G7, ktoré stanovilo maximálnu cenu na 60 USD za barel. Slovnaft však mohol platiť aj viac. Priemernú ročnú cenu za barel ropy Urals zverejňuje ruské ministerstvo energetiky. Doláre sme premenili priemerným kurzom voči euru za daný rok.

Pri medzinárodnom porovnaní sme použili dáta neziskovej organizácie CREA - https://www.russiafossiltracker.com/